Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers (MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~39MM netbooks have shipped in first eight quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 9 Quarters After Launch Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~57MM ~25MM ~7MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~11MM 26 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Smartphone Mobile Phone Global Users (MM) Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Users, 2013E Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Note: One user may have multiple devices - actual number of actual smartphone + mobile phone devices in use (subscription numbers) may be higher than user numbers. 1.5B Smartphone Users 5B+ Mobile Phone Users 41
1.5x per Year & Likely to Maintain Trajectory or Accelerate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 % of Internet Traffic Global Mobile Traffic as % of Total Internet Traffic, 12/08 – 5/13 (with Trendline Projection to 5/15E) 0.9% in 5/09 2.4% in 5/10 15% in 5/13 Source: StatCounter Global Stats, 5/13. Note that PC-based Internet data bolstered by streaming. 32 6% in 5/11 10% in 5/12 Trendline E E
Base in Q2:13E Global Installed Base of Desktop PCs + Notebook PCs vs. Smartphones + Tablets, 2009-2015E Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Assumes the following lifecycles: Desktop PCs – 5 years; Notebooks PCs – 4 years; Smartphones – 2 years; Tablets – 2.5 years. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Data and Estimates as of 9/12. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Global Installed Base (MMs) Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Smartphones Q2:13E: Projected Inflection Point Smartphones + Tablet Installed Base > Total PCs Installed Base Tablets 26
Win Big in New Cycles While Incumbents Often Falter Mainframe Computing 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: FactSet, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Yahoo! Japan Amazon.com Tencent Alibaba Baidu Rakuten Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs 16 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
Jawbone, Pebble. Technology Cycles Have Tended to Last Ten Years Technology Cycles – Still Early Cycle on Smartphones + Tablets, Now Wearables Coming on Strong, Faster than Typical 10-Year Cycle Mainframe Computing 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s Wearable / Everywhere Computing 2014+ Others? 49
Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research. New Major Technology Cycles = Often Support 10x More Users & Devices, Driven by Lower Price + Improved Functionality 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale) 1MM+ Units 100MM+ Units 10B+ Units??? 10MM+ Units Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E 1B+ Units / Users 50
desktop and thus will be performed there… Yes, you might enter a stock trade with your broker's mobile app, but you'll research new mutual funds on the desktop. —Jakob Nielsen
of the eBay Mobile team was laid off or re-assigned to other parts of the company. Executives wanted to focus on the “core” of the business, and eBay Mobile was evidently not considered “core”. —Alan Lewis, Original developer of eBay iPhone App http://alanlewis.typepad.com/weblog/2011/01/ebay-for-iphone-why-it-almost-didnt-happen.html
on their mobile devices, it’s that they’ll do anything on mobile if they have the need. Write long emails? Check. Manage complex sets of information? Check. And the list goes on. If people want to do it, they’ll do it on mobile -especially when it’s their only or most convenient option. —Luke Wroblewski lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?1333
3 (media query in document head) 320 px to 720 px wide 720 px to 1024 px major breakpoints Example major layout changes 320 720 Major Breakpoint 2 (media query in document head) nothing is here...but that’s ok! (P) = Portrait (L) = Landscape (L*) = Landscape w/ native viewport adaptation < 320 px wide and/or unable to understand further instructions 1024 iPhone (P) many Android (P) many BlackBerry S60 QWERTY Most S60 (L) S40 QWERTY some tablets most NetBooks many Desktops http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/pragmatic-responsive-design
Android (L*) some Symbian touch (L) some tablets (L) some Symbian touch (L) 640 768 360 720 Major Breakpoint 1 (media query in document head) Major Breakpoint 2 (media query in document head) 720 px to 1024 px 320 px to 720 px wide nothing is here...but that’s ok! 320 minor breakpoints Example Symbian touch (P) (P) = Portrait (L) = Landscape (L*) = Landscape w/ native viewport adaptation iPhone (P) many Android (P) many BlackBerry S60 QWERTY Most S60 (L) S40 QWERTY < 320 px wide and/or unable to understand further instructions iPad (P) some Android tablets (P) Minor Breakpoint (@media) 1024 Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) 480 some tablets most NetBooks many Desktops content-related tweaks http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/pragmatic-responsive-design
