Fighting The Saboteur in Your Relationships: Dealing with Cognitive Biases

@arthurdoler Arthur Doler Resources: @arthurdoler Boring details about me are
at https://arthurdoler.com FIGHTING THE SABOTEUR IN YOUR RELATIONSHIPS Dealing with Cognitive Biases https://bit.ly/art-saboteur-relationships

@arthurdoler Why hello there.

@arthurdoler Let’s travel back to the halcyon days of 2008…

@arthurdoler I feel like my entire life is just asking
this every 30 minutes or so

@arthurdoler Oh no, not… the brain!

@arthurdoler Goffman, 1973

@arthurdoler Yeah, even those jerks matter.

@arthurdoler This is either wholesome or depressing, depending on who
you are

@arthurdoler Here comes trouble!!!

@arthurdoler The Walled Garden & the Dark Forest What’s a
cognitive bias? Debiasing techniques Specific biases and techniques to defuse them Let’s get to know the saboteur within

@arthurdoler #1 champion organ

@arthurdoler You Are Not So Smart podcast, Ep 184 @arthurdoler

@arthurdoler The topiary rabbit does not represent anything in particular
@arthurdoler

@arthurdoler THIS IS THE INTENTIONAL SELF The Blindspots Between Us,
Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler Not a nice place to visit even if
you could actually go there

@arthurdoler THIS IS THE AUTONOMOUS SELF The Blindspots Between Us,
Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler Binoculars only included with the “Deluxe” brain model

@arthurdoler “Thanks! Don’t mind if I do!”

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler Strangers to Ourselves, Timothy Wilson

@arthurdoler Pronin, 2009

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler This is just an example! Avocados are great!
Please don’t hurt me :c

@arthurdoler Thinking Fast & Slow, Kahneman

@arthurdoler Wilson & Bar-Anan, 2008

@arthurdoler The citations for this are vast

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler mmm... tacos.

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler ERROR: UNEXPECTED ELEPHANT IN PATH

@arthurdoler Why We Snap, Fields

@arthurdoler Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman

@arthurdoler He’s… not a good boy, but he tries hard.

@arthurdoler This slide inspired by real-life events (not mine, thankfully)

@arthurdoler Some pretty fancy footwork

@arthurdoler COGNITIVE BIASES ARE NOT: Logical Fallacies Cognitive Distortions Social
Biases The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky; Helmond et al, 2015

@arthurdoler Don’t get distracted by the cute dogs! YOU HAVE
COGNITIVE BIASES TOO!

@arthurdoler Swiftly followed by “Oh, me too? Okay, I’ll just
stop.”

@arthurdoler ALL OF US EXHIBIT EVERY COGNITIVE BIAS. These are
baked into the circuitry of your brain.

@arthurdoler And these are just the ones I’ve personally read

@arthurdoler A breezy 195 pages

@arthurdoler YOU CAN’T JUST THINK YOUR WAY OUT OF COGNITIVE
BIASES Lilienfeld, Ammirati, & Landfield, 2009

@arthurdoler Anybody lost lookin to get found / Know it
when they hear the champion sound

@arthurdoler •Identifying & making plans to address biases •Delaying our
decisions and reactions •Probabilistic thinking • Making predictions about the future • Considering alternative explanations • Reflecting on the future and repeating scenarios • Considering other people’s points of view • Getting an external perspective • Set a policy to guide your future self • Practicing Mindfulness meditation The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler IDENTIFYING BIASES AND MAKING PLANS TO ADDRESS THEM This
is basically Step 0 on the journey 📚

@arthurdoler TREETZ™ brand treats. For dogs who are idiots.

@arthurdoler Cheng & Wu, 2010

@arthurdoler DELAYING OUR DECISIONS AND REACTIONS The sound of a
million lifehackers crying out in physical pain ⌚

@arthurdoler You can’t make an electrochemical reaction happen faster by
thinking

@arthurdoler Graf et al, 2012

@arthurdoler PROBABILISTIC THINKING OH BOY, IT’S TIME FOR MATH! 🎲

@arthurdoler Clemen & Lichtendal, 2002

@arthurdoler “BASE RATES” When people talk about regression to the
mean, this is what they… mean

@arthurdoler Oh no.

@arthurdoler Time to find a box for my desk stuff
I guess

@arthurdoler This isn’t going to stop the emotion, but hopefully
it takes it down a notch 2 / 60 = 0.03% 0 / 60 = 0.00%

@arthurdoler MAKING PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Using your prognostication method
of choice 🔮

@arthurdoler Tetlock & Gardner, 2016

@arthurdoler Also keep track of your general success rate at
predictions in general

@arthurdoler CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS It’s like Marvel’s “What If?” but
way lower budget 💭

@arthurdoler Miller et al, 2013

@arthurdoler MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, IT’S NOT ABOUT YOU Everyone
is almost always wrapped up with themselves.

