Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

阪神タイガース、 失策王からの脱出 ~3年連続、絶対阻止~ / bpstudy-2019-winter

Mao Kurita
December 10, 2019

阪神タイガース、 失策王からの脱出 ~3年連続、絶対阻止~ / bpstudy-2019-winter

2019.12.10 Baseball Play Study 2019冬
にて発表したスライドです。

Mao Kurita

December 10, 2019
Tweet

More Decks by Mao Kurita

Other Decks in Technology

Transcript

  1. ࡕਆλΠΨʔεɺ
    ࣦࡦԦ͔Βͷ୤ग़
    ~3೥࿈ଓɺઈର્ࢭ~
    2019/12/10 bpstudy #148
    ͘Γ·͓ʢ@awa_kuri23ʣ

    View full-size slide

  2. ࣗݾ঺հ
    ͘Γ·͓ʢ@awa_kuri23ʣ
    • ਪ͠ٿஂɿࡕਆλΠΨʔε
    • ਪ͠બखɿ্ຊതل #00
    • ࠷ۙͷτϐοΫ
    • ϓϨϛΞ12ͰҿΈ͗͢·ͨ͠
    • ΦϑʹԿ͍͍͔ͯ͠Θ͔Γ·ͤΜʢ੾࣮ʣ
    • ޷͖ͳήοπʔɿ1-2-3
    • ਓੜͷ໨ඪɿࡕਆͷ೔ຊҰΛੜ͖͍ͯΔ͏ͪʹຯΘ͏

    View full-size slide

  3. ͬͦ͘͞ຊ୊

    View full-size slide

  4. ࡕਆλΠΨʔεͷ
    ࠓقࣦࡦ਺
    102

    View full-size slide

  5. 2019 νʔϜࣦࡦ਺
    νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ ॱҐ
    த೔ 45 5
    DeNA 65 2
    ڊਓ 72 1
    ޿ౡ 87 4
    ϠΫϧτ 97 6
    ࡕਆ 102 3
    ηɾϦʔά
    νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ ॱҐ
    ϩος 67 4
    ιϑτόϯΫ 68 2
    ָఱ 72 3
    ΦϦοΫε 81 6
    ೔ຊϋϜ 82 5
    ੢෢ 92 1
    ύɾϦʔά

    View full-size slide

  6. 2018 νʔϜࣦࡦ਺
    νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ ॱҐ
    த೔ 52 5
    ڊਓ 66 3
    DeNA 69 4
    ޿ౡ 83 1
    ϠΫϧτ 88 2
    ࡕਆ 89 6
    ηɾϦʔά
    νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ ॱҐ
    ιϑτόϯΫ 57 2
    ΦϦοΫε 63 4
    ָఱ 71 6
    ϩος 74 5
    ೔ຊϋϜ 77 3
    ੢෢ 87 1
    ύɾϦʔά

    View full-size slide

  7. 2018→2019Λൺֱ
    νʔϜ 2018 2019
    த೔ 52 45
    ڊਓ 66 72
    DeNA 69 65
    ޿ౡ 83 87
    ϠΫϧτ 88 97
    ࡕਆ 89 102
    ηɾϦʔά
    νʔϜ 2018 2019
    ιϑτόϯΫ 57 68
    ΦϦοΫε 63 81
    ָఱ 71 72
    ϩος 74 67
    ೔ຊϋϜ 77 82
    ੢෢ 87 92
    ύɾϦʔά

    View full-size slide

  8. աڈ10೥ͷ100ࣦࡦ௒͑
    ೥౓ νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ νʔϜॱҐ
    2019 ࡕਆ 102 3
    2016 ੢෢ 101 4
    2014 DeNA 116 5
    2013 ޿ౡ 106 3
    2012 ੢෢ 101 2
    2010 ڊਓ 100 3
    2009 ޿ౡ 100 5

