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Measuring Hard-to-Measure Things (Inactives, Pricing, Collaboration)

Measuring Hard-to-Measure Things (Inactives, Pricing, Collaboration)

This talk covers some of the hard-to-measure things we're studying at GitHub. Stories include: cross-sectional survey project, pricing experiment with attitudinal data, and a Think Aloud with a research sneak attack.

Chrissie Brodigan

January 16, 2016
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  1. Measuring 

    Hard To Measure Things
    1
    Chrissie Brodigan

    January 21, 2016, @tenaciouscb
    GitHub

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  2. I’m Probably
    Nervous
    This is also a dream come true!
    2
    GitHub

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  3. Hi, It’s Nice To
    Meet You
    ✴ Live in Sausalito
    ✴ Trained as a historian
    ✴ Focus on gender & labor
    ✴ Competitive figure skater
    ✴ Synchronized swimming 

    (keep it weird mom)
    ✴ GitHub’s first UXR
    3
    GitHub

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  4. Technical background
    Writing
    Research Design Ethnography
    Writing
    GitHub

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  5. “Single, Unmarried”5
    GitHub
    ✴Age 21 – 27
    ✴Unmarried
    ✴Weight – not over 135 lbs
    ✴Registered nurse
    ✴No eyeglasses

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  6. Larry 6
    GitHub
    ✴You’ve written a clear, but
    incomplete story.
    ✴You need to go talk to these
    women.
    ✴You need to listen to their
    stories.

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  7. “I wa h, no r.”
    7
    GitHub

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  8. “ I ha ffice h y.”
    8
    GitHub

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  9. “ I tal o 17 core,
    mo w ne l o
    un.”
    9
    GitHub

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  10. Listening to people
    changed everything
    • Experienced both highly
    marginalizing & empowering 

    work conditions.
    • Skilled, professional, & organized
    workers in their own labor union.
    • Were part of a process that
    changed constitutional law.
    10
    GitHub

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  11. There’s nothing like connecting with people.
    Listening to stories can flip what you think you
    know, what the data says, on its head.
    GitHub

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  12. 12
    I believe that research studies
    begin with possibility &
    conclude with discovery.


    There’s a moment in every
    study where we get to learn
    something new about humans,
    something new about the
    world together.
    GitHub

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  13. 13
    I believe that research studies
    begin with possibility &
    conclude with discovery.


    There’s a moment in every
    study where we get to learn
    something new about humans,
    something new about the
    world together.
    GitHub

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  14. 14
    I believe that research studies
    begin with possibility &
    conclude with discovery.


    There’s a moment in every
    study where we get to learn
    something new about humans,
    something new about the
    world together.
    GitHub

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  15. In this talk,
    we’ll cover:
    ✴ GitHub product & background
    ✴ 3 research techniques & stories
    ✴ Q&A / Discussion
    15
    “Tools & Workflows survey –
    Cross-sectional study
    “The Golden Ticket” –
    Controlled pricing experiment
    “Collaboration” study –
    Exploratory “think aloud”
    GitHub
    Three Stories

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  16. GitHub

    ✴ Hosted git version control

    ✴ Business:
    - Free plans for open source
    - Paid private plans
    - On-premise Enterprise

    ✴ Powered-by Pull Requests

    (Code review workflows)
    16
    GitHub

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  17. Organize code
    in repositories
    17
    Photo Credit: Don DeBold, Flicker
    GitHub

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  18. 18
    Hosted mostly
    in the cloud
    GitHub

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  19. GitHub 4 years ago … 19
    @kneath persisted & hired me in 2013 

    Justin is a research superfan!
    GitHub

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  20. “Without research …
    ⚡ ⚡ ⚡
    GitHub
    … all you have is luck.”–@sboag

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  21. Let’s get into the research.
    GitHub

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  22. Hard to Measure
    ✴ Emotions
    ✴ Intentions
    ✴ Motivations + Goals
    ✴ Workflow workarounds
    ✴ Prior knowledge
    ✴ Perception
    22
    GitHub

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  23. Researchers are

    human instruments
    ✴ Researchers guide customers through
    interviews, encouraging them to share
    experiences that depict the why to the
    what of data.

