How Randomness Rules Our Lives

Fortune is fair in potentialities not in outcome. Use to leverage the cities you live in, leverage uncertainy for benefit.

Transcript

1. Random Sparks - How Randomness Rules Our Lives
2. How it all started
3. How it all started
4. Lets play a game Guess the next number 1 2 3 5 ? 1 2 3 5 8 ? 1 2 3 5 8 9
5. Coin Toss Game
6. 5 Coin tosses
7. 60 coin tosses - Repeated Once
8. 60 coin tosses - Repeated 10 times
9. 60 coin toss - repeated 20 times
10. Average ( 60 coin tosses - repeated 20 times)
11. Average of 1000 repetitions
12. Average of 1 Lakh repetitions of 60 coin tosses
13. Average of 1 lakh coin tosses
14. More Data - Repetitions Vs Time
15. 1 in a million chance
16. Human perspective • Humans systematically fail to see role of chance in successful venture • Success is due to competence • Failures are attributed to incompetence • Money/Position is interpreted as sign of success and competence
17. Examples of this behavior • Richard Fuld • Mark Canton • Sherry Lansing • Geoffrey Chew “Believe me, it is tough to deal with the social consequences of the appearance of continuous failure. We are social animals; hell is other people.” - Naseem Taleb
18. Product Market Fit Leaders are a product of their time - Dr Sharad Joshi.
19. Illusion of Being in Control • Humans always look at causation • We always take comfort in belief that someone is in control of the situation • We always want to confirm our beliefs and ideas
20. Need for Illusion of control In absence of this illusion, we die • Survival in Nazi concentration camp often depended upon ability to preserve area of independent control • Prior sense of helplessness and lack of control often lead to illness • If events are random, we are not control. If we are in control events are not random.
21. Oh no... • Even if things are random, opting in is still under your control • Opt for events you can bet on happening vs events not happening • Given one’s ability, the more one tries more is chance of success. Laws of probability rules...
22. Optionality in Life Given: Salary of 20 Lakh rupees If you leave your job right now to start a business • What is the downside? • What is the upside?
23. MTTR • It provides a nice way to deal with unpredictable events • It is more robust • It opens up more options
24. Do you leverage City • Go out meet different people • Explore different opportunities
25. Ability and Success The cord that tethers ability to success is both loose and elastic. It is easy to see fine qualities in successful books or to see unpublished manuscripts, inexpensive vodkas, or people struggling in any field as somehow lacking. It is easy to believe that ideas that worked were good ideas, that plans that succeeded were well designed, and that ideas and plans that did not were ill conceived. And it is easy to make heroes out of the most successful and to glance with disdain at the least. But ability does not guarantee achievement, nor is achievement proportional to ability. And so it is important to always keep in mind the other term in the equation—the role of chance…What I’ve learned, above all, is to keep marching forward because the best news is that since chance does play a role, one important factor in success is under our control: the number of at bats, the number of chances taken, the number of opportunities seized.” ― Leonard Mlodinow, The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
26. Best Advice I’ve got Fortune is fair in potentialities not in outcome.