    View full-size slide

  9. 100ࣦࡦ௒͑ͪΌ
    ༏উ͸ແཧʂ

    View full-size slide

  10. Τϥʔ͢Δͱউͯͳ͍ʁ
    ࡕਆͷΤϥʔ͕…
    • ͋ͬͨɹɿɹ74ࢼ߹
    • ͳ͔ͬͨɿɹ69ࢼ߹
    • 102ࢼ߹Τϥʔͨ͠Θ͚Ͱ͸ͳ͔ͬͨ

    View full-size slide

  11. Τϥʔ͢Δͱউͯͳ͍ʁ
    ࡕਆͷΤϥʔ͕…
    • ͋ͬͨɹɿɹ74ࢼ߹ɹ29উ42ഊ3෼ɹ39%
    • ͳ͔ͬͨɿɹ69ࢼ߹ɹ40উ26ഊ3෼ɹ57%
    ΤϥʔΛ͢Δ͜ͱͰ…উ཰18%μ΢ϯ

    View full-size slide

  12. Τϥʔ͢Δͱ
    উͯͳ͍

    View full-size slide

  13. Τϥʔ͕૬खΑΓଟ͍ͱউͯͳ͍ʁ
    ࢼ߹ͰͷࡕਆͷΤϥʔ਺͕…
    • ૬खΑΓগͳ͍ɹɿɹ40ࢼ߹
    • ૬खͱಉ਺ɹɹɹɿɹ65ࢼ߹ʢ྆܉ϊʔΤϥʔɿ42ࢼ߹ʣɹ
    • ૬खΑΓଟ͍ɹɹɿɹ38ࢼ߹ɹ

    View full-size slide

  14. Τϥʔ͕૬खΑΓଟ͍ͱউͯͳ͍ʁ
    ࢼ߹ͰͷࡕਆͷΤϥʔ਺͕…
    • ૬खΑΓগͳ͍ɹɿɹ40ࢼ߹ɹ26উ13ഊ1෼ɹ65%
    • ૬खͱಉ਺ɹɹɹɿɹ65ࢼ߹ɹ32উ30ഊ3෼ɹ49%
    • ૬खΑΓଟ͍ɹɹɿɹ38ࢼ߹ɹ13উ24ഊ2෼ɹ34%
    ૬खΑΓଟ͘Τϥʔ͢Δͱ
    ഊઓ֬཰্͕͕Δ

    View full-size slide

  15. ૬खΑΓͨ͘͞Μ
    Τϥʔ͢Δͱ
    উͯͳ͍

    View full-size slide

  16. ͪͳΈʹɿ
    ݱ໾બखͰҰ൪
    ௨ࢉࣦࡦ͕ଟ͍ͷ͸ʁ

    View full-size slide

  17. ࡔຊ༐ਓ͞Μ
    ௨ࢉ169ࣦࡦ
    ʢࠓ೥͸12ࣦࡦʣ

    View full-size slide

  18. ͦΕͰ͸
    ࡕਆͷࠓ೥ͷࣦࡦΛ
    Έ͍͖ͯ·͠ΐ͏

    View full-size slide

  19. બखผ
    બख ࣦࡦ਺ ग़৔਺ कඋҐஔ
    େࢁ 20 143 ࡾྥ
    ໦࿘ 15 113 ༡ܸ
    ๺ᑍ 12 82 ༡ܸ11 / ࡾྥ1
    ࢳݪ 7 143 ೋྥ4/༡ܸ2/ࡾྥ1
    Ϛϧς 7 105 Ұྥ
    ക໺ 5 129 ัख

    View full-size slide

  20. બखผ
    બख ࣦࡦ਺ ग़৔਺ कඋҐஔ
    େࢁ 20 143 ࡾྥ
    ໦࿘ 15 113 ༡ܸ
    ๺ᑍ 12 82 ༡ܸ11 / ࡾྥ1
    ࢳݪ 7 143 ೋྥ4/༡ܸ2/ࡾྥ1
    Ϛϧς 7 105 Ұྥ
    ക໺ 5 129 ัख
    େࢁɺࣦࡦԦ
    ※ύͷࣦࡦԦ͸֎࡚(15ࣦࡦ)
    ໦࿘&๺ᑍ͸
    ग़৔਺ʹରࣦ͠ࡦଟΊ
    एखγϣʔτͷ໋॓ʁ