    ✴ Qualitative insights often inform how
    we shape questions for our quantitative
    studies (surveys, large data set analysis).
    23
    GitHub

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  24. Story #1.
    Tools & Workflows Survey
    ✴ Cross-sectional study
    ✴ Run annually; repeatable
    ✴ Able to analyze by user attributes
    ✴ Informed by prior projects
    24
    GitHub
    Push the limits of what we
    knew with a census-like survey.

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  25. Upon sign-up we learned:
    Q. How familiar are
    you with Git for
    version control?
    76% of people
    arriving from the
    U.S. were 

    brand new to git.
    3-point scale.
    GitHub

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  26. We realized that we
    were asking about skills
    people didn’t have.
    "
    We shifted strategy to
    ask people about what
    they do know.
    GitHub

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  27. Tools & Workflows
    Instrument Design

    (35 questions)
    1. Tools in your developer toolkit
    2. Channels used for tool discovery
    3. Biggest personal challenge
    4. Ways to solve that challenge
    5. Demographics (human age, etc.)
    27
    GitHub

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  28. GitHub

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  29. Optional
    Demographics
    GitHub

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  30. Cross-sectional study
    View & interpret a single photo vs.
    time-series data, which looks at
    many moments to understand
    change over time.
    17 escalator accidents in 2014.
    30
    GitHub

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  31. Who?
    We always begin analysis
    by identifying the “Who.”
    And, we realized that we
    had a blind spot 

    –new users.

    31
    GitHub

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  32. Studying 

    new users
    #
    #
    #
    32
    1. The beginning (inception) – When newcomers sign
    up, poke around, & experiment. It’s harder to find them
    after they leave (rely upon email outreach).
    2. The messy-but-sticky middle – When newcomers
    are regularly active; in GitHub where the workflows &
    workarounds happen (they imprint onto & are imprinted
    by the product experience).
    3. The end – Where newcomers have abandoned the
    product; GitHub “inactives,” of which a large number are
    “omg duplicates!” & project-sensitive dormant accounts.
    GitHub

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  33. Evolve our approach to meet new
    users where they are vs. where we are.
    GitHub

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  34. We divided up the 35-question survey into several smaller
    surveys, which we rolled out in waves. We used the
    opportunity to design a 12-month longitudinal study.
    34
    GitHub

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  35. Longitudinal study 

    (our flashlight into the hows & whys)

    Observe a single cohort over time, gathering data
    about points of interest at repeated intervals. 

    We analyze the data with both prospective and
    retrospective studies.
    GitHub

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  36. Boyhood

    A film shot intermittently
    from 2002 - 2013
    36
    GitHub

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  37. The Harvard Grant Study

    Followed 268 men for 75 years as they
    both died & aged on into their 90s.
    37
    GitHub

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  38. New Account Creators Study
    Researchers and their methodology will 

    naturally age alongside their subjects.
    38
    GitHub

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  39. We took a cohort of 90,000 new
    accounts created in September 2015 &
    divided them into two groups.
    GitHub

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  40. New Account Creators Study (NAC)
    Explorers Creators
    GitHub

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  41. We’re 5 months into the NAC, so we’ll look at
    a cross-sectional view of the current data.
    Think: 17 escalator accidents last year
    GitHub

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  42. Are new users different because people change over time?
    (evolution)


    Or, is GitHub attracting a new type of user?

    (replacement)
    GitHub

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  43. 43
    1. First, when reading
    graphs identify the
    strongest pattern.

