Unexpected is the new normal

Unexpected is the new normal

This is a chapter of the "Histoire du Futur (Future's history) classe.
The full presentation is available here : https://speakerdeck.com/futurimmediat/histoire-du-futur-futures-history-in-en

In this chapter
Frictions
VUCA

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Futur Immédiat

July 15, 2020
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Transcript

  1. UNEXPECTED IS THE NEW NORMAL

  2. 2040/2050?

  3. “Mankind will change more in the next 20 years, than

    in the last 300” Gerd Leonhard
  4. “Change means movement, movement means friction” Saul Alinsky

  5. 30 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  6. 31 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  7. 32 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  8. 33 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  9. 34 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  10. 35 SOCIAL FRICTIONS

  11. HACTIVISTS ANONYMOUS, ARAB SPRINGS, WHISTLEBLOWERS

  12. KEYBOARD WARRIORS

  13. IDIOCRACY

  14. IDIOCRACY READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME

  15. 40 7" 11" 15" 2000" 2005" 2010" 2015" 9"Seconds" ?

    Average attention span since public internet IDIOCRACY ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION
  16. IDIOCRACY LANGUAGE PAUPERISATION

  17. IDIOCRACY IQ DECREASE

  18. 43 IDIOCRACY

  19. IDIOCRACY BRAIN ROT THEORY

  20. 45 TECHNOLOGICAL FRICTIONS

  21. INFORMATIONAL CHAOS

  22. THE MATRIX HAS YOU

  23. THE MATRIX HAS YOU

  24. 49 THE MATRIX HAS YOU

  25. 50 INFORMATIONAL CHAOS OPINION DIVIDE

  26. Source : washingtonexaminer.com FAKE NEWS

  27. DEEP FAKE

  28. CONSPIRACY THEORIES

  29. 3D PRINTING

  30. ROBOTICS

  31. NANOTECHNOLOGIES

  32. BIOTECHNOLOGIES

  33. IOT

  34. AI

  35. 60 DIGITAL IS DEAD

  36. 61 SKILLS SCARCITY

  37. 62 ENVIRONMENTAL FRICTIONS

  38. CARBON CRISIS

  39. 64 ECO SYSTEM CRISIS

  40. 65 POLLUTION CRISIS

  41. 66 RESOURCES CRISIS

  42. 67 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS

  43. 68 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS A MORE BALANCED WORLD

  44. A MORE BALANCED WORLD MINT, PIST, Emerging 7, Next 11

  45. 70 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE “NEW” ECONOMY

  46. ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS COLLUSION/CORRUPTION

  47. 72 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE DEBT TRAP

  48. 73 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES

  49. 74 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS GLOBAL ENRICHMENT

  50. 75 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES

  51. $3 $6 $9 $12 million $0 1963 99th percentile $1,457,201

    1983 99th percentile $3,323,063 2016 99th percentile $10,400,000 Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES
  52. 77 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS HETERONOMOUS AND JUST-IN-TIME

  53. 78 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS ECONOMICAL GROWTH = ENERGY

  54. 79 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE LIMIT OF GROWTH

  55. 80 POLITICAL FRICTIONS

  56. 81 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS

  57. POST-DEMOCRACY

  58. Is privacy important, if you have nothing to hide? POST-DEMOCRACY

    PRIVACY
  59. “Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main du plus

    honnête homme, et j’y trouverai de quoi l’y faire pendre” Cardinal Richelieu "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will find enough therein to hang him” POST-DEMOCRACY
  60. POST-DEMOCRACY

  61. POST-DEMOCRACY

  62. DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE

  63. Source : Financial Time POST-DEMOCRACY

  64. 89 THE WORLD IS VUCA

  65. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS DEAD

  66. WIDE FUTURES’ SPECTRUM

  67. MANY FUTURES

  68. MANY FUTURES

  69. FUTURE’S TIMELINE

  70. 95 GREAT FILTER Very distant future of mankind?

  71. 96 GREAT FILTER

  72. 97 GREAT FILTER

  73. 98 4th WAVE

  74. “Past success is no guarantee of future success” Steven Van

    Belleghem
  75. “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered

    as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” Western Union internal memo (1876)
  76. “I think there is a world market for maybe five

    computers” Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman (1943)
  77. Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” Time Magazine (1966)

  78. “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer

    in their home” Ken Olsen Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)
  79. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get

    any significant market share.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (April 2007)
  80. “Is Netflix a threat? Is the Albanian army going to

    take over the world?” Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner, (2010)
  81. “Success breeds complacency Complacency breeds failure Only the paranoid survive

    “ Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)
  82. 107 SUCCESS “A Successful person isn’t necessarily better than her

    less successful peers at solving problems; Her pattern recognition facilities have just learned what problems are worth solving.” Ray Kurzweil
  83. 108 IN THE ROOM

  84. 109 “If you can describe your job, it can be

    automated” Geerd Leonhard