    View full-size slide

  21. ࡔຊ༐ਓ͞Μ΋೥ؒ21Τϥʔͱ͔
    4೥࿈ଓࣦࡦԦ(2008~2011)ͱ͔͋ͬͨ

    View full-size slide

  22. कඋҐஔผ
    कඋҐஔ ࣦࡦ਺ ओͳ಺༁
    ༡ܸ 31 ໦࿘15 / ๺ᑍ11
    ࡾྥ 22 େࢁ20 / ๺ᑍ1 / ࢳݪ1
    ౤ख 15 υϦε4 / ੨༄3
    Ұྥख 10 Ϛϧς7 / த୩2 / ݪޱ1
    ೋྥख 7 ࢳݪ4 / ιϥʔς2 / ্ຊ1
    ัख 6 ക໺5 / ࡔຊ1
    தݎ 5 ۙຊ4 / த୩1
    ࠨཌྷ 4 ෱ཹ2 / ߴࢁ1 / ཅ઒1
    ӈཌྷ 2 ࢳҪ2

    View full-size slide

  23. कඋҐஔผ
    कඋҐஔ ࣦࡦ਺ ओͳ಺༁
    ༡ܸ 31 ໦࿘15 / ๺ᑍ11
    ࡾྥ 22 େࢁ20 / ๺ᑍ1 / ࢳݪ1
    ౤ख 15 υϦε4 / ੨༄3
    Ұྥख 10 Ϛϧς7 / த୩2 / ݪޱ1
    ೋྥख 7 ࢳݪ4 / ιϥʔς2 / ্ຊ1
    ัख 6 ക໺5 / ࡔຊ1
    தݎ 5 ۙຊ4 / த୩1
    ࠨཌྷ 4 ෱ཹ2 / ߴࢁ1 / ཅ઒1
    ӈཌྷ 2 ࢳҪ2
    ࢥͬͨҎ্ʹ
    ϐονϟʔ͕
    Τϥʔ͍ͯ͠Δ
    ΍͸Γ಺໺ͷ
    ࣦࡦ͕ଟΊ
    શମͷ7ׂ

    View full-size slide

  24. ΍Β͔͠ํผ
    ΍Β͔͠ํ ճ਺
    ѱૹٿ 45
    ϑΝϯϒϧ 26
    མٿ 8
    ޙҳ 7
    ૹٿϛε 5
    ัٿϛε 4
    τϯωϧ 3
    ͦͷଞ 4

    View full-size slide

  25. ΍Β͔͠ํผ
    ΍Β͔͠ํ ճ਺
    ѱૹٿ 45
    ϑΝϯϒϧ 26
    མٿ 8
    ޙҳ 7
    ૹٿϛε 5
    ัٿϛε 4
    τϯωϧ 3
    ͦͷଞ 4
    ͜Ε͸ҙ֎ͱগͳ͍
    ɹɹɹɹɹɹˣ
    த೔ͷશࣦࡦ਺ͱಉ͡

    View full-size slide

  26. ݟͨ͘ͳ͍
    ݴ༿͹͔ΓͳͷͰ
    ऴྃ

    View full-size slide

  27. ରઓ૬खผ ηϦʔάͷΈ
    νʔϜ ճ਺ ߕࢠԂ ૬खٿ৔
    ͦͷଞ
    (ژηϥetc)
    DeNA 20 9 11 0
    ޿ౡ 19 3 13 3
    ڊਓ 17 9 8 0
    ϠΫϧτ 15 7 7 1
    த೔ 12 8 4 0