    2. Next, cover up what’s
    obvious & look for
    what’s interesting.
    Obvious vs. Interesting
    GitHub

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  44. Q. What’s in your toolkit?
    Obvious:
    Tenured accounts
    are more likely to
    use a text editor
    than an IDE.
    GitHub

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  45. Experience with tools
    Obvious
    Interesting!
    Newcomers are
    as likely to say
    they use neither
    an IDE or a Text
    Editor, as to say
    they use one.
    GitHub

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  46. Q. Primary text editor?
    New accounts
    are more likely
    to be using
    Notepad++.
    29% of the
    sample
    GitHub

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  47. Q. Primary text editor?
    Interesting!
    Atom’s use is
    much smaller
    among new
    users than we
    thought it
    would be.
    Obvious
    Obvious
    GitHub

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  48. 52.8K Following
    48
    GitHub

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  49. Q. Where do you go for advice?
    One area
    where both
    newcomers &
    tenured users
    act similarly
    – tool
    discovery.
    GitHub

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  50. When we put all 3 insights together &
    looked more closely at the world, 

    we noticed a big blind spot.
    GitHub

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  51. Google + % of people who don’t use a text editor =
    . . .audience opportunity
    GitHub

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  52. GitHub
    Atom doesn’t
    show up until
    the 4th page

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  53. We’ve been talking a engaged users, 

    let’s talk about inactive users.
    GitHub

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  54. How do you study inactive users?
    GitHub

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  55. Github “365” Survey 55
    GitHub
    Thesis: People are burning brightly somewhere, just not at GitHub.

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  56. Will you share why @name?
    Tips:
    ✴Include a question from the
    survey to set expectations
    and encourage click-through.
    ✴Keep the responsibility on the
    app’s failure to engage vs. the
    user for not engaging.
    ✴Be human.
    GitHub

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  57. Q. Which VCS are you using?
    Insight:
    Strong pattern in the yellows
    & greens, which represent
    “Nothing” and “SVN.”
    As programming experience
    increases people are much
    more likely to be using
    another VCS vs. GitHub.
    GitHub

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  58. Q. If we could have done one thing …
    Insight:


    Free private repos are
    NOT universally the
    most valuable GitHub
    good.


    Only among the 

    most experienced
    programmers are FPR
    a plurality of requests.
    GitHub

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  59. With an exit survey ask … 59
    1. What were you looking for …?
    2. Why did you stop using . . . . . ?
    3. What’s one thing we could have done better?
    GitHub

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  60. We’re talking about free private repositories,
    so let’s discuss how to measure something
    like pricing your product.
    GitHub

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  61. 61
    Q. How much would
    you pay for GitHub? $
    $
    $
    GitHub
    ?
    Photo credit: William Warby (Flickr)

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  62. 62
    Q. How much would
    you pay for GitHub? ?
    ?
    ?
    GitHub
    ?
    Photo credit: William Warby (Flickr)

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  63. Ask about value
    –GitHub goods
    ✴ Mug
    ✴ T-shirt
    ✴ Hoodie
    ✴ Feature(s)
    ✴ Experiences
    63
    GitHub

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  64. Story #2.
    The Golden Ticket
    ✴Classic controlled experiment,
    but with a nice twist.
    ✴39,800 eligible candidates
    between the treatment & control.
    ✴Coupons for free private
    repositories (FPR) to individuals
    with 1+ year of tenure.
    64
    GitHub

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  65. Experiment Design

    39,800 Humans
    65
    Treatment
    (19,949)
    3 arms of 6,600
    Exit Survey
    (2,039) 


    Shared
    Feedback
    Control: 19,851
    Screener

    (4,418)
    Redeemed their
    (FPR) coupon
    GitHub

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  66. Data & Measurement
    1. Coupon redemption
    2. Repository creation
    3. Perception of value
    GitHub

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  67. 67
    … from the exit survey tells
    us why people did or didn’t
    engage in one or both of the
    first two activities.
    … provides greater insight into
    what levers to pull with
    experiences to effect change in
    behaviors.
    Attitudinal Data
    GitHub

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  68. Golden Ticket Email
    ✴ Sent a total of 39,800 emails
    ✴ “Free private repositories for @name”
    ✴ “Free for life”
    ✴ Misunderstandings about the offer
    ✴ Good email deliverability, but . . .
    ✴ Overall low redemption rate
    GitHub

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  69. Golden Ticket Email
    ✴ Your original draw to GitHub
    ✴ Experience with other VCS
    ✴ If you used a competitor product
    ✴ Technical & social challenges
    GitHub

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  70. Roll your experiment out slowly. 

