Unexpected is the new normal

This is a chapter of the "Histoire du Futur (Future's history) classe.
The full presentation is available here : https://speakerdeck.com/futurimmediat/histoire-du-futur-futures-history-in-en

In this chapter
Frictions
VUCA

Transcript

1. UNEXPECTED
   IS THE NEW NORMAL
   

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2. 2040/2050?
   

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3. “Mankind will change more
   in the next 20 years,
   than in the last 300”
   Gerd Leonhard
   

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4. “Change means movement,
   movement means friction”
   Saul Alinsky
   

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5. 30
   SOCIAL FRICTIONS
   

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6. 31
   SOCIAL FRICTIONS
   

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7. 32
   SOCIAL FRICTIONS
   

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8. 33
   SOCIAL FRICTIONS
   

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9. 34
   SOCIAL FRICTIONS
   

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10. 35
    SOCIAL FRICTIONS
    

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11. HACTIVISTS
    ANONYMOUS, ARAB SPRINGS, WHISTLEBLOWERS
    

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12. KEYBOARD WARRIORS
    

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13. IDIOCRACY
    

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14. IDIOCRACY
    READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME
    

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15. 40
    7"
    11"
    15"
    2000" 2005" 2010" 2015"
    9"Seconds"
    ?
    Average attention span since public internet
    IDIOCRACY
    ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION
    

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16. IDIOCRACY
    LANGUAGE PAUPERISATION
    

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17. IDIOCRACY
    IQ DECREASE
    

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18. 43
    IDIOCRACY
    

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19. IDIOCRACY
    BRAIN ROT THEORY
    

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20. 45
    TECHNOLOGICAL FRICTIONS
    

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21. INFORMATIONAL CHAOS
    

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22. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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23. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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24. 49
    THE MATRIX HAS YOU
    

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25. 50
    INFORMATIONAL CHAOS
    OPINION DIVIDE
    

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26. Source : washingtonexaminer.com
    FAKE NEWS
    

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27. DEEP FAKE
    

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28. CONSPIRACY THEORIES
    

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29. 3D PRINTING
    

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30. ROBOTICS
    

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31. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
    

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32. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
    

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33. IOT
    

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34. AI
    

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35. 60
    DIGITAL IS DEAD
    

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36. 61
    SKILLS SCARCITY
    

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37. 62
    ENVIRONMENTAL FRICTIONS
    

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38. CARBON CRISIS
    

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39. 64
    ECO SYSTEM CRISIS
    

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40. 65
    POLLUTION CRISIS
    

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41. 66
    RESOURCES CRISIS
    

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42. 67
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    

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43. 68
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    A MORE BALANCED WORLD
    

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44. A MORE BALANCED WORLD
    MINT, PIST, Emerging 7, Next 11
    

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45. 70
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE “NEW” ECONOMY
    

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46. ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    COLLUSION/CORRUPTION
    

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47. 72
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE DEBT TRAP
    

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48. 73
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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49. 74
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    GLOBAL ENRICHMENT
    

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50. 75
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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51. $3
    $6
    $9
    $12 million
    $0
    1963
    99th percentile
    $1,457,201
    1983
    99th percentile
    $3,323,063
    2016
    99th percentile
    $10,400,000
    Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    INEQUALITIES
    

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52. 77
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    HETERONOMOUS AND JUST-IN-TIME
    

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53. 78
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    ECONOMICAL GROWTH = ENERGY
    

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54. 79
    ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
    THE LIMIT OF GROWTH
    

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55. 80
    POLITICAL FRICTIONS
    

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56. 81
    GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS
    

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57. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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58. Is privacy important,
    if you have nothing
    to hide?
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    PRIVACY
    

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59. “Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main
    du plus honnête homme, et j’y trouverai
    de quoi l’y faire pendre”
    Cardinal Richelieu
    "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will find enough therein to hang him”
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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60. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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61. POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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62. DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE
    

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63. Source : Financial Time
    POST-DEMOCRACY
    

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64. 89
    THE WORLD IS VUCA
    

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65. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS DEAD
    

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66. WIDE FUTURES’ SPECTRUM
    

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67. MANY FUTURES
    

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68. MANY FUTURES
    

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69. FUTURE’S TIMELINE
    

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70. 95
    GREAT FILTER
    Very distant future of mankind?
    

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71. 96
    GREAT FILTER
    

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72. 97
    GREAT FILTER
    

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73. 98
    4th WAVE
    

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74. “Past success is no
    guarantee of future
    success”
    Steven Van Belleghem
    

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75. “This telephone has too many
    shortcomings to be seriously
    considered as a means of
    communication.
    The device is inherently of no
    value to us”
    Western Union internal memo (1876)
    

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76. “I think there is a world market
    for maybe five computers”
    Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman
    (1943)
    

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77. Remote shopping,
    while entirely feasible,
    will flop.”
    Time Magazine (1966)
    

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78. “There is no reason why anyone would
    want a computer in their home”
    Ken Olsen
    Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)
    

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79. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is
    going to get any significant market
    share.”
    Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (April 2007)
    

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80. “Is Netflix a threat?
    Is the Albanian army going to
    take over the world?”
    Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner,
    (2010)
    

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81. “Success breeds complacency
    Complacency breeds failure
    Only the paranoid survive “
    Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)
    

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82. 107
    SUCCESS
    “A Successful person isn’t necessarily
    better than her less successful peers
    at solving problems;
    Her pattern recognition facilities have
    just learned what problems are worth
    solving.”
    Ray Kurzweil
    

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83. 108
    IN THE ROOM
    

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84. 109
    “If you can describe your job,
    it can be automated”
    Geerd Leonhard
    

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