@arthurdoler You’ll get better at coming up with alternatives

@arthurdoler REFLECTING ON THE FUTURE AND REPEATING SCENARIOS Forward… into
the past! 🔁

@arthurdoler Kruger & Evans, 2004

@arthurdoler CONSIDERING OTHER PEOPLES’ PERSPECTIVE You can try wearing my
glasses but you’d just get a headache 👓

@arthurdoler Galinsky, 1999

@arthurdoler GETTING AN EXTERNAL PERSPECTIVE Use a human for this
– don’t bother using GPT-3 yet 👽

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler Rose, 2012

@arthurdoler @arthurdoler BEWARE OF THE FOG CRABS

@arthurdoler SET A POLICY TO GUIDE YOUR FUTURE SELF Narrow
the range of future possibilities 🎫

@arthurdoler Gawande, 2009

@arthurdoler They probably need dusted again

@arthurdoler PRACTICING MINDFULNESS MEDITATION This one weird trick that keeps
popping up in all my talks 🧘‍♀️

@arthurdoler Hafenback, Kinias, & Barsade, 2014

@arthurdoler A daily workout for your prefrontal cortex

@arthurdoler Tribalism Horns Effect Halo Effect Attribution Errors Fundamental Attr.
Error Group Attr. Error Ultimate Attr. Error Stuff That Sounds Like Dungeons & Dragons Illusory Superiority Illusion of Transparency Curse of Knowledge The Gap of Empathy Believe me when I say, this is the smallest fraction of the full list

@arthurdoler TRIBALISM Any applications to modern geopolitics are left as
an exercise for the reader

@arthurdoler “SOCIAL CATEGORIZATION AND INTERGROUP BEHAVIOUR” Tajfel et al, 1971

@arthurdoler Tajfel et al, 1971

@arthurdoler WE FORM INGROUPS AND OUTGROUPS Forsyth, 2010

@arthurdoler The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler HORNS EFFECT Nothing to do with brass instruments. Sorry
to disappoint.

@arthurdoler We’re extraordinarily good at this, it turns out

@arthurdoler Burton et al, 2015

@arthurdoler Let’s file down those horns

@arthurdoler ⌚DELAYING YOUR REACTIONS •Take a delay before you judge
new people •Remember we tend to undervalue: •Overweight people •Disabled people •People with foreign accents •Etc, etc, etc. The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🔮MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE •Write down the gut
feeling to check its accuracy •Will the new coworker actually be bad at coding? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler HALO EFFECT This one came first, then the Horns
Effect

@arthurdoler Coombs & Holladay, 2006

@arthurdoler That edge piece probably shouldn’t go there, for starters

@arthurdoler 🔁REFLECTING ON THE FUTURE AND REPEATING SCENARIOS •What would
you think of that person if they were a strange robot? •Have your opinions on people you like always been valid? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🎫SET A POLICY FOR YOUR FUTURE SELF •Before you
even start hiring, establish metrics you’ll use to judge people •Those can be qualitative or quantitative •Once you’ve assigned the numbers, adjust by about 30% if you liked them or were otherwise attracted to them The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler ATTRIBUTION ERRORS If I had to pick my favorite
cognitive biases, these are probably them

@arthurdoler FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR It’s fundamental because it’s an irrevocable
part of our psyche

@arthurdoler I have unfortunately been kind of a jerk in
the past

@arthurdoler Noodles is tired of your nonsense

@arthurdoler BUT PEOPLE ARE COMPLEX, AND WE CAN’T REALLY HOLD
THEM IN OUR HEADS I can’t decide if it would be better or worse if we could.

@arthurdoler Gawronski, 2004

@arthurdoler ♪ Can we solve it? / No, it’s hosed!

@arthurdoler ⌚DELAYING YOUR REACTIONS •Instead of immediately accepting Noodles’ answer,
force yourself to be curious. •Is this person [attribute], or is it due to their circumstances? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🔮MAKE A PREDICTION ABOUT FUTURE BEHAVIOR •Predict if they’ll
repeat that behavior •If they do, you can bump up the likelihood that that behavior’s a usual part of who they are The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler GROUP ATTRIBUTION ERROR This one flows back into the
section on tribalism

@arthurdoler TYPE 1 - ANY MEMBER OF A GROUP I
AM NOT PART OF IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT GROUP Corneille et al, 2001

@arthurdoler TYPE 2 – THE GROUP’S OVERALL ATTRIBUTES ARE REPRESENTATIVE
OF EVERY PERSON IN THAT GROUP Corneille et al, 2001

@arthurdoler THIS IS WHAT STEREOTYPING IS Again, it’s not malicious.
It’s an energy-saving shortcut

@arthurdoler My usual go-to solution of “fire” doesn’t work here

@arthurdoler 💭CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS •Individuals have circumstances. What are theirs?
•Maybe locking sales staff into commission- based payment structures isn’t a great idea? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 👽GET AN EXTERNAL PERSPECTIVE •Someone else – especially someone
with a different background – can help counter Noodles’ first responses. The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler ULTIMATE ATTRIBUTION ERROR Unfortunately, no relation to The Ultimate
Warrior

@arthurdoler Hewstone, 1990

@arthurdoler At the tone, please advance the slide reel.