    View full-size slide

  28. ରઓ૬खผ ηϦʔάͷΈ
    νʔϜ ճ਺ ߕࢠԂ ૬खٿ৔
    ͦͷଞ
    (ژηϥetc)
    DeNA 20 9 11 0
    ޿ౡ 19 3 13 3
    ڊਓ 17 9 8 0
    ϠΫϧτ 15 7 7 1
    த೔ 12 8 4 0
    DeNAઓ͕
    ࠷ଟͱ͍͏݁Ռʹ
    த೔ઓ͕
    ͔ͳΓগͳ͍ʂ

    View full-size slide

  29. ٿ৔ผ
    ٿ৔ ճ਺ ࢼ߹਺ 1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ
    Τϥʔ਺
    ߕࢠԂ 45 62 0.73
    ζϜελ 13 12 1.08
    ϋϚελ 11 12 0.92
    ژηϥ 9 12 0.75
    ౦ژυʔϜ 8 13 0.62
    ਆٶ 7 11 0.64
    φΰυ 4 13 0.31
    ϚϦϯ 2 3 0.67
    Ϡϑυ 2 3 0.67
    ૔ෑ 1 1 1.00
    দࢁ 0 1 0.00

    View full-size slide

  30. ٿ৔ผ
    ٿ৔ ճ਺ ࢼ߹਺ 1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ
    Τϥʔ਺
    ߕࢠԂ 45 62 0.73
    ζϜελ 13 12 1.08
    ϋϚελ 11 12 0.92
    ژηϥ 9 12 0.75
    ౦ژυʔϜ 8 13 0.62
    ਆٶ 7 11 0.64
    φΰυ 4 13 0.31
    ϚϦϯ 2 3 0.67
    Ϡϑυ 2 3 0.67
    ૔ෑ 1 1 1.00
    দࢁ 0 1 0.00
    ͦΒ(ߕࢠԂ͸)
    ͦ͏(ࢼ߹਺ଟ͍ͷͰ)
    Α(Τϥʔ΋ଟ͘ͳΔ)
    φΰυͷগͳ͞

    View full-size slide

  31. ରઓ૬खxٿ৔ผ ηϦʔάͷΈ
    νʔϜ ճ਺ ߕࢠԂ ૬खٿ৔
    ͦͷଞ
    (ژηϥ)
    DeNA 20 9 11 ͳ͠
    ޿ౡ 19 3 13 3
    ڊਓ 17 9 8 ͳ͠
    ϠΫϧτ 15 7 7 1
    த೔ 12 8 4 ͳ͠

    View full-size slide

  32. ରઓ૬खxٿ৔ผ ηϦʔάͷΈ
    νʔϜ ճ਺ ߕࢠԂ ૬खٿ৔
    ͦͷଞ
    (ژηϥ)
    DeNA 20 9 11 ͳ͠
    ޿ౡ 19 3 13 3
    ڊਓ 17 9 8 ͳ͠
    ϠΫϧτ 15 7 7 1
    த೔ 12 8 4 ͳ͠
    ޿ౡઓ@ߕࢠԂ͕
    ͔ͳΓগͳ͍
    (ର৅͸10ࢼ߹)
    த೔ઓ@φΰυ΋
    গͳ͕͞໨ཱͭ

    View full-size slide

  33. ରઓ૬खxٿ৔ผ ηϦʔάͷΈ
    νʔϜ ճ਺ ߕࢠԂ ૬खٿ৔
    ͦͷଞ
    (ژηϥ)
    DeNA 20 9 11 ͳ͠
    ޿ౡ 19 3 13 3
    ڊਓ 17 9 8 ͳ͠
    ϠΫϧτ 15 7 7 1
    த೔ 12 8 4 ͳ͠
    ϋϚελͱ
    ζϜελ͕
    ଟ͗͢

    View full-size slide

  34. ٿ৔ผ (1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ׵ࢉ)
    ٿ৔ ճ਺ ࢼ߹਺ 1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ
    Τϥʔ਺
    ζϜελ 13 12 1.08
    ૔ෑ 1 1 1.00
    ϋϚελ 11 12 0.92
    ژηϥ 9 12 0.75
    ߕࢠԂ 45 62 0.73
    ϚϦϯ 2 3 0.67
    Ϡϑυ 2 3 0.67
    ਆٶ 7 11 0.64
    ౦ژυʔϜ 8 13 0.62
    φΰυ 4 13 0.31
    দࢁ 0 1 0.00

