Unexpected is the new normal

This is a chapter of the "Histoire du Futur (Future's history) classe.
The full presentation is available here : https://speakerdeck.com/futurimmediat/histoire-du-futur-futures-history-in-en

In this chapter
Frictions
VUCA

Transcript

1. UNEXPECTED IS THE NEW NORMAL
2. 2040/2050?
3. “Mankind will change more in the next 20 years, than in the last 300” Gerd Leonhard
4. “Change means movement, movement means friction” Saul Alinsky
5. 30 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
6. 31 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
7. 32 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
8. 33 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
9. 34 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
10. 35 SOCIAL FRICTIONS
11. HACTIVISTS ANONYMOUS, ARAB SPRINGS, WHISTLEBLOWERS
12. KEYBOARD WARRIORS
13. IDIOCRACY
14. IDIOCRACY READING TIME REPLACED BY SCREEN TIME
15. 40 7" 11" 15" 2000" 2005" 2010" 2015" 9"Seconds" ? Average attention span since public internet IDIOCRACY ATTENTION FRAGMENTATION
16. IDIOCRACY LANGUAGE PAUPERISATION
17. IDIOCRACY IQ DECREASE
18. 43 IDIOCRACY
19. IDIOCRACY BRAIN ROT THEORY
20. 45 TECHNOLOGICAL FRICTIONS
21. INFORMATIONAL CHAOS
22. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
23. THE MATRIX HAS YOU
24. 49 THE MATRIX HAS YOU
25. 50 INFORMATIONAL CHAOS OPINION DIVIDE
26. Source : washingtonexaminer.com FAKE NEWS
27. DEEP FAKE
28. CONSPIRACY THEORIES
29. 3D PRINTING
30. ROBOTICS
31. NANOTECHNOLOGIES
32. BIOTECHNOLOGIES
33. IOT
34. AI
35. 60 DIGITAL IS DEAD
36. 61 SKILLS SCARCITY
37. 62 ENVIRONMENTAL FRICTIONS
38. CARBON CRISIS
39. 64 ECO SYSTEM CRISIS
40. 65 POLLUTION CRISIS
41. 66 RESOURCES CRISIS
42. 67 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS
43. 68 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS A MORE BALANCED WORLD
44. A MORE BALANCED WORLD MINT, PIST, Emerging 7, Next 11
45. 70 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE “NEW” ECONOMY
46. ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS COLLUSION/CORRUPTION
47. 72 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE DEBT TRAP
48. 73 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES
49. 74 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS GLOBAL ENRICHMENT
50. 75 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES
51. $3 $6 $9 $12 million $0 1963 99th percentile $1,457,201 1983 99th percentile $3,323,063 2016 99th percentile $10,400,000 Source: Urban Institute calculations from Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers 1962 (December 31), Survey of Changes in Family Finances 1963, and Survey of Consumer Finances 1983-2016 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS INEQUALITIES
52. 77 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS HETERONOMOUS AND JUST-IN-TIME
53. 78 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS ECONOMICAL GROWTH = ENERGY
54. 79 ECONOMICAL FRICTIONS THE LIMIT OF GROWTH
55. 80 POLITICAL FRICTIONS
56. 81 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS
57. POST-DEMOCRACY
58. Is privacy important, if you have nothing to hide? POST-DEMOCRACY PRIVACY
59. “Donnez moi 6 lignes écrites de la main du plus honnête homme, et j’y trouverai de quoi l’y faire pendre” Cardinal Richelieu "Give me 6 lines from the most honest man, I will find enough therein to hang him” POST-DEMOCRACY
60. POST-DEMOCRACY
61. POST-DEMOCRACY
62. DIGITAL SURVEILLANCE
63. Source : Financial Time POST-DEMOCRACY
64. 89 THE WORLD IS VUCA
65. BUSINESS AS USUAL IS DEAD
66. WIDE FUTURES’ SPECTRUM
67. MANY FUTURES
68. MANY FUTURES
69. FUTURE’S TIMELINE
70. 95 GREAT FILTER Very distant future of mankind?
71. 96 GREAT FILTER
72. 97 GREAT FILTER
73. 98 4th WAVE
74. “Past success is no guarantee of future success” Steven Van Belleghem
75. “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” Western Union internal memo (1876)
76. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman (1943)
77. Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” Time Magazine (1966)
78. “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home” Ken Olsen Digital Equipement Corp. Founder (1977)
79. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO (April 2007)
80. “Is Netflix a threat? Is the Albanian army going to take over the world?” Jeffery Bewkles CEO Time Warner, (2010)
81. “Success breeds complacency Complacency breeds failure Only the paranoid survive “ Andy Grove (former Intel CEO)
82. 107 SUCCESS “A Successful person isn’t necessarily better than her less successful peers at solving problems; Her pattern recognition facilities have just learned what problems are worth solving.” Ray Kurzweil
83. 108 IN THE ROOM
84. 109 “If you can describe your job, it can be automated” Geerd Leonhard