The devops field guide to cognitive biases

As devops practitioners we focus on improving the culture of collaboration so that others play nicely with us & we play nicely with others - but what if the biggest thing holding us back from change is our own brains?

Cognitive biases can deeply affect our behaviours towards others by herding us towards mental shortcuts that are optimised for timeliness over accuracy, at the expense of rationalising irrational behaviour.

You are probably pushing these biases onto other people every day but don't even know it. Does that idea make you feel uncomfortable? You are probably experiencing the Semmelweis reflex kicking your confirmation bias right now.

Knowing is half the battle. This talk delves into some of the well-known and less well-known biases that may be affecting your ability to work with your peers, and your team's ability to work constructively with other teams.

Viewers of the talk will come away with an overview of biases they run into every day, how to hack their brains to use these biases to their advantage, and some tips on how to mitigate the effects of the limitations baked into their wetware.

We have met the enemy and he is us.

--

These are the resources used in the presentation:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/williamhook/4742869256
http://www.flickr.com/photos/10268891@N07/856565056
http://www.flickr.com/photos/brenderous/3671106784
http://www.flickr.com/photos/frostnova/2268471558
http://www.flickr.com/photos/buttim/1297081125
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dhdesign/1096464615
http://www.flickr.com/photos/princess_l_88/4948893120
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cphotos/4780625450
http://www.flickr.com/photos/amesis/3777130839
http://www.flickr.com/photos/artotemsco/5465529987
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fish2000/4648423198
http://www.comedycentral.com/press/images/colbertreport/stephencolbert2.jpg
http://althouse.blogspot.com.au/2006/05/who-is-clueless-enough-to-think.html
http://www.alternet.org/story/137918/why_do_conservatives_like_stephen_colbert
http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato/ohio-study-finds-conservatives-believe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/07/10/12/43/asiana-pilot-couldn-t-see-runway-before-crash
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/17940112/asiana-flight-crew-saw-trouble-at-500-feet-u-s-safety-board-says/
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/crash-pilots-wanted-to-abort-landing-as-boeing-777-approached-airport-too-low-investigators/story-e6frg6so-1226675762698
http://www.theguardian.com.au/story/1628513/inexperienced-pilots-may-be-cause-of-asiana-jet-crash/?cs=5
http://www.news.com.au/world-news/fears-pilots-manual-flying-skills-eroding-after-asiana-airlines-crash-in-san-francisco/story-fndir2ev-1226676769126
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publication_bias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias#Judicial_system
http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiogabe/5535916719
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sjliew/1311490235
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pcb85/4258475681
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jjackowski/3812946635
http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/rh/RH_Fluency_2008.pdf
http://www.wrayherbert.com/blog/memory-learning-and-the-fluency-heuristic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
http://www.amazon.com/You-Are-Not-So-Smart/dp/1592407366/
http://www.amazon.com/Sway-Irresistible-Pull-Irrational-Behavior/dp/0385530609/
http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/
http://www.amazon.com/The-Checklist-Manifesto-Things-Right/dp/0312430000/
http://www.amazon.com/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error/dp/0754648265/

Transcript

1. devops field guide
   to understanding
   cognitive biases
   (2nd edition)
   

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2. View Slide

3. Your current
   iPhone crashes
   

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4. Your current iPhone
   is slower
   

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5. Time to upgrade!
   

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6. Why?
   

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7. Apple has made my
   device slower!
   

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8. View Slide

9. Clustering illusion
   

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10. See patterns in
    randomness
    

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11. See correlations
    where there are none
    

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12. Your device has
    always been that slow
    

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13. Clustering illusion
    is a
    Cognitive Bias
    

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14. What is a
    cognitive bias?
    

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15. “Mental shortcut”
    

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16. View Slide

17. Timeliness
    Accuracy
    

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18. View Slide

19. Problem solving
    

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20. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    

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21. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    Correct result
    

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22. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    Correct result
    Rational choice
    

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23. View Slide

24. Problem solving
    

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25. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    

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26. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    Incorrect result
    

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27. Problem solving
    Heuristic
    Incorrect result
    Cognitive bias!
    

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28. Heuristic?
    

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29. Pattern matching
    

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30. What helped your
    ancestors survive!
    

