Key Findings from the 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM)

Presentation by Prof. Christian Henning, Chief Scientist – AKADEMIYA2063

Transcript

1. Key Findings from the 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) Unlocking African Agriculture Trade: Regional Integration and Global Opportunities Prof. Dr. Dr. Christian Henning, Chief Scientist April 14, 2026 Akademiya2063 HQ Kigali, chenning@akademiya2063.org
2. The African Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025
3. The African Agriculture Trade Monitor The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM): • flagship publication by AKADEMIYA2063 and IFPRI • provides trends in African agrifood trade Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 1/14
4. Overview on AATM2025 General Topic : The implications of trade for food security in Africa • Chapter 1: Africa in Global Agricultural Trade and Food Security: Recent Trends • Chapter 2: Intra-African Agricultural Trade and Implications for Domestic Food Security • Chapter 3: The Rice Value Chain in Africa • Chapter 4: The Role of Fertilizer Trade in Enhancing Food Security in Africa • Chapter 5: Regionalism, “Continentalism,” and Multilateralism: Building or Stumbling Blocks for Africa? Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 2/14
5. Potential and Challenges of trade I. International division of labor - Mutual gain from trade - Winner and looser of trade II. Organization of trade matters - transaction costs - regional versus global trade regimes III. Spillover effects - technical knowledge spillovers - stabilization of local crisis / import of external crisis - trade dependence import of critical commodities and power abuse Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 3/14
6. Africa in Global Trade and Food Security Trends Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 4/14
7. Africa is lagging behind in Food Security Trends Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 5/14
8. Trade shares are compartively high and constant Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 6/14
9. High trade barriers impact negative on food security Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 7/14
10. Tariff and Non-tariff trade barriers are high in Africa Tariff and Non-tariff trade barriers are especially high for Intra-African and Agricultural trade! Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 8/14
11. Nevertheless Intra-African trade signifcantly increases Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 9/14
12. Trade policy is curcial to use full potential of Intra-African Trade for Food security • Kampala: CAADP Declaration explicitly commits to tripling Intra-African Trade - Commitment I: Target indicator for Intra-African Trade - Commitment VI: Governance of agri-food sector commitment to promote Intra-African Trade Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 10/14
13. Relative Impact of trade policy under the new Kampala CAADP-NASIP in Rwanda Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 11/14
14. Increase in real household incomes induced by higher commit- ment to Intra-African Trade Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 12/14
15. Good Governance of Intra-African Trade African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 13/14
16. Good governance of Global Trade • Food, Energy and Climate Clubs Akademiya2063 - Christian Henning 14/14