@arthurdoler 👓CONSIDER OTHERS’ PERSPECTIVE •What does that person think? •Can
you be confident in your assumptions about their views? •How many things do you think your QA knows that you don’t? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🎲PROBABILISTIC THINKING •What have your experiences actually been in
the past? •Do you have actual data, or did you make assumptions to arrive at your conclusions? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler ILLUSORY SUPERIORITY Strap in, this one’s going to be
a little awkward

@arthurdoler UNIV. OF NEBRASKA FACULTY SURVEY, 1977 •68% rated themselves
in the top 25% •More than 90% rated themselves above average Cross, 1977

@arthurdoler Pulford & Pulford, 1996; Savani, 2014

@arthurdoler Peel all the stickers off and put them on
in the correct orientation

@arthurdoler 👓CONSIDER OTHERS’ PERSPECTIVE •That other person is the hero
in their own story, too. How can that be? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 💭CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS •What if you don’t know more
than your colleague? •What if Noodles’ thoughts about the correct design aren’t right? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler ILLUSION OF TRANSPARENCY I’ve been on both sides of
these interactions

@arthurdoler Psychic dog alert!!!

@arthurdoler “You’re not putting the accent on the right syllable
in ‘woof’.”

@arthurdoler Gilovich, Savitsky, & Medvec, 1998

@arthurdoler Van Boven, Gilovich, & Medvec, 2003

@arthurdoler I bet you’re as sick of this slide as
I am by now

@arthurdoler 💭CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS •What if you’ve failed to communicate?
•What if you’ve misread the other person? •What if they’ve misread you? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🎫SET A POLICY FOR YOUR FUTURE SELF •Take on
the responsibility to make sure that when you communicate, that the other people understand you thoroughly •And also that you truly get what they’re saying •Echoing is a great tactic for this The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler CURSE OF KNOWLEDGE You are doomed. DOOMED!

@arthurdoler Birch & Bloom, 2007

@arthurdoler I am told these are all hard things for
beginners in .Net

@arthurdoler Rude!

@arthurdoler Let’s solutioning!

@arthurdoler 👓CONSIDER OTHERS’ PERSPECTIVE •What do they already know? •What
is the smallest possible bit of knowledge they could know next? •How can you tie that to their existing knowledge? The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler THE EMPATHY GAP This is probably the most fascinating
of the ones we cover today

@arthurdoler Surely just one donut can’t hurt… can it???

@arthurdoler Gutsell & Inzlicht, 2012

@arthurdoler Loewenstein, 2005

@arthurdoler ♫ Whatever I touch / Turns to snow in
my clutch

@arthurdoler ♫ Whatever I touch / Starts to melt in
my clutch

@arthurdoler Loewenstein, 2000

@arthurdoler Last time we’ll see this, thankfully

@arthurdoler 👓CONSIDER OTHER PEOPLE’S POINTS OF VIEW •Try to envision
what you’d feel like with their background and situation. •What things do you think are important to them? •Do this with your past and future selves, too! The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🔮MAKE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE •Predict what they’ll care
about based on their past behavior •Anticipate their emotions when you’re in a cold state The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler 🎫SET A POLICY FOR YOUR FUTURE SELF •Set policies
when you’re in cold state •Absolute policies are easier to hold to than fuzzy ones – if you give an inch, your hot state will take a mile The Blindspots Between Us, Gleb Tsipursky

@arthurdoler Let’s avoid that whole conversation from the start of
the talk

@arthurdoler Big Think Energy

@arthurdoler “It is well said, then, that it is by
doing just acts that the just [person] is produced, and by doing temperate acts the temperate [person]; without doing these no one would have even a prospect of becoming good.” The Nicomachean Ethics, Aristotle

@arthurdoler Available from Gleb’s site: www.disasteravoidanceexperts.com!

@arthurdoler At least they’re not hitting you in the head
anymore

@arthurdoler Noodles is always ready for your next big heist

@arthurdoler TALLY-HOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

@arthurdoler Arthur Doler My website is probably still https://arthurdoler.com Resources:
THANKS FOR LISTENING! https://bit.ly/art-saboteur-relationships

Fighting The Saboteur in Your Relationships: Dealing with Cognitive Biases

Fighting The Saboteur in Your Relationships: Dealing with Cognitive Biases

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