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31. View Slide

32. March 27, 1977
    

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33. View Slide

34. Control tower
    

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35. Control tower
    ✈
    

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36. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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37. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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38. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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39. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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40. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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41. View Slide

42. View Slide

43. KLM:
    234 passengers
    16 crew
    

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44. Pan Am:
    326 passengers
    9 crew
    

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45. Frozen in place
    

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46. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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47. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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48. Control tower
    ✈
    ✈
    

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49. Normalcy bias
    

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50. Before a disaster:
    

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51. View Slide

52. •
    Underestimate:
    

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53. •
    Underestimate:
    •
    risk
    

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54. •
    Underestimate:
    •
    risk
    •
    effects
    

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55. •
    Underestimate:
    •
    risk
    •
    effects
    •
    preparation
    

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56. “Because something bad
    has never happened,
    it never will happen”
    

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57. During a disaster:
    

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58. View Slide

59. •
    Response:
    

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60. •
    Response:
    •
    slow reaction
    

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61. •
    Response:
    •
    slow reaction
    •
    seek validation
    

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62. •
    Response:
    •
    slow reaction
    •
    seek validation
    •
    optimistic interpretation
    

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63. Reaction steps
    

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64. View Slide

65. •
    Cognition
    

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66. •
    Cognition
    •
    Perception
    

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67. •
    Cognition
    •
    Perception
    •
    Comprehension
    

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68. •
    Cognition
    •
    Perception
    •
    Comprehension
    •
    Decision
    

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69. •
    Cognition
    •
    Perception
    •
    Comprehension
    •
    Decision
    •
    Implementation
    

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70. •
    Cognition
    •
    Perception
    •
    Comprehension
    •
    Decision
    •
    Implementation
    •
    Movement
    

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71. These are
    complex tasks
    

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72. You cannot skip
    these tasks
    

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73. You can practice to
    make them more
    automatic
    

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74. People who don't
    practice deliberate
    during the disaster
    

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75. View Slide

76. View Slide

77. •
    70% freeze
    

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78. •
    70% freeze
    •
    15% freak out
    

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79. •
    70% freeze
    •
    15% freak out
    •
    15% react to situation
    

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80. No practice == higher MTTR
    

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81. Counter this behaviour
    

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82. drill drill drill drill drill
    drill drill drill drill drill
    drill drill drill drill drill
    drill drill drill drill drill
    

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83. Normalcy bias has
    your head in the sand.
    Drill to react when
    disaster is at hand.
    

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84. View Slide

85. View Slide

86. View Slide

87. View Slide

88. View Slide

89. View Slide

90. View Slide

91. View Slide

92. see it go over here
    

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93. View Slide

94. View Slide

95. was actually here
    

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96. Confirmation bias
    

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97. Seek information that
    reinforces position
    

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98. Ignore alternative
    explanations
    

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99. Interpret ambiguous
    information in favour
    of existing positions!
    

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100. View Slide

101. View Slide

102. •
     Who is clueless enough to think Colbert is a conservative?
     •
     Why do conservatives like Stephen Colbert?
     •
     Ohio study finds conservatives believe Colbert dislikes liberalism
     

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103. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4
     

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104. Debugging code
     

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105. My code is perfect!
     

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106. I know the problem is
     in this other library
     

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107. I just can't
     find it!
     

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108. *30 minutes pass*
     

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109. The bug was in
     my code
     

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110. View Slide

111. Counter this behaviour
     

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112. Take opposing
     viewpoints
     

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113. Is your conclusion negative?
     It could be biased.
     

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114. Confirmation reinforces,
     You ignore other sources
     

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115. Provisioning automation
     @
     

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116. View Slide

117. 18 months
     

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118. View Slide

119. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
     

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120. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
     •
     R&D:
     •
     We'll automate that now!
     

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121. 2 weeks later
     

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122. View Slide

123. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by load balancer provs!
     

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124. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by load balancer provs!
     •
     R&D:
     •
     We'll automate that now!
     

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125. 1 week later
     

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126. View Slide

127. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
     

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128. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by VMware provs!
     •
     R&D:
     •
     We'll automate that now!
     

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129. 4 weeks later
     

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130. View Slide

131. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by EC2 provs!
     

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132. •
     Provisioning:
     •
     We're being hurt badly by EC2 provs!
     •
     R&D:
     •
     We'll automate that now!
     

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133. View Slide

134. 18 months
     

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135. View Slide

136. What is
     happening?
     

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137. Working on the thing
     closest to us that
     hurts us most.
     

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138. But it's not the biggest
     problem overall!
     

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139. Would you work
     like this?
     

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140. 18 months
     

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141. Outcome bias
     

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142. Hindsight bias
     

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143. "knew it all along"
     effect
     

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144. memory
     distortion
     distortion
     

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145. Judgement
     

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146. “You were capable
     of preventing
     a bad outcome”
     

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147. Failure!
     

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148. Talk about events
     in the context
     of the outcome
     Failure!
     

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149. Bad outcomes
     come from
     bad decisions
     

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150. View Slide

151. •
     MH17 tragedy reveals need for flight path overhaul
     •
     Flight MH17 took abandoned flight path
     •
     MH17 flightpath questioned as Malaysia mourns second airline tragedy
     •
     Flight MH17 ‘could have avoided Ukrainian airspace for $66 per passenger’
     •
     Why was MH17’s flight path over a conflict zone?
     

