Workshop: How to Be Lucky (Tools for Design Leaders)

A workshop I hosted at the Leading Design Conference in London, 26 October 2016, hosted at the Barbican Centre. This was a 3 hour workshop reviewing design tools that aid design leaders in guiding teams through thought experiments & frameworks to cultivate better research & design.

Transcript

1. HOW TO BE LUCKY
   Leading Design Conference
   October 2016
   @farrahbostic
   

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2. WHAT IS LUCK?
   

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3. LUCK IS PROBABILITY
   TAKEN PERSONALLY.
   - Chip Denman
   

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4. “PROBABILITY IS A WAYPOINT
   BETWEEN IGNORANCE &
   KNOWLEDGE”
   - Nate Silver on Pierre-Simon LaPlace, 

   building on Thomas Bayes
   

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5. MATH!
   

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6. FORGET ABOUT THE EQUATION
   ➤ Here’s what you need:
   ➤ A hypothesis.
   ➤ An estimate of the probability your hypothesis was true before anything else
   happens.
   ➤ An estimate of the probability that your hypothesis is true if an event occurred.
   ➤ An estimate of the probability that your hypothesis is false if that event occurred.
   

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7. FOR EXAMPLE
   Silver, Nate (2012-09-27). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (p. 245). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
   
   

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8. BUT YOU DON’T 

   STOP THERE.
   You update your probability estimates continually as
   new evidence comes in.
   

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9. HOW TO BE “LUCKY” TIP #1:

   

   COLLECT EVIDENCE!
   MAKE CONNECTIONS!

   KEEP BETTING!
   

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10. WHY ARE SOME
    PEOPLE LUCKY?
    

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11. ASSESS YOUR 

    LUCK BASELINE
    

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12. “LUCK SURFACE AREA”
    L=D*T
    http://www.codusoperandi.com/posts/increasing-your-luck-surface-area
    

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13. “THE ART OF FINDING
    WHAT YOU’RE NOT
    SEEKING”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/opinion/how-to-cultivate-the-art-of-serendipity.html
    

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14. FOUR TYPES OF PEOPLE
    NON-
    ENCOUNTERERS
    OCCASIONAL
    ENCOUNTERERS
    SUPER 

    ENCOUNTERERS
    ENCOUNTERERS
    http://asis.org/Bulletin/Feb-99/erdelez.html
    

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15. HOW TO BE “LUCKY” TIP #2:

    

    COLLIDE WITH MORE 

    (AND MORE DIVERSE) 

    PEOPLE & EXPERIENCES
    

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16. LUCK-MAKING TOOLS
    

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17. PUT OBJECTIVES FIRST
    DISCOVERING
    EXPLORING
    UNDERSTANDING
    TESTING
    TRACKING
    How might we…?
    What is possible?
    Why?
    Will this work?
    How are we doing?
    QUALITATIVE
    QUANTITATIVE
    

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18. FORGET FOCUS GROUPS & INTERVIEWS
    

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19. OBSERVATIONAL
    RESEARCH
    SERVICE SAFARIS
    ANALOGOUS
    RESEARCH
    EXTREME USERS
    & EXPERTS
    

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20. ➤ What is the problem you’re trying to solve?
    ➤ What are the necessary attributes of that problem?
    ➤ What other areas share at least two of those attributes?
    ➤ How do products/services in those areas solve the problem?
    ➤ Can you see a meaningful connection between the approaches used in those areas and yours?
    ➤ How might you apply those approaches to your situation?
    ANALOGOUS
    RESEARCH
    

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21. EXERCISE 1:
    

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22. BREAK INTO TEAMS OF ABOUT 5 PEOPLE
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to identify a problem you’re struggling with right now.
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to identify the necessary attributes of that problem.
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to think of analogous areas that share 2 or more attributes.
    

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23. ➤ Who are experts on these attributes?
    ➤ Who are people who break the rules of these attributes? Of your problem?
    ➤ Who are people who can’t use your product/service today?
    ➤ Who are the ‘power users’?
    ➤ Who are the hackers?
    EXTREME USERS
    & EXPERTS
    

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24. EXERCISE 2:
    

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25. IN YOUR TEAMS
    ➤ You have 10 minutes to come up with:
    ➤ Experts
    ➤ Non-users (because they really can’t use it)
    ➤ Super users
    ➤ Hackers
    

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26. SYNTHESIS & ANALYSIS
    ARE WHERE MEANINGFUL
    CONNECTIONS ARE MADE
    

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27. ANALYSIS
    ESTABLISH 

    THE FACTS
    What do we know?
    What is in dispute?
    What is uncertain?
    

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28. ANALYSIS
    ESTABLISH 

    THE FACTS
    SPOT 

    THE ISSUE

    (OF FACT OR LAW)
    How might we settle 

    disputes of fact?
    How might new facts change
    the shape of the issue?
    How might we remedy the
    problem?
    