(L) Minor Breakpoint (@media) Major Breakpoint 3 (media query in document head) 480 640 768 360 Symbian touch (P) 720 Major Breakpoint 1 (media query in document head) Major Breakpoint 2 (media query in document head) 720 px to 1024 px 320 px to 720 px wide nothing is here...but that’s ok! 320 240 Minor Breakpoint for small devices w/media query support < 320 px wide and/or unable to understand further instructions ...and so on Example some Symbian touch (L) (P) = Portrait (L) = Landscape (L*) = Landscape w/ native viewport adaptation iPad (P) some Android tablets (P) 1024 TVs Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) iPhone (P) many Android (P) many BlackBerry S60 QWERTY Most S60 (L) S40 QWERTY some Android (P) many S40 (P) most S60 (P) some tablets most NetBooks many Desktops http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/pragmatic-responsive-design
out of hand... iPhone (L*) Android (L*) some Symbian touch (L) some tablets (L) Minor Breakpoint (@media) some tablets (L) 640 768 360 Symbian touch (P) 720 Major Breakpoint 1 (media query in document head) Major Breakpoint 2 (media query in document head) TVs 720 px to 1024 px 320 px to 720 px wide nothing is here...but that’s ok! 320 240 Minor Breakpoint for small devices w/media query support some Android (P) many S40 (P) most S60 (P) < 320 px wide and/or unable to understand further instructions some Symbian touch (L) iPad (P) some Android tablets (P) Minor Breakpoints (@media) some tablets (L) 1280 800 Minor Breakpoint (@media) 600 some tablets (P) some tablets most NetBooks many Desktops 1366 many laptops Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) Minor Breakpoint (@media) Major Breakpoint 3 (media query in document head) iPhone (P) many Android (P) many BlackBerry S60 QWERTY Most S60 (L) S40 QWERTY Minor Breakpoint (@media) 480 1024 http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/pragmatic-responsive-design
lot like fully-functioning Twitter Bootstrap- style systems custom tailored for your clients’ needs. These living code samples are self-documenting style guides that extend to accommodate a client’s needs as well as the needs of the ever-evolving multi-device web. —Dave Rupert, Responsive Deliverables http://daverupert.com/2013/04/responsive-deliverables/ “
UI to a tablet UI is not so dissimilar from trying to automatically adapt desktop UI to a phone. They are fundamentally different platforms with different usability considerations, and something that makes sense on phones may or may not belong on tablets. —Todd Anglin, Kendo UI http://www.kendoui.com/blogs/teamblog/posts/12-09-11/universal_mobile_apps_with_html5_and_kendo_ui.aspx
Less precise than mouse and requires larger touch targets Typing easier for many No hover state Typing often more difficult Right clicking and “power” tools Single and multi-touch gestures
detect whether or not the current device has a touchscreen, from within the browser. —Stu Cox, You Can’t Reliably Detect a Touch Screen http://www.stucox.com/blog/you-cant-detect-a-touchscreen/
conclusion is: every desktop UI should be designed for touch now. When any desktop machine could have a touch interface, we have to proceed as if they all do. —Josh Clark http://globalmoxie.com/blog/desktop-touch-design.shtml
mouse Pointer Events builds on the DOM event model to offer a new way to handle input on the web, enabling developers to build touch-first experiences that work with mouse, pen, and other pointing devices as well…They are also designed from the ground up to allow modern browsers to accelerate the touch-surface performance, leading to a smoother user experience.
Of The Dream Exp… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience -… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience … Uploaded 2 years ago The Love King Breaks It… Uploaded 2 years ago War Paint for Trees From Lincoln Motor Company Join Log In Create Watch Upload Search s [ ] – VIDEOS Vimeo Couch Mode
viewed / Related videos Th Dream Experience - … Uploaded 2 years ago More Of The Dream Exp… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience -… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience … Uploaded 2 years ago The Love King Breaks It… Uploaded 2 years ago PROMOTED War Paint for Trees From Lincoln Motor Company Join Log In Create Watch Upload Search s [ ] – VIDEOS Vimeo Couch Mode
viewed / Related videos Th Dream Experience - … Uploaded 2 years ago More Of The Dream Exp… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience -… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience … Uploaded 2 years ago The Love King Breaks It… Uploaded 2 years ago PROMOTED War Paint for Trees From Lincoln Motor Company Join Log In Create Watch Upload Search s [ ] – VIDEOS Couch Mode + See all Centric TV’s videos / Recently viewed / Related videos Th Dream Experience - … Uploaded 2 years ago More Of The Dream Exp… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience -… Uploaded 2 years ago The Dream Experience … Uploaded 2 years ago The Love King Breaks It… Uploaded 2 years ago PROMOTED War Paint for Trees From Lincoln Motor Company Join Log In Create Watch Upload Search s [ ] – VIDEOS Vimeo Couch Mode