of the time interval distribution using doubly interval-censored likelihood doubly interval-censored likelihood ҎԼͷ௨Γ. L(Θ|D) = ∏ i ∫ ER,i EL,i ∫ S R,i S L,i g(e) f(s − e)dsde (3.1) ͜͜Ͱ, f(t) Λͦͷ··࠾༻͢ΔͱબόΠΞε1͕͔͔ΔͨΊ, ӈଆஅ right truncation Λߟྀͯ͠ҎԼͷࣜΛ༻͍ͨ. f′(s − e, e) = f(s − e) ∫ T−e 0 re−ru 1 − e−ru F(T − e − u)du (3.2) ͜͜Ͱ, r ࢦؔత૿ՃͰ F(·) f(·) ͷྦྷੵؔ. T ࠷৽ͷ؍ଌ࣌ࠁ2Λࣔ͢. ͯ͞, ैͬͯҎԼͷΑ͏ʹͳΔ. ·ͨ͜ͷͱ͖ΠϯςάϥϧҎԼΛ ιi ͱͯ࣍͠ͷΑ͏ʹද͢. L′(Θ|D) = ∏ i ∫ ER,i EL,i ∫ S R,i S L,i g(e) f′(s − e, e)dsde ιi = ∫ ER,i EL,i ∫ S R,i S L,i g(e) f′(s − e, e)dsde (3.3) S L,i > ER,i ͷͱ͖, s′ = s − e ͱஔͯ࣍͠ͷΑ͏ʹมܗͰ͖Δ. ιi = ∫ ER,i EL,i de g(e) ∫ S R,i −e S L,i −e f′(s′, e)ds′ = ∫ ER,i EL,i g(e) { F′(S R,i − e, e) − F′(S L,i − e, e) } de (3.4) ER,i > S L,i > EL,i Ͱ͋Δͱ͖, ҎԼͷΑ͏ʹͳΔ. ιi = ∫ S l,i EL,i g(e){F′(SR,i − e, e) − F′(S L,i − e, e)}de + ∫ ER,i S L,i g(e)F′(S R,i − e, e)de (3.5) ࠷ޙʹ, EL,i > S L,i Ͱ͋Δͱ͖, ҎԼͷΑ͏ʹͳΔ. ιi = ∫ ER,i EL,i g(e)F′(SR,i − e, e)de (3.6) ͜ͷΑ͏ʹ߹͚Λͯ͠ time interval ΛͦΕͧΕٻΊͨ.3 f(s − e) ΨϯϚ, ରਖ਼ن, ϫΠϒϧΛߟ͑ͨ. 3.2.2 Estimation of the time interval distribution using Bayesian framework Bayes ਪఆʹΑΓ time interval distribution ΛٻΊΔ. ࣄલରਖ਼ن, ΨϯϚ, ϫΠϒϧΛߟ͑Ϛϧίϑ࿈ϞϯςΧϧϩ๏ (MCMC)4ʹΑͬͯϞϯςΧϧϩੵ͔Βඇஅରʹର͢Δࣄޙ༧ଌ (time interval distribution) Λਪఆ͢Δ. ͳ͓, ରਖ਼نͱ ϫΠϒϧͲͪΒඪ४ਖ਼نʹै͏. ΨϯϚ shape parameter ฏۉ 3, ඪ४ภࠩ 5 ͷਖ਼نʹै͍, inverse scale parameter , location parameter Λ 0, scale parameter Λ 5.0 ʹͱΔίʔγʔͱ͠֊ϕΠζΛߟ͑ͨ.5ͳ͓, ࣄલͷબ Stan developer community ʹΑΔਪ6ʹैͬͨ. ·ͨ, times of exposure ͱ illness onset ͷࣄલҎԼͷΑ͏ʹఆࣜԽͨ͠. ei = EL,i + (ER,i − EL,i )˜ ei si = ˆ S L,i + (S R,i − ˆ S L,i )˜ si (3.7) ͜ͷͱ͖, ei > S L,i ͳΒ ˆ S L,i = ei , ei = S L,i ͳΒ ˆ S L,i = S L,i Ͱ͋Δ. ei < S L,i ͷͱ͖ ˜ ei ͱ˜ si ࣍ͷʹै͏. ˜ ei ∼ nomal(mean = 0.5, S D = 0.5), ˜ si ∼ nomal(mean = 0.5, S D = 0.5) 1ੜଘ࣌ؒղੳͷ. ଧͪΓ censoring (அ truncation) ͕ߟྀ͞ΕΔ͖ิਖ਼Ͱ͢. ࠓճͷ right truncation જ෬ظ͕͍ؒ߹ʹΤϯυϙΠϯτͷઃఆʹΑΓ؍ଌ͞Εͣ, population of interest ͱ sampled population ͕ҟͳͬͯ͠·͍ selection bias ͕ൃੜ͢Δঢ়ଶΛ͍͏. Inverse probability weighting methods for Cox regression with rightʖtruncated data (https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13162). 2͜ͷͱ͖ 2020 1 ݄ 31 . 3࣮ࡍͷσʔλΛ༻͍ͨܭࢉ R Λ༻ͨ͠. 4No U-Turn Sampler(NUTS) Λ࣮ͨ͠ Stan ʹΑΓཚੜߦΘΕͨ. 5Ұൠͱͯ͠֊ϕΠζ࠷๏͕͘͠ AIC ͰධՁͣ͠Β͍ͷͰ, MCMC Λ༻͍ͯ WAIC Λߟ͑Δࣄ͕ଟ͍. 6Stan developer team. Prior choice recommendations. https://github.com/stan- dev/stan/wiki/Prior-Choice-Recommendations. Assessed 6 February 2020. 7