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152. •
     news.com.au
     •
     Sky News
     •
     ABC
     •
     Daily Mail
     •
     PBS
     

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153. Taints all
     interactions
     

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154. Hindsight bias
     is your culture killer
     

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155. View Slide

156. Monitoring
     thresholds
     

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157. Backend HTTP Port 81
     

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158. “I don’t want that thing
     that woke me last night
     to wake me again”
     

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159. “I’m going to make
     that problem go away”
     

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160. But...
     

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161. How often does
     that alert fire?
     

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162. What percentage
     of all alerts is that?
     

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163. Are there other alerts
     that are more frequent?
     

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164. What makes this
     alert the most
     important to fix?
     

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165. +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | 2013-07-01T00:00:00+09:30 - 2013-07-31T23:59:59+09:30 |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | Check | # of entities | Critical | Total |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | Memory Utilisation | 85 | 9h 44m 31s | 2mo 5d 8h 2m 5s |
     | Load | 44 | 22d 2h 38m 50s | 1mo 22d 15h 51m 42s |
     | ** DISK Utilisation (Win) | 41 | 5m 0s | 1mo 19d 16h 2m 7s |
     | ** Disk Utilisation (Unix) | 43 | 3h 34m 2s | 1mo 1d 18h 24m 28s |
     | PING | 35 | 1mo 16h 16m 43s | 1mo 16h 16m 43s |
     | HOST | 37 | 1mo 2h 25m 52s | 1mo 2h 25m 52s |
     | SSH | 14 | 26d 21h 8m 33s | 26d 21h 8m 33s |
     | Flapper | 1 | 15d 11h 42m 16s | 15d 11h 42m 16s |
     | CPU Load | 5 | 8d 12h 21m 31s | 8d 13h 36m 22s |
     | CPU Utilisation | 30 | 1h 35m 18s | 4d 3h 17m 37s |
     | ** check_tcp Port | 56 | 2d 19h 25m 47s | 2d 19h 25m 47s |
     | RDP | 6 | 6h 34m 39s | 6h 34m 39s |
     | Swap Utilisation | 18 | 5h 43m 44s | 5h 43m 44s |
     | Frontend HTTP Port 80 | 4 | 4h 22m 14s | 4h 22m 14s |
     | Backend HTTPS Port 444 | 4 | 4h 20m 19s | 4h 20m 19s |
     | Frontend HTTPS Port 443 | 4 | 4h 20m 9s | 4h 20m 9s |
     | Backend HTTP Port 81 | 4 | 4h 17m 41s | 4h 17m 41s |
     | Disk Utilisation | 2 | 1h 45m 0s | 3h 9m 0s |
     | ** HTTP Regex | 5 | 11m 53s | 11m 53s |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     

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166. +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | 2013-07-01T00:00:00+09:30 - 2013-07-31T23:59:59+09:30 |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | Check | # of entities | Critical | Total |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | Memory Utilisation | 85 | 9h 44m 31s | 2mo 5d 8h 2m 5s |
     | Load | 44 | 22d 2h 38m 50s | 1mo 22d 15h 51m 42s |
     | ** DISK Utilisation (Win) | 41 | 5m 0s | 1mo 19d 16h 2m 7s |
     | ** Disk Utilisation (Unix) | 43 | 3h 34m 2s | 1mo 1d 18h 24m 28s |
     | PING | 35 | 1mo 16h 16m 43s | 1mo 16h 16m 43s |
     | HOST | 37 | 1mo 2h 25m 52s | 1mo 2h 25m 52s |
     | SSH | 14 | 26d 21h 8m 33s | 26d 21h 8m 33s |
     | Flapper | 1 | 15d 11h 42m 16s | 15d 11h 42m 16s |
     | CPU Load | 5 | 8d 12h 21m 31s | 8d 13h 36m 22s |
     | CPU Utilisation | 30 | 1h 35m 18s | 4d 3h 17m 37s |
     | ** check_tcp Port | 56 | 2d 19h 25m 47s | 2d 19h 25m 47s |
     | RDP | 6 | 6h 34m 39s | 6h 34m 39s |
     | Swap Utilisation | 18 | 5h 43m 44s | 5h 43m 44s |
     | Frontend HTTP Port 80 | 4 | 4h 22m 14s | 4h 22m 14s |
     | Backend HTTPS Port 444 | 4 | 4h 20m 19s | 4h 20m 19s |
     | Frontend HTTPS Port 443 | 4 | 4h 20m 9s | 4h 20m 9s |
     | Backend HTTP Port 81 | 4 | 4h 17m 41s | 4h 17m 41s |
     | Disk Utilisation | 2 | 1h 45m 0s | 3h 9m 0s |
     | ** HTTP Regex | 5 | 11m 53s | 11m 53s |
     +----------------------------+---------------+-----------------+---------------------+
     | Backend HTTP Port 81 | 4 | 4h 17m 41s | 4h 17m 41s |
     

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167. Harness this behaviour
     

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168. Counterfactuals
     

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169. *we’re about to launch*
     “What do you think
     will break?”
     

