Working with Theory of Change and Complexity

In this lunchtime talk, Richard Allen, Principal Research and Consultant at TIHR, presents Theory of Change as both a framework and reflective practice when managing complexity.

People could wonder, with good reason, why something like Theory of Change, with its strong linear and logic model foundations, could be used for managing in complexity. Theory of Change is already well established as an invaluable tool in theory based programme evaluation. There is now a rapidly growing practice of using it in the design and implementation of complex programmes. What is the attraction? And, How does it work? Drawing on the TIHR’s recent work, and research into Theory of Change use in the ‘not for profit sector’, we will be offering answers to these questions and exploring ways in which 'Theory of Change' is both a framework and a reflective practice.

Transcript

1. Working with Theory of Change and Complexity
   Richard Allen, Principal Researcher & Consultant, TIHR
   23rd March 2016
   

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2. The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations (TIHR)
   Founded in 1947 and dedicated to the study of human relaKons for the beMerment
   of working life. We work with organizaKons as systems to help them achieve
   change and greater effecKveness. We are known for our innovaKve working and
   capacity to surface and address hidden issues.
   We provide:
   •  OrganizaKonal development and change consultancy
   •  Coaching and professional development
   •  EvaluaKon and acKon research
   •  Learning from organizaKonal change and innovaKon
   

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3. “The essence of tyranny is
   the denial of complexity”.
   Jacob Burckhardt, cultural historian,
   writer and art scholar, (1818 – 1897)
   

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4. Chaos and Complexity
   

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5. Working in Complexity
   I live in a self
   organizing system
   which means I’m on
   the edge of chaos
   Cause does
   not = effect
   I can see a lot
   of nested
   systems in
   here
   Everywhere I
   look there are
   repeated
   irregular forms
   It’s all a bit
   fractal!
   I’m
   interested
   in the
   emergent
   

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6. Complex Adaptive Systems
   Some features …
   •  Non-linear . Small causes can have large effects
   •  Fractal – repeaKng irregular paMerns
   •  Unpredictability – operaKng at the edge of chaos
   •  Dynamic – the whole is greater than the sum of its
   parts - Emergence
   •  EvoluKon is irreversible
   •  PredicKon is not possible
   

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7. Experiencing complexity
   

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8. Working with the emergent
   Community Change Programmes means dealing with
   the emergent from complex “systems of
   problems” (Ackoff 1974) or “Wicked Problems” (Rittel
   and Weber 1973)
   e.g.
   Poverty
   Climate change
   Mental ill health
   Domestic Violence
   Attachment
   

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9. Addressing system complexity
   Model it or bound it?
   Bounded raKonality (Simons)
   Boundary as choice
   Social ConstrucKon
   Not barrier but interface
   

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10. Simple, Complicated or Complex?
    • A recipe
    • Moon Rocket
    • Raising a child
    ConKngency or ElecKve Complexity?
    

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11. Proposed Model of System Change (Fishman-Foster et al, 2007, p. 199)
    Working with Complex System Change
    

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12. Theory as Complex System Boundary
    Making
    Social Inclusion/Exclusion
    Social Capital Theory
    Social Judgements Theory
    AMachment Theory
    Built from
    ‘SubstanKve
    Theory’ – context
    specific and built
    from a number of
    cases
    The phenomena
    of interest
    emerge at a
    different level
    from the
    interacKon that
    gave rise to them
    

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13. Introducing Theory of Change “If” then
    “What”?
    Program theory: “an explicit theory or model of how an intervenKon …
    contributes to a chain of intermediate results and finally to the intended or
    observed outcomes.” (Funnell and Rogers 2011)
    +
    An “implementaKon theory (that) focuses on how the program is carried
    out”(Weiss 1997). This can also be called a ‘logic model’.
    ToC can be a framework and a process
    Programme Theory +ImplementaKon Theory = Theory of Change
    13
    

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14. Theory of Change
    •  “I call the combinaKon of program theory and implementaKon theory the
    program’s ‘theories of change’” (Weiss, 1995, p.58).
    •  Change is generated not by the programme acKviKes but by “the response the
    acKviKes generate”(Weiss 1997, p.46)
    

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15. Agency
    “Every programme is packed with beliefs, assumpKons and hypotheses
    about how change happens – about the way humans work, or
    organisaKons, or poliKcal systems, or eco-systems. Theory of change is
    about arKculaKng these many underlying assumpKons about how
    change will happen in a programme.” (Rogers)
    

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16. The Progress of Theory of Change
    From evaluaKon to programme planning
    Theory Driven
    Programme
    Management?
    Unpacking
    the Black Box
    Theory
    Driven
    Complexity
    

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17. Theory of
    Change format
    Linking acKviKes
    to results and
    impact
    Useful when
    objecKves and
    acKviKes can be
    idenKfied and
    Kghtly planned
    beforehand
    From Patricia Rogers (2014) Theory of Change UNICEF
    

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18. The Paradox
    • Linear and complex are not compaKble
    • But a strong interest in using it for working in
    complexity
    • An example of sensemaking – lost in the Alps
    • ToC as a raKonality carrier
    • Coping with dissonance
    

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19. “TOC Thinking”
    Working with the
    systemic
    relaKonship
    between actors,
    context, theories,
    reflecKon and
    strategy
    An alternaKve to linear
    planning
    A sensemaking
    framework
    An approach to
    navigaKng the
    complexity of social
    change
    ArKculaKon of
    assumpKons
    AdapKve ToC
    CriKcal
    thinking
    Linking mulKple projects
    TesKng links in ToCs
    Turning ToC from an
    object to a pracKce
    

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20. Two types of Theory of Change
    • IntervenKonist - change within the system -
    bounded by the condiKons e.g. beneficiaries
    able to change
    • Embedded – bounded by analysis and
    plausibility – changing the system
    