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29. ANALYSIS
    ESTABLISH 

    THE FACTS
    SPOT 

    THE ISSUE

    (OF FACT OR LAW)
    IDENTIFY 

    THE RULE

    (OR BREAK WITH IT)
    Is there a ‘first principle’ we
    can apply here?
    Can we find an analogous
    principle to apply?
    How might we construct a new
    principle that will apply to
    future, similar problems?
    

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30. ANALYSIS
    ESTABLISH 

    THE FACTS
    SPOT 

    THE ISSUE

    (OF FACT OR LAW)
    IDENTIFY 

    THE RULE

    (OR BREAK WITH IT)
    PREDICT 

    AN OUTCOME
    How might we solve this
    problem?
    How might we create more
    beneficial trade-offs?
    How might we create new
    value?
    

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31. EXERCISE 3:
    

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32. IN YOUR TEAMS
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to brainstorm rules that could apply to the problem.
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to sort these rules into two categories - those that can advance
    the solution, and those that hold you back.
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to write a new rule that might apply.
    

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33. EXPERIMENTS NEED
    PRIORITIZATION &
    REFLECTION
    

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34. Customer Segments (5 min)
    * Role-based
    * Buyers & Users
    Pick One Results of 1st Customer-
    Problem Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 2nd Customer-
    Problem Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 3rd Customer-
    Problem Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 4th Customer-
    Problem Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Customer Jobs (5 min)
    * Functional
    * Social
    * Emotional
    Rate
    Customer Problems (10 min)
    * Obstacles
    * Undesired outcomes
    * Risks
    Rate Decision
    * What aspects of our hypotheses still need to be tested?
    * How confident are we in this hypothesis?
    * What elements of the hypothesis need to adapt?
    Customer Outcomes (5 min)
    * Required, Desired
    * Expected, Unexpected
    Rate
    Experiment 1: Customer-Problem Hypothesis (10 min) Testing Plan
    * Method
    * Questions
    * Stimulus
    Metrics
    * Indicators of Failure
    * Indicators of Success
    What will be our next
    experiment?
    What will be our next
    experiment?
    What will be our next
    experiment?
    What will be our next
    experiment?
    Experiment 2: Problem-Solution Hypothesis (10 min) Testing Plan
    * Method
    * Questions
    * Stimulus
    Metrics
    * Indicators of Failure
    * Indicators of Success
    Decision
    * What aspects of our
    hypotheses still need to be
    tested?
    * How confident are we in
    this hypothesis?
    * What elements of the
    hypothesis need to adapt?
    Outcome Optimizers (5 min)
    * How the product will ensure customer outcomes
    Problem-Solvers (5 min)
    * How the product will solve the customer’s problems
    Results of 1st Problem-
    Solution Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 2nd Problem-
    Solution Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 3rd Problem-
    Solution Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Results of 4th Problem-
    Solution Experiment & What
    We Learned
    Product/Service Features (10 min)
    * Tangible
    * Intangible
    Important
    Extreme
    Essential
    Insignificant
    Moderate
    Nice
    Essential
    Nice
    Essential
    Nice
    Essential
    Nice
    Start
    Test
    Test
    Start
    

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35. EXERCISE 4:
    

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36. IN YOUR TEAMS
    ➤ You have 5 minutes to come up with “how might we” questions that build on your
    analogies
    ➤ e.g., “How might we apply the rules of x to our situation?”
    ➤ You have xx minutes (in 5 minute increments):
    ➤ Rotate! Look at the problem, attributes, people & how might we questions.
    ➤ Add or group ideas.
    ➤ Prioritize! What is important, extreme, essential, or urgent? 

    What will create the highest probability of serendipity?
    

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37. ONE MORE THING
    

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38. WHAT MATTERS TO
    YOU?
    

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39. WHAT IS YOUR UNFAIR
    ADVANTAGE?
    “If you’re born with a long neck,
    eat the high fucking fruit.” 

    — Stuart Eccles, Made by Many
    

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40. VOTE WITH YOUR VALUES
    ➤ Use your beliefs in what
    matters to you, your
    business and your
    customer as the filter for
    decisions.
    ➤ If it doesn’t embody these
    values - and those values
    can include profit and
    efficiency - don’t do it.
    

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41. EXERCISE 4:
    

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42. IN YOUR TEAMS
    ➤ 5 minutes: Revisit your problem, its attributes, the “how might we” questions…
    ➤ 10 minutes: Place your bets - Which of these questions represent an opportunity to
    leverage an unfair advantage? Which align with your values?
    

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43. REFLECTION…
    

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44. DOES THIS CHANGE ANYTHING?
    ➤ How will you increase your luck surface area?
    ➤ How could some of these tools change how you frame problems?
    ➤ How could they change how you train your teams?
    ➤ How could they change your deliverables?
    ➤ How could they change your experiments?
    ➤ How could they change the way you measure outcomes?
    

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45. 
    

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