A Computer Called "Watson"

Transcript

1. A Computer Called “Watson” James Thomas, IBM Emerging Tech COVER

   PHOTO Add cover photo Monday, 17 September 2012

2. GARY KASPAROV VERSUS “DEEP BLUE” MAY 1997 Monday, 17 September

   2012

3. BLUE GENE DECEMBER 1999 Monday, 17 September 2012

4. “Fast forward to 2004...” Monday, 17 September 2012

5. JEOPARDY QUIZ SHOW Monday, 17 September 2012

6. KEN JENNINGS CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS Monday, 17 September 2012

7. KEN JENNINGS CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS KEN’S PERFORMANCE Monday, 17 September

   2012

8. What if we build a computer to play Jeopardy? Monday,

   17 September 2012

9. What if we build a computer to play Jeopardy? It’s

   way too hard Monday, 17 September 2012

10. Jeopardy! Finite, mathematically defined search space Limited number of moves

    and states Symbols completed grounded in mathematical rules of the games Chess Enormous problem domain and search space Source material is inherently unstructured information Advanced natural language processing Monday, 17 September 2012

11. BASELINE PERFORMANCE INITIAL EXPERIMENT Monday, 17 September 2012

12. “Fast forward to 2007...” Monday, 17 September 2012

13. DR. DAVID FERRUCCI - “WATSON” TEAM DIRECTOR 2007 - 2011

    Monday, 17 September 2012

14. SIMULATING JEOPARDY! MATCHES Monday, 17 September 2012

15. BASELINE PERFORMANCE INITIAL EXPERIMENT Monday, 17 September 2012

16. WATSON WAS READY FEBRUARY 2011 Monday, 17 September 2012

17. Watson Jeopardy! Challenge February 14-16 2011. Ken Jennings Brad Rutter

    Monday, 17 September 2012

18. WATSON 1 - HUMANS 0 FEBRUARY 16, 2011 Monday, 17

    September 2012

19. “Its largest airport is named for a WWII hero; its

    second largest, for a WWII battle” Category: US Cities Monday, 17 September 2012

20. “Its largest airport is named for a WWII hero; its

    second largest, for a WWII battle” Category: US Cities Watson: Toronto Monday, 17 September 2012

21. How does it work? Monday, 17 September 2012

22. WATSON ARCHITECTURE - DEEPQA MASSIVELY PARALLEL PROBABILISTIC EVIDENCE-BASED ARCHITECTURE Monday,

    17 September 2012

23. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURE PHASES Question Analysis Primary Search Candidate Answer Generation

    Evidence Retrieval Evidence Scoring Merging and Ranking Monday, 17 September 2012

24. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: CAPITALS QUESTION: WHAT IS

    THE CAPITAL OF SAMOA? Monday, 17 September 2012

25. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: POETS & POETRY QUESTION:

    HE WAS A BANK CLERK IN THE YUKON BEFORE HE PUBLISHED “SONGS OF SOURDOUGH” IN 1907. Monday, 17 September 2012

26. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: POETS & POETRY QUESTION:

    HE WAS A BANK CLERK IN THE YUKON BEFORE HE PUBLISHED “SONGS OF SOURDOUGH” IN 1907. DISCOVER: FOCUS Monday, 17 September 2012

27. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: POETS & POETRY QUESTION:

    HE WAS A BANK CLERK IN THE YUKON BEFORE HE PUBLISHED “SONGS OF SOURDOUGH” IN 1907. DISCOVER: LEXICAL ANSWER TYPE Monday, 17 September 2012

28. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: POETS & POETRY QUESTION:

    HE WAS A BANK CLERK IN THE YUKON BEFORE HE PUBLISHED “SONGS OF SOURDOUGH” IN 1907. DISCOVER: RELATIONSHIPS Monday, 17 September 2012

29. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES QUESTION ANALYSIS CATEGORY: POETS & POETRY QUESTION:

    HE WAS A BANK CLERK IN THE YUKON BEFORE HE PUBLISHED “SONGS OF SOURDOUGH” IN 1907. DISCOVER: QUESTION CLASS Monday, 17 September 2012

30. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES HYPOTHESIS GENERATION Hypothesis generation consists of two

    phases... Monday, 17 September 2012

31. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES HYPOTHESIS GENERATION Primary Search Monday, 17 September

    2012

32. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES HYPOTHESIS GENERATION Data Sources - Unstructured Wikipedia

    IMDb Encyclopaedias Dictionaries Thesauri Literary Works Newswire Articles Monday, 17 September 2012

33. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES HYPOTHESIS GENERATION Data Sources - Structured DBpedia

    Wordnet YAGO Monday, 17 September 2012

34. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES HYPOTHESIS GENERATION Candidate Answer Generation Monday, 17

    September 2012

35. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES EVIDENCE RETRIEVAL Watson then searches for additional

    evidence... Monday, 17 September 2012

36. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES EVIDENCE SCORING Deep Scoring Monday, 17 September

    2012

37. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES EVIDENCE SCORING 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

    Temporal Geospatial LAT Popularity Deep Scoring Christopher Columbus Vasco De Gamma Monday, 17 September 2012

38. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES FINAL MERGING AND RANKING Answer Merging Monday,

    17 September 2012

39. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES FINAL MERGING AND RANKING Answer Merging Monday,

    17 September 2012

40. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES FINAL MERGING AND RANKING Answer Ranking ISAAC

    NEWTON [0.10, 0.45 ... 0.78, 0.12] ??? ANSWER SCORES RANK EDMOND HALLEY [0.31, 0.52 ... 0.08, 0.72] ??? WILHELM TEMPEL [0.21, 0.54 ... 0.18, 0.92] ??? PETER SELLERS [0.14, 0.04 ... 0.25, 0.41] ??? Monday, 17 September 2012

41. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES FINAL MERGING AND RANKING Monday, 17 September

    2012

42. DEEPQA ARCHITECTURAL PHASES FINAL MERGING AND RANKING Answer Ranking ISAAC

    NEWTON [0.10 ... 0.12] 3 ANSWER SCORES RANK EDMOND HALLEY [0.31 ... 0.72] 1 WILHELM TEMPEL [0.21 ... 0.92] 2 PETER SELLERS [0.14 ... 0.41] 4 0.14 CONFIDENCE 0.78 0.34 0.04 Monday, 17 September 2012

43. DEEPQA PERFORMANCE SCALING CHALLENGES Need to answer within a few

    seconds.... Monday, 17 September 2012

44. DEEPQA PERFORMANCE SCALING CHALLENGES Need to answer within a few

    seconds.... Early implementation took over two hours Monday, 17 September 2012

45. SCALING WATSON Monday, 17 September 2012

46. WATSON HARDWARE NINETY POWER 750 SERVERS 2880 POWER7 PROCESSOR CORES

    16 TERABYTES OF RAM Monday, 17 September 2012

47. WATSON 1 - HUMANS 0 FEBRUARY 16, 2011 Monday, 17

    September 2012

48. PUTTING WATSON TO WORK What’s next? Monday, 17 September 2012

49. PUTTING WATSON TO WORK HEALTHCARE Monday, 17 September 2012

50. QUESTIONS? Monday, 17 September 2012