    Measure twice, cut once.
    GitHub

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  71. GitHub

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  72. Twitter

    Leaks
    72
    GitHub

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  73. Unfair 

    Treatment
    73
    GitHub

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  74. Too Good To Be True? 74
    GitHub

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  75. We were interested in what people valued most: 

    free private repositories or some other good?
    75
    GitHub

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  76. Q. Which would you value the most?
    GitHub

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  77. Placing a value on GitHub Goods 77
    Good # %
    Private repositories 663 36%
    GitHub T-shirt 324 17%
    Merged Pull Request 311 17%
    Git Training 265 14%
    GitHub Training 189 10%
    “Other” 103 6%
    64% indicated they
    would get more value out
    of something else.

    24% wanted practical
    training in Git or GitHub.

    34% reported that
    publicly consumable
    goods (e.g. t-shirt,
    merged PR) would be
    more valuable.
    GitHub

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  78. Open Text
    Responses
    78
    No amount of machine learning or text analysis 

    can surface the insights reading open text does.
    GitHub

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  79. “GitHub underpants”
    GitHub

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  80. Q. If we could grant you one wish to
    make GitHub even better, what would
    you wish for?
    Tip: “Wishes” help surface emerging trends
    GitHub

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  81. “Fre e f m te w
    unte re r”
    81
    GitHub

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  82. “at t fie re
    rite, or pit
    es a p fie pe”
    82
    GitHub

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  83. Unlimited Collaborators 83
    Private appears to
    be understood as
    private only to me
    vs. 

    working with other
    people privately.
    GitHub

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  84. Private for only you.
    GitHub

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  85. Invite your friends to your private code base.
    GitHub

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  86. Faster Horses
    Speaking of listening to
    customers and anyone
    who spends their time
    listening to customer
    requests ….
    GitHub

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  87. Story #3.
    The Collaboration Study
    ✴ Customers told us they needed a
    feature: branch permissions.
    ✴ More permissions = more complexity.
    ✴ Competitor products offered them.
    ✴ Pressure was on! We wanted to be
    thoughtful with how we solved the
    motivation & goals behind the request.
    GitHub

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  88. Fork v. Branch:
    Choosing a
    collaboration
    model
    GitHub

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  89. Feature Prioritization 89
    ✴ Branch Permissions
    ✴ Automatically syncing forks
    ✴ Sign-off
    ✴ Only merge with passing tests
    ✴ Undo button
    ✴ Disable force push
    ✴ Private forks
    ✴ Prevent merging from the command line
    GitHub

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  90. Feature Prioritization 90
    ✴ Branch Permissions
    ✴ Automatically syncing forks
    ✴ Sign-off
    ✴ Only merge with passing tests
    ✴Undo button
    ✴ Disable force push
    ✴ Private forks
    ✴ Prevent merging from the command line
    GitHub

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  91. “Wha?! The’s a 

    un to? Whe?”
    91
    GitHub

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  92. “Tel bo im n a 

    un to w ha le y.”
    92
    GitHub

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  93. 93
    Include items in your list that
    maybe don’t exist, but sound
    like they might.
    Listen to people define what
    they think the “feature” is. Ask
    how, where, when, & why they
    would use it.
    Think Aloud
    GitHub
    Sneak Attack

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  94. Wrapping Up
    1. What’s obvious vs. interesting in
    your data?

    2. How can you use attitudinal data
    to study perception of value?

    3. Where does a sneak attack make
    sense?
    GitHub

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  95. GitHub 

    Design & Research
    Teams are Growing!
    [email protected]
    GitHub

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  96. Medium (medium.com/@tenaciouscb)
    96
    ✴ Product Pricing, Attitudinal Data, & GitHub Underpants
    ✴ What’s Obvious vs. What’s Interesting
    ✴ GitHub Transformers: Tools & Workflows
    ✴ New Year, New User Journeys
    ✴ 365 Project: Listening to inactive users
    ✴ Measuring Hard-to-Measure Things
    GitHub

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  97. Speakerdeck (speakerdeck.com/chrissiebrodigan)
    97
    GitHub

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  98. Thank You 98
    @tenaciouscb | [email protected]

    GitHub

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