Government contractor doesn’t pay employees Default epidemy in the federal government: 4 companies went bankrupt Construction company abandons 3 projects Observatory of Public Spending
Observatory of Public Spending data: - X: a total of 183 attributes, like: - # of employees - average salary of employees - # of auctions it participated - donated $ to politicians? - …
Observatory of Public Spending TNN: - PCA - selected 24 continuous variables based on covariance matrix - PCA reduced 24 variables to 9 components (~70% of variance; all components w/ eigenvalue > 1)
Observatory of Public Spending DNN: - 3 hidden layers - hundreds of neurons - can handle all 183 variables - can handle complex relationships between the variables
Observatory of Public Spending how can we evaluate performance? - accuracy (% of correct predictions overall) - recall (% of problems predicted to be problems) - precision (% of predicted problems that are problems)
Observatory of Public Spending how can we evaluate performance? - accuracy (% of correct predictions overall) - recall (% of problems predicted to be problems) - precision (% of predicted problems that are problems)
Observatory of Public Spending to do: - improve recall - 0.58 w/ TNN - 0.26 w/ DNN - change the law - must allow gov not to contract w/ high risk companies