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Publicité et éco responsabilité

Publicité et éco responsabilité

Cours à destination des élèves IHECS PUB MA1

Futur Immédiat

January 21, 2024
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  1. Hubert Reeves Actuellement, l'homme mène une guerre contre la nature,

    s'il gagne il est perdu. Futur Immédiat © 2024
  2. It is difficult to get a man to understand something,

    when his salary depends on his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair Futur Immédiat © 2024
  3. Il n’y a pas de vent favorable pour celui qui

    ne sait pas où il va. Senèque Futur Immédiat © 2024
  4. Il est plus facile d’imaginer la fin du monde que

    la fin du capitalisme Jean Ziegler Futur Immédiat © 2024
  5. 01 02 03 04 05 06 Source : Abundance 360

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Exponentially Take 30 linear paces… 30 meters Futur Immédiat © 2024
  6. Source : Abundance 360 Exponentially Take 30 exponential paces… 01

    02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256 … 1 073 741 824 meters 26x around the earth Futur Immédiat © 2024
  7. Source: Ray Kurzweil, “The singularity is near: when humans transcend

    biology”, p.67, The Viking Press, 2006. Datapoints between 2000 and 2012 represent BCA estimates ELECTROMECHANICAL SOLID STATE RELAY TRANSISTOR INTEGRATED CIRCUIT VACUUM TUBE 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 OPTICAL, QUANTUM, DNA COMPUTING HUMAN 
 BRAIN MOUSE
 BRAIN 0 104 108 1012 1016 10-4 CORE I7 QUAD PENTIUM APPLE II ALTAIR 8800 UNVAC I COLOSSUS IBM TABULATOR ANALYTICAL ENGINE CALCULATIONS PER SECOND PER $1000 Exponential Moore’s Law
  8. Exponential Moore’s Laws Storage capacity doubles every 18 months Time

    Storage Kryder’s Law (Storage) Bandwidth grows at least three times faster than computer power Time Bandwidth Gilder’s Law (Bandwith)
  9. IBM AN/FSQ-7 – 1958 Whirlwind I – 1951 UNIVAC 1101

    - 1950 Exponential 50’s : Building Size Computers Futur Immédiat © 2024
  10. CDC6600 - 1964 HP 2116A - 1966 DDP-116 i -

    1965 Exponential 60’s : Room Size Computers Futur Immédiat © 2024
  11. XEROX Parc - 1974 Apple I - 1976 Apple II

    - 1977 Exponential 70’s : Desk Size Computers (Pioneers) Futur Immédiat © 2024
  12. Commodore VIC-20 - 1980 IBM pc - 1982 Apple Mac

    - 1984 Exponential 80’s : Desk Size Computers (Maturity) Futur Immédiat © 2024
  13. Apple Mac portable - 1989 Apple PowerBook - 1991 IBM

    Thinkpad - 1995 Exponential 90’s : Lap Size Computers Futur Immédiat © 2024
  14. Apple iPhone - 2007 Amazon Kindle - 2007 Apple iPad

    - 2009 Exponential 00’s : Hand Size Computers Futur Immédiat © 2024
  15. Nest thermostat - 2011 Raspberry pie (25$) - 2012 Apple

    Watch - 2015 Exponential 10’s : Wrist Size Computers Futur Immédiat © 2024
  16. 36 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB

    24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 1956 2020 2020 : 1024GB 0,2 $/GB Exponential Krider’s law Source : futurimmediat.net
  17. 37 1956 : 5MB 2005 : 128MB 2014 : 128GB

    24 000 000 $/GB 772 $/GB 1,2 $/GB 1956 2020 2020 : 1024GB 0,2 $/GB Exponential Krider’s law Source : futurimmediat.net 10 Trillion Fold Improvements
  18. Global digital information created and shared each year - zettabytes

    2 4 6 8 0 2005 2010 2015 Zettabytes 1 Zettabyte 1 000 Exabytes 1 000 000 Petabytes 1 000 000 000 Terabytes 1 000 000 000 000 Gigabytes 1/1 000 Yottabyte 1/1 000 000 Brontobyte 1 000 000 000 000 000 Megabytes Exponential Storage and data usage
  19. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2002 2004 1992

    1999 Cell Cost $/Watt Cumulative Installations, MWp 100 1 K 10 K 100 K 1 M 1 B $ 0.10 $ 10 $ 1 Exponential Swanson’s law (solar energy cost decrease on exponential rate Futur Immédiat © 2024
  20. $10K $100K $1M $10M $100M $1K 2001 2005 2010 2015

    Moore’s Law Exponential Cost per genome Futur Immédiat © 2024
  21. Q1:97 Q1:01 Q1:05 Q1:09 Q1:13 25 50 0 Global PC

    (Desktop/Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95– Q1:13 Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets Exponential Futur Immédiat © 2024
  22. WORLD GDP OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA Total output of

    the world economy; adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2011 international dollars. $20 trillion $40 trillion $60 trillion $80 trillion $100 trillion $0 1 2015 1500 1000 500 Source: World GDP – Our World In Data based on World Bank & Maddison (2017) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Exponential
  23. Millennia Centuries Decades FIRST
 WAVE SECOND
 WAVE THIRD
 WAVE Information

    Era
 (NOW) Nomadic Era Agricultural Era Industrial Era Time (not at scale) Exponential
  24. Socio-Economic Trends (1750-2010) Earth System Trends (1750-2010) Real GDP World


    Population Foreign Direct
 Investment Nitrous Oxide Carbon
 Dioxide Methane Primary
 energy use Urban
 population Fertilizer
 consumption Surface
 temperature Stratospheric
 ozone Ocean
 acidification Water use Large dams Paper
 production Shrimp
 aquaculture Marine fish
 capture Coastal
 nitrogen Tele-
 communications Transportation International
 tourism Domesticated
 land Tropical 
 forest loss Terrestrial
 biosphere
 degradation The Race of Two Exponentials Exponential Futur Immédiat © 2024