    View full-size slide

  35. ٿ৔ผ (1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ׵ࢉ)
    ٿ৔ ճ਺ ࢼ߹਺ 1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ
    Τϥʔ਺
    ζϜελ 13 12 1.08
    ૔ෑ 1 1 1.00
    ϋϚελ 11 12 0.92
    ژηϥ 9 12 0.75
    ߕࢠԂ 45 62 0.73
    ϚϦϯ 2 3 0.67
    Ϡϑυ 2 3 0.67
    ਆٶ 7 11 0.64
    ౦ژυʔϜ 8 13 0.62
    φΰυ 4 13 0.31
    দࢁ 0 1 0.00
    ζϜελ͕ຊڌ஍།Ұͷ
    1.00Φʔόʔ
    φΰυ͍͢͝
    ߕࢠԂ͸·͋·͋
    ฏۉతͳҐஔʹͳΔ

    View full-size slide

  36. ࡕਆ͕ࣦࡦԦΛ
    ୤ग़͢ΔͨΊͷ
    2ͭͷఏҊ

    View full-size slide

  37. 1. ੢෢Λݟश͏

    View full-size slide

  38. 1. ੢෢Λݟश͏
    • ੢෢ͱࡕਆͷଧܸΛൺ΂Δ
    • ੢෢͸2೥࿈ଓϦʔάࣦࡦԦ͕ͩ༏উ͍ͯ͠Δ
    • 2019ଧܸ੒੷ɺશͯʹ͓͍ͯ੢෢͕ڧ͍
    • ຊྥଧ͸ഒۙ͘ҧ͏
    • ࡕਆʹେ๒͕͍ͳ͍ͷ͸ׂͱ՝୊Ͱ͸ͳ͍Ͱ͠ΐ͏͔

    View full-size slide

  39. 2019ຊྥଧ਺ൺֱ
    ࡕਆ ຊ਺
    େࢁ 14
    Ϛϧς 12
    ෱ཹ 10
    ۙຊ 9
    ക໺ 9
    ߹ܭ 94
    ੢෢ ຊ਺
    ࢁ઒ 43
    தଜ 30
    ֎࡚ 26
    ৿ 23
    ळࢁ 20
    ߹ܭ 174
    ʲٸืʳେ๒

    View full-size slide

  40. ৽֎ࠃਓϘʔΞ͸
    ظ଴ͯ͠΋ྑ͍ͷͰ͠ΐ͏͔

    View full-size slide

  41. ϦεΫ
    • CSͰഊୀ͢ΔՄೳੑ͕͋Γ·͢
    • ೔ຊγϦʔζʹग़ΒΕͳ͍͔΋

    View full-size slide

  42. 2. த೔Λݟश͏

    View full-size slide

  43. 2. த೔Λݟश͏
    • த೔Λݟश͍ͬͯ͘
    • ͦ΋ͦ΋த೔ͷબखͷकඋྗ͸ߴΊ
    • νʔϜࣦࡦԦ͸ژాͷ9ࣦࡦ
    • ηͰ།Ұ2ܻࣦࡦͨ͠બख͕͍ͳ͍
    • ࡕਆ΋த೔ઓͷࣦࡦ͕গͳ͍ʢ12ࣦࡦʣ
    • ΋͔ͯ͠͠ɿकඋ؀ڥʹ΋ཁҼ͕͋ΔͷͰ͸ʁ

