Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
Does rainfall affect food prices in Kenya?
Search
Geert Barentsen
July 28, 2013
Science
0
990
Does rainfall affect food prices in Kenya?
An exploratory data analysis,
carried out at @DataKindUK #DataDive,
28 July 2013,
London.
Geert Barentsen
July 28, 2013
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Geert Barentsen
See All by Geert Barentsen
A story about open science
barentsen
0
72
Kepler's Discoveries will Continue
barentsen
0
180
Kepler/K2 Status Update & New Software Tools
barentsen
0
250
Three reasons why Kepler's discoveries will continue for a decade
barentsen
2
210
The Kepler/K2 Supernova Cosmology Experiment
barentsen
1
96
How Sagan Fellows are shaping the success of NASA’s K2 Mission
barentsen
0
180
La misión Kepler de NASA
barentsen
0
74
How to find a planet?
barentsen
0
98
K2: Status and Future
barentsen
0
200
Other Decks in Science
See All in Science
マウス肝炎ウイルス感染の遺伝子発現へのテンソル分解の適用によるSARS-CoV-2感染関連重要ヒト遺伝子と有効な薬剤の同定
tagtag
0
120
機械学習 - 決定木からはじめる機械学習
trycycle
PRO
0
990
CV_3_Keypoints
hachama
0
190
04_石井クンツ昌子_お茶の水女子大学理事_副学長_D_I社会実現へ向けて.pdf
sip3ristex
0
500
統計的因果探索: 背景知識とデータにより因果仮説を探索する
sshimizu2006
4
920
データベース10: 拡張実体関連モデル
trycycle
PRO
0
710
眼科AIコンテスト2024_特別賞_6位Solution
pon0matsu
0
410
LayerXにおける業務の完全自動運転化に向けたAI技術活用事例 / layerx-ai-jsai2025
shimacos
2
1.2k
システム数理と応用分野の未来を切り拓くロードマップ・エンターテインメント(スポーツ)への応用 / Applied mathematics for sports entertainment
konakalab
1
340
地質研究者が苦労しながら運用する情報公開システムの実例
naito2000
0
210
データベース08: 実体関連モデルとは?
trycycle
PRO
0
700
06_浅井雄一郎_株式会社浅井農園代表取締役社長_紹介資料.pdf
sip3ristex
0
510
Featured
See All Featured
Chrome DevTools: State of the Union 2024 - Debugging React & Beyond
addyosmani
7
730
Building Applications with DynamoDB
mza
95
6.5k
A Tale of Four Properties
chriscoyier
160
23k
Templates, Plugins, & Blocks: Oh My! Creating the theme that thinks of everything
marktimemedia
31
2.4k
For a Future-Friendly Web
brad_frost
179
9.8k
Facilitating Awesome Meetings
lara
54
6.4k
Improving Core Web Vitals using Speculation Rules API
sergeychernyshev
18
960
jQuery: Nuts, Bolts and Bling
dougneiner
63
7.8k
Measuring & Analyzing Core Web Vitals
bluesmoon
7
500
What's in a price? How to price your products and services
michaelherold
246
12k
Site-Speed That Sticks
csswizardry
10
680
RailsConf & Balkan Ruby 2019: The Past, Present, and Future of Rails at GitHub
eileencodes
138
34k
Transcript
Does rainfall affect food prices in Kenya? an exploratory data
analysis carried out @DataKindUK 28 July 2013 London Geert Barentsen (@GeertMcTwit) Johan Kåhrström (@JohanKahrstrom) Simone Lombardini (@SimoneLomb) Eamon Bett (@eamon_bett)
Kenya is changing.
Rainfall has decreased by up to 50% since 1980
Sure, that’s global warming, right?
Actually, no.
Kenya does not follow the global pattern Rain
Probably due to deforestation.* 1978 2008 *Source: UNEP
So what about the food prices?
Price of Maize in Kenya has risen by up to
400% since 2000.
But there is no obvious relationship between rainfall and Kenyan
Maize prices.
Or is there?
The NOAA daily rainfall data has 7300 data points.
The data could be binned in factorial(7300) = 1025035 ways.
And binning is just one (stupid) transform.
Method: we used domain expertise to fit a model to
the moving average. Model fit Interesting model
None
Result: 1998, 2009 & 2010 are anomalous years Rain season
peak (That interesting parameter)
None
Anomalous weather
Anomalous weather
Anomalous weather
So did it affect food prices?
Possibly. Anomalous weather Bad-ass global crisis Kenyan Maize price
There’s plenty of caveats.
None
Key point We greatly improved the analysis by fitting a
model which captured the domain expertise from Eamon (Kenya) and Simone (Oxfam).
Encourage data scientists to meet domain experts.
DataKind does exactly that. Good job Kate!