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21. Project Superwoman - Interventionist
    Surviving Domestic Violence
    •  Goal – Long term employment at liveable wage for DV survivors.
    •  Partnership – social services, training centre, domesKc violence centre.
    •  Theory 1 - Job stability and beMer wages from training for skilled building
    jobs
    •  Theory 2 - Training will only lead to job stability if it helps with coping
    skills, child care and work place behaviours
    •  Outcomes – Coping skills and knowledge, marketable skills, internships.
    •  Pre-condiKons – counselling, pracKcal support, training classes, employer
    educaKon
    

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22. Embedded example - Improving community participation in local
    governance
    Theories of change
    1)  If we build citizen’s awareness and capacity, assist them
    to overcome fear, and if action is in the interest of their
    livelihoods, then they will act.
    2)  If there is increased pressure from citizens, then duty
    bearers (e.g. politicians) will be increasingly compelled
    to respond
    3)  If we increase capacity of local elected leaders then the
    %age of positive responses will increase
    22
    

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23. Implementation
    23
    Mixes ToC, adaptaKon and experimentaKon
    1. ElecHon promises tracking: Training of ‘trackers’ in 36 communiKes before the elecKons. They are
    recording progress against the leaders’ promises using cartoon noKce boards.
    2. Farmer animators: Training 200 farmers to understand principles of accountability, how to strategize
    to hold those in power to account, how to share their knowledge and facilitate their groups to take
    acKon.
    3. AcHve musicians: Training 42 musicians on principles of accountability to include in their music, which
    is widely listened to by communiKes.
    4. Student councils: SensiKzing students and teachers on issues of democracy to enable students to
    campaign for leadership and to hold elecKons; linking students with community ‘champions’ to help
    them raise issues with teachers and school management commiMees.
    5. Community radio: Using radio to enable pastoralists to share informaKon and debate. However, the
    government has not yet granted the radio licence.
    

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24. TIHR’s work - Process perspecKve
    • A world in the process of becoming
    • Becoming not desKny
    • Events not variance
    • ExplanaKon not predicKon
    • Organizing rather than organizaKons (sensemaking)
    • Embedded – part of the system
    

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25. Our Approach to ToC use in programmes
    Phenomena to be
    addressed
    Change sought
    System idenKficaKon and analysis
    Exploring how change works
    individually and collecKvely
    IdenKfy which parts of the
    system to address
    IdenKfying agency – who can do
    what?
    GeneraKng layered
    Theories of Change
    Theory of ImplementaKon /
    Logic Model
    Reflexive sensemaking and
    keeping track
    

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26. NegaKve experiences of
    school
    Disrupted family relaKonships
    Disrupted family
    relaKonships
    Gender
    Benefits trap
    Low employer
    awareness
    IsolaKon
    Access
    Offending
    Theory of Change
    and Programme
    The complex NEET system
    and Theory of Change
    Impact: Changing lives,
    removing barriers.
    26
    TOC Dealing with Complex
    System Emergent issues
    

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27. Examples from current work of using ToC
    for managing in complexity
    •  A financial services sector organizaKon providing advice, knowledge
    and capacity building for addressing UK populaKon wide aspects of
    personal money management such as debt, financial planning and
    savings;
    •  An NGO providing training and consultancy in the InternaKonal
    Development Sector;
    •  An NGO, working internaKonally, and in the UK, on developing and
    running programmes and partnerships aimed at conflict resoluKon
    and prevenKng the impact of radicalisaKon on young people
    

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28. What I think I’ve said
    •  ToC has grown to embrace programme management
    •  Seized on as a vehicle for aspiraKons to programme manage in a
    complexity sensiKve, adapKve, reflecKve and embedded way.
    •  The problems that programmes deal with are complex system emergent
    •  To work with them they have to be bounded, but how and why?
    •  Bounding complexity is a social construcKon driven by theory and
    knowledge
    •  The ToC shapes and is shaped by the emerging (becoming) programme
    THANK YOU!
    

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29. References
    Anderson, A., (2010), The Community Builder's Approach to Theory of Change, A PracKcal Guide to Theory Development,
    The Aspen InsKtute Roundtable of Community Change, New York. hMp://www.aspeninsKtute.org/publicaKons/community-
    builders-approach-theory-change-pracKcal-guide-theory-development
    Chen, H. (1990), Theory Driven EvaluaCon, Sage, California.
    Connell, J. P., & Kubisch, A. C. (1998). Applying a theory of change approach to the evaluaKon of comprehensive community
    iniKaKves: progress, prospects, and problems. New approaches to evaluaCng community iniCaCves, 2(15-44).
    Funnell, C., and Rogers, P., (2011), Purposeful Program Theory, EffecCve Use of Theories of Change and Logic Models, John
    Wiley, New Jersey, USA.
    Lively, P. (1997), “The BuMerfly and the Tin of Paint” in The Five Thousand and One Nights, Fjord Press, SeaMle.
    James, C., (2011), Theory of Change Review, A report commissioned by Comic Relief, Comic Relief, available from:
    hMp://mande.co.uk/2012/uncategorized/comic-relief-theory-of-change-review
    Nicholls, A. (2009), " 'We do good things, don't we?': 'Blended Value AccounKng' in social entrepreneurship", AccounCng,
    OrganizaCons and Society, Vol. 34, pp 755-769.
    Rogers, P. (2014) Theory of Change, UNICEF.
    Vogel, I., (2012), Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in internaConal development, UK Department for InternaKonal
    Development.
    Weiss, C., (1997), “Theory –Based EvaluaKon:, Past Present and Future”, New DirecCons for EvaluaCon, No. 76, pp.41-56.
    

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