    View full-size slide

  44. ٿ৔ผࣦࡦ(1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ׵ࢉ) ஍ํٿ৔আ͘
    • ζϜελͱߕࢠԂ͸
    ఱવࣳ
    • ఱવࣳ͸ΠϨΪϡϥʔ
    ൃੜ͠΍͍͢
    ٿ৔ ճ਺ ࢼ߹਺ 1ࢼ߹͋ͨΓ
    Τϥʔ਺
    ζϜελ 13 12 1.08
    ϋϚελ 11 12 0.92
    ژηϥ 9 12 0.75
    ߕࢠԂ 45 62 0.73
    ϚϦϯ 2 3 0.67
    Ϡϑυ 2 3 0.67
    ਆٶ 7 11 0.64
    ౦ژυʔϜ 8 13 0.62
    φΰυ 4 13 0.31

    View full-size slide

  45. ٿ৔ͷࣳΛ
    φΰυ࢓༷ʹ͢Ε͹
    ࣦࡦݮΔͷͰ͸ʂʂʂ

    View full-size slide

  46. ϦεΫ
    • େ໺༤େʹϊʔϊʔ͞ΕΔՄೳੑ͕͋Γ·͢
    • ͋ͷ೔Θͨ͠ݱ஍Ͱͨ͠
    • ਏ͍

    View full-size slide

  47. ·͋Ͳͬͪ΋
    ࣦࡦΛݮΒ͢ҙຯͰ͸
    ݱ࣮ຯ͕ͳ͍ͷͰ

    View full-size slide

  48. ࿅श͋ΔͷΈ

    View full-size slide

  49. ଧܸ΋ڧԽ͠·͠ΐ͏

    View full-size slide

  50. ͔͠͠ૣ͘΋ઌߦ͖͕৺഑Ͱ͢
    • ࡕਆळقΩϟϯϓதͷߚനઓ
    • 6Πχϯά੍ͳͷʹɺߚന͋ΘͤͯͳΜͱ5ࣦࡦ
    • ۽୩ɿѱૹٿ
    • ยࢁɿѱૹٿ
    • ౻୩ɿτϯωϧ
    • খ഼ɿޙҳ
    • େࢁɿѱૹٿ

    View full-size slide

  51. 6ΠχϯάͷߚനઓͰ
    5ࣦࡦͬͯ
    Ͳͳ͍ͳͬͱΜͶΜʂ

    View full-size slide

  52. ͪͳΈʹγʔζϯதͷࡕਆ͞Μ͸
    ྆܉͋Θͤͯ5ࣦࡦ͕࠷େͰͨ͠
    ೔෇ ૬ख ٿ৔
    ࡕਆ
    Τϥʔ
    ૬ख
    Τϥʔ
    4/6 ޿ౡ ζϜελ 2 3
    6/2 ޿ౡ ζϜελ 4 1
    6/7 ೔ຊϋϜ ߕࢠԂ 3 2

    View full-size slide

  53. • ࿅शͷ࢓ํΛม͑Δ͔͠ͳ͍
    • ัΓํม͑Δͱ͔
    • ܗࣜΛม͑Δͱ͔
    • ໊कͷίʔνݺͿͱ͔
    ࿅शͯ͠΋μϝͳΒ

    View full-size slide

  54. • ࿅शͷ࢓ํΛม͑Δ͔͠ͳ͍
    • ัΓํม͑Δͱ͔
    • ܗࣜΛม͑Δͱ͔
    • ໊कͷίʔνݺͿͱ͔
    • ণ͞ΜͷྗͰͳΜͱ͔…
    ɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹͳΓ·ͤΜ͔ʁ
    ɹɹɹɹɹɹɹ
    ࿅शͯ͠΋μϝͳΒ

    View full-size slide

  55. 2019 νʔϜࣦࡦ਺
    νʔϜ ࣦࡦ਺ ॱҐ
    த೔ 45 5
    DeNA 65 2
    ڊਓ 72 1
    ޿ౡ 87 4
    ϠΫϧτ 97 6
    ࡕਆ 102 3
    ηɾϦʔά
    དྷ೥͸͜͜ʹ
    ࡕਆͷ໊લ͕ͳ͍͜ͱΛ
    ੾ʹفΓ·͢

    View full-size slide

  56. Thank you for listening!

    View full-size slide