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170. versus
     

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171. *imagine 5 minutes post-launch*
     “What just broke?”
     

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172. Counter this behaviour
     

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173. During
     

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174. View Slide

175. •
     1. collect data
     

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176. •
     1. collect data
     •
     2. analyse that data
     

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177. •
     1. collect data
     •
     2. analyse that data
     •
     3. make decisions based on that data
     

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178. •
     1. collect data
     •
     2. analyse that data
     •
     3. make decisions based on that data
     •
     4. act on data, not feelings
     

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179. •
     1. collect data
     •
     2. analyse that data
     •
     3. make decisions based on that data
     •
     4. act on data, and feelings
     

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180. After:
     

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181. Explain in terms of
     foresight
     

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182. Local rationality
     

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183. “People make what
     they think are best
     decisions based on the
     information at hand”
     

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184. View Slide

185. Hindsight affords us
     global rationality
     

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186. View Slide

187. Hindsight blinds,
     Foresight finds
     

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188. View Slide

189. Normalcy bias
     

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190. Confirmation bias
     

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191. Hindsight bias
     

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192. View Slide

193. How vulnerable to
     these biases are you?
     

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194. – you, right now
     “I’m aware of my biases.”
     

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195. – you, right now
     “These don’t affect me.”
     

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196. – you, right now
     “I am better than average.”
     

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197. Better-than-average effect
     &
     Illusory superiority
     

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198. Bias blind spot
     

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199. View Slide

200. •
     Positive attributes
     

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201. •
     Positive attributes
     •
     Above average
     

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202. View Slide

203. •
     Negative attributes
     

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204. •
     Negative attributes
     •
     Below average
     

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205. Why?
     

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206. Self-esteem
     

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207. Control
     

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208. View Slide

209. Normalcy bias has
     your head in the sand.
     Drill to react when
     disaster is at hand.
     

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210. Confirmation reinforces,
     You ignore other sources
     

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211. Hindsight blinds,
     Foresight finds
     

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212. Rhyme-as-reason
     effect
     

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213. Aesthetics
     affect truth
     

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214. View Slide

215. •
     Fluent, Fast, Smooth
     

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216. •
     Fluent, Fast, Smooth
     •
     Higher value
     

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217. This is a test
     

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218. View Slide

219. 1.
     Read the statement once
     

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220. 1.
     Read the statement once
     2.
     Count the letter F
     

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221. View Slide

222. FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT
     FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY
     OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF
     SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
     

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223. View Slide

224. How many
     did you see?
     

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225. How many
     did you see?
     The answer is 8
     

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226. Fluency heuristic
     

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227. FINAL FOLIOS SEEM TO RESULT
     FROM YEARS OF DUTIFUL STUDY
     OF TEXTS ALONG WITH YEARS OF
     SCIENTIFIC EXPERIENCE.
     

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228. Brain expects
     pattern to continue
     

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229. Brain skips
     other information
     

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230. Harness this behaviour
     

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231. Rhyme your mantras
     

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232. View Slide

233. Have you learnt
     anything?
     

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234. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
     

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235. How many passes?
     

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236. What did the
     gorilla do?
     

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237. Did you see the curtains
     change colour?
     

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238. Or one of the
     players leave?
     

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239. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY
     

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240. – Mark Twain
     “It ain’t what you don’t know
     that gets you into trouble.
     It’s what you know for sure
     that just ain’t so.”
     

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241. Culture is made
     from people.
     

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242. Everyone has biases.
     

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243. Understand how
     you think.
     

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244. Become more
     rational.
     

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245. Become less
     rationalising.
     

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246. Be aware of bias.
     

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247. Improve ourselves.
     

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248. Culture will flow.
     

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249. I’m Lindsay
     @auxesis
     

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250. Thank you!
     

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251. Thank you!
     Liked the talk? Let @auxesis know.
     

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252. View Slide

253. •
     Further reading
     •
     You Are Not So Smart – David McRaney
     •
     The field guide to understanding 

     human error – Sidney Dekker
     •
     Sway: The irresistible pull of irrational
     behavior – Ori Brafman
     •
     Thinking, Fast and Slow – Daniel Kahneman
     

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