The Difference Engine
October 26, 2016
290

Workshop: How to Be Lucky (Tools for Design Leaders)

A workshop I hosted at the Leading Design Conference in London, 26 October 2016, hosted at the Barbican Centre. This was a 3 hour workshop reviewing design tools that aid design leaders in guiding teams through thought experiments & frameworks to cultivate better research & design.

October 26, 2016

Transcript

4. “PROBABILITY IS A WAYPOINT BETWEEN IGNORANCE & KNOWLEDGE” - Nate

Silver on Pierre-Simon LaPlace,   building on Thomas Bayes

6. FORGET ABOUT THE EQUATION ➤ Here’s what you need: ➤

A hypothesis. ➤ An estimate of the probability your hypothesis was true before anything else happens. ➤ An estimate of the probability that your hypothesis is true if an event occurred. ➤ An estimate of the probability that your hypothesis is false if that event occurred.
7. FOR EXAMPLE Silver, Nate (2012-09-27). The Signal and the Noise:

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't (p. 245). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
8. BUT YOU DON’T   STOP THERE. You update your probability

estimates continually as new evidence comes in.
9. HOW TO BE “LUCKY” TIP #1:    COLLECT EVIDENCE! MAKE

CONNECTIONS!  KEEP BETTING!

14. FOUR TYPES OF PEOPLE NON- ENCOUNTERERS OCCASIONAL ENCOUNTERERS SUPER

ENCOUNTERERS ENCOUNTERERS http://asis.org/Bulletin/Feb-99/erdelez.html
15. HOW TO BE “LUCKY” TIP #2:    COLLIDE WITH MORE

(AND MORE DIVERSE)   PEOPLE & EXPERIENCES

17. PUT OBJECTIVES FIRST DISCOVERING EXPLORING UNDERSTANDING TESTING TRACKING How might

we…? What is possible? Why? Will this work? How are we doing? QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE

20. ➤ What is the problem you’re trying to solve? ➤

What are the necessary attributes of that problem? ➤ What other areas share at least two of those attributes? ➤ How do products/services in those areas solve the problem? ➤ Can you see a meaningful connection between the approaches used in those areas and yours? ➤ How might you apply those approaches to your situation? ANALOGOUS RESEARCH

22. BREAK INTO TEAMS OF ABOUT 5 PEOPLE ➤ You have

5 minutes to identify a problem you’re struggling with right now. ➤ You have 5 minutes to identify the necessary attributes of that problem. ➤ You have 5 minutes to think of analogous areas that share 2 or more attributes.
23. ➤ Who are experts on these attributes? ➤ Who are

people who break the rules of these attributes? Of your problem? ➤ Who are people who can’t use your product/service today? ➤ Who are the ‘power users’? ➤ Who are the hackers? EXTREME USERS & EXPERTS

25. IN YOUR TEAMS ➤ You have 10 minutes to come

up with: ➤ Experts ➤ Non-users (because they really can’t use it) ➤ Super users ➤ Hackers

27. ANALYSIS ESTABLISH   THE FACTS What do we know? What

is in dispute? What is uncertain?
28. ANALYSIS ESTABLISH   THE FACTS SPOT   THE ISSUE  (OF

FACT OR LAW) How might we settle   disputes of fact? How might new facts change the shape of the issue? How might we remedy the problem?
29. ANALYSIS ESTABLISH   THE FACTS SPOT   THE ISSUE  (OF

FACT OR LAW) IDENTIFY   THE RULE  (OR BREAK WITH IT) Is there a ‘first principle’ we can apply here? Can we find an analogous principle to apply? How might we construct a new principle that will apply to future, similar problems?
30. ANALYSIS ESTABLISH   THE FACTS SPOT   THE ISSUE  (OF

FACT OR LAW) IDENTIFY   THE RULE  (OR BREAK WITH IT) PREDICT   AN OUTCOME How might we solve this problem? How might we create more beneficial trade-offs? How might we create new value?

32. IN YOUR TEAMS ➤ You have 5 minutes to brainstorm

rules that could apply to the problem. ➤ You have 5 minutes to sort these rules into two categories - those that can advance the solution, and those that hold you back. ➤ You have 5 minutes to write a new rule that might apply.

34. Customer Segments (5 min) * Role-based * Buyers & Users

Pick One Results of 1st Customer- Problem Experiment & What We Learned Results of 2nd Customer- Problem Experiment & What We Learned Results of 3rd Customer- Problem Experiment & What We Learned Results of 4th Customer- Problem Experiment & What We Learned Customer Jobs (5 min) * Functional * Social * Emotional Rate Customer Problems (10 min) * Obstacles * Undesired outcomes * Risks Rate Decision * What aspects of our hypotheses still need to be tested? * How confident are we in this hypothesis? * What elements of the hypothesis need to adapt? Customer Outcomes (5 min) * Required, Desired * Expected, Unexpected Rate Experiment 1: Customer-Problem Hypothesis (10 min) Testing Plan * Method * Questions * Stimulus Metrics * Indicators of Failure * Indicators of Success What will be our next experiment? What will be our next experiment? What will be our next experiment? What will be our next experiment? Experiment 2: Problem-Solution Hypothesis (10 min) Testing Plan * Method * Questions * Stimulus Metrics * Indicators of Failure * Indicators of Success Decision * What aspects of our hypotheses still need to be tested? * How confident are we in this hypothesis? * What elements of the hypothesis need to adapt? Outcome Optimizers (5 min) * How the product will ensure customer outcomes Problem-Solvers (5 min) * How the product will solve the customer’s problems Results of 1st Problem- Solution Experiment & What We Learned Results of 2nd Problem- Solution Experiment & What We Learned Results of 3rd Problem- Solution Experiment & What We Learned Results of 4th Problem- Solution Experiment & What We Learned Product/Service Features (10 min) * Tangible * Intangible Important Extreme Essential Insignificant Moderate Nice Essential Nice Essential Nice Essential Nice Start Test Test Start

36. IN YOUR TEAMS ➤ You have 5 minutes to come

up with “how might we” questions that build on your analogies ➤ e.g., “How might we apply the rules of x to our situation?” ➤ You have xx minutes (in 5 minute increments): ➤ Rotate! Look at the problem, attributes, people & how might we questions. ➤ Add or group ideas. ➤ Prioritize! What is important, extreme, essential, or urgent?   What will create the highest probability of serendipity?

39. WHAT IS YOUR UNFAIR ADVANTAGE? “If you’re born with a

long neck, eat the high fucking fruit.”   — Stuart Eccles, Made by Many
40. VOTE WITH YOUR VALUES ➤ Use your beliefs in what

matters to you, your business and your customer as the filter for decisions. ➤ If it doesn’t embody these values - and those values can include profit and efficiency - don’t do it.

42. IN YOUR TEAMS ➤ 5 minutes: Revisit your problem, its

attributes, the “how might we” questions… ➤ 10 minutes: Place your bets - Which of these questions represent an opportunity to leverage an unfair advantage? Which align with your values?

44. DOES THIS CHANGE ANYTHING? ➤ How will you increase your

luck surface area? ➤ How could some of these tools change how you frame problems? ➤ How could they change how you train your teams? ➤ How could they change your deliverables? ➤ How could they change your experiments? ➤ How could they change the way you measure outcomes?