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SaaS アナリティクス・シリーズ - 生存分析のためのデータの作り方 Part 1

SaaS アナリティクス・シリーズ - 生存分析のためのデータの作り方 Part 1

SaaSなどのサブスクリプションのビジネスでは顧客のチャーンをしっかりと理解することが非常に重要になりますが、そこでよく使われるのが生存分析です。

今回は、支払いのデータから生存分析ためのデータを作成する方法を紹介します。

Ikuya Murasato

June 03, 2021
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  1. 7 • ୈ1ճɿ SaaSͷ࠷ॏཁKPI ͱͦͷՄࢹԽ Part 1 • ୈ2ճɿ SaaSͷ࠷ॏཁKPI

    ͱͦͷՄࢹԽ Part 2 • ୈ3ճɿ Τϯήʔδϝϯτ Part 1 - DAU/MAU • ୈ4ճɿΤϯήʔδϝϯτ Part 2 - ύϫʔϢʔβʔɾΧʔϒ • ୈ5ճɿ Τϯήʔδϝϯτ Part 3 -RFV෼ੳ • ୈ6ճɿίϗʔτ෼ੳ Part 1 - ϨΠϠʔέʔΩɾνϟʔτ • ୈ7ճɿ ίϗʔτ෼ੳ Part 2 - ੜଘۂઢ • ୈ8ճɿCLVʢސ٬ੜ֔Ձ஋ʣͷܭࢉ • ୈ9ճɿ NPSʢωοτɾϓϩϞʔλʔɾείΞʣͷܭࢉ • ୈ10ճɿΞϯέʔτσʔλͷςΩετ෼ੳ • ୈ11ճɿCESʢސ٬౒ྗࢦඪʣͷܭࢉ • ୈ12ճɿ SaaSϏδωε࠷ॏཁKPI τοϓ5 • ୈ13ճɿ SaaSϏδωεͷάϩʔεKPI
  2. 15 ίϯόʔ δϣϯ ίϯόʔ δϣϯ ίϯόʔ δϣϯ ίϯόʔ δϣϯ ίϯόʔ

    δϣϯ 1݄ 2݄ 3݄ 4݄ νϟʔϯ ίϯόʔ δϣϯ νϟʔϯ +1ສԁ +2ສԁ 0ԁ +1ສԁ SaaSϏδωεͷ੒௕ʹ͸ɺίϯόʔδϣϯΛ૿΍͚ͩ͢Ͱͳ͘ɺ νϟʔϯΛݮΒͯ͠ɺϦςϯγϣϯΛྑ͘͢Δ͜ͱ΋ॏཁͱͳΔɻ
  3. 21 ాத͞Μ ླ໦͞Μ ࢁా͞Μ ࠤ౻͞Μ 4ϲ݄໨ 3ϲ݄໨ 2ϲ݄໨ 1ϲ݄໨ 0.5

    0.66 0.75 1 2ϲ݄໨·Ͱސ٬͕ར༻Λܧଓ͢Δ֬཰͸0.75ʢ75%ʣ 0.75 1*0.75 1
  4. 22 ాத͞Μ ླ໦͞Μ ࢁా͞Μ ࠤ౻͞Μ 4ϲ݄໨ 3ϲ݄໨ 2ϲ݄໨ 1ϲ݄໨ 0.5

    0.66 0.75 1 3ϲ݄໨·Ͱސ٬͕ར༻Λܧଓ͢Δ֬཰͸0.5ʢ50%ʣ 0.75 0.75 * 0.66 0.5 1
  5. 23 ాத͞Μ ླ໦͞Μ ࢁా͞Μ ࠤ౻͞Μ 4ϲ݄໨ 3ϲ݄໨ 2ϲ݄໨ 1ϲ݄໨ 0.5

    0.66 0.75 1 4ϲ݄໨·Ͱސ٬͕ར༻Λܧଓ͢Δ֬཰͸0.25ʢ25%ʣ 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.5 * 0.5 1
  6. 24 1ϲ݄ޙ 2ϲ݄ޙ 3ϲ݄ޙ 4ϲ݄ޙ 5ϲ݄ޙ ܦա࣌ؒ 100% 40% 32%

    60% 48% 35% ੜଘ཰ ௨ࢉͷϦςϯγϣϯ཰ΛՄࢹԽͨ͠νϟʔτΛੜଘۂઢͱݺͿɻ
  7. 25 40% 32% 60% 48% 40% 20% 35% 1ϲ݄ޙ 2ϲ݄ޙ

    3ϲ݄ޙ 4ϲ݄ޙ 5ϲ݄ޙ ܦա࣌ؒ 17% αʔϏεͷར༻։͔࢝Β೔͕ઙ͍ͱɺαʔϏεͷՁ஋Λ֬৴ͤͣʹར༻࢝͠ΊΔ͜ ͱ΋ଟ͍ͨΊɺར༻ظ͕ؒ୹͍ސ٬ͷνϟʔϯ཰͸ߴ͘ͳΓ͕ͪͰ͋Δɻ
  8. ΞϝϦΧͷϢʔβʔͷ ίϗʔτ ೔ຊͷϢʔβʔͷ ίϗʔτ 1ϲ݄ޙ 2ϲ݄ޙ 3ϲ݄ޙ 4ϲ݄ޙ 5ϲ݄ޙ 39

    ΞϝϦΧΑΓ೔ຊͷίϗʔτͷੜଘۂઢͷ܏͖ͷํ͕ʮ؇΍͔ʯͳͷ Ͱɺੜଘ཰͕ߴ͘ɺϦςϯγϣϯ͕ྑ͍ɻ 6ϲ݄ޙ
  9. 45 1ϲ݄ޙ 2ϲ݄ޙ 3ϲ݄ޙ 4ϲ݄ޙ 5ϲ݄ޙ ܦա࣌ؒ 40% 32% 60%

    48% 35% ੜଘ཰ Ϧςϯγϣϯ΍νϟʔϯͷ෼ੳʹ͸ɺੜଘۂઢΛ࢖͏͜ͱ͕ॏཁɻ
  10. 56 3݄ 2݄ ࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍೔͸ސ٬ͷར༻ͷऴྃ೔Ͱ͸ͳ͍ɻ࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍ʹΑΔܖ໿ͷऴྃ ೔͕ɺऴྃ೔ͱͳΔɻ Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

    Friday Saturday 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ܖ໿ ऴྃ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  11. 72 ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇͕3/10ͩͱ͢Δɻ Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 31

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  12. 73 ࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍͕2/3ͷސ٬ͷ৔߹͸ɺ͢Ͱʹνϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠Δͱ൑ఆͰ ͖Δɻ Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

    31 1 2 3 4 5 6 ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍ 7 8 9 10 11 12 13       14 15 16 17 18 19 20        21 22 23 24 25 26 27        28 1 2 3 4 5 6  Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6       7 8 9 10 11 12 13    ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  13. 74 ࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍͕2/13ͷސ٬ͷ৔߹͸ɺ30೔Ҏ಺ʹࢧ෷͍͕͋ΔͷͰ νϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͱ൑ఆͰ͖Δɻ Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

    31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13      ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20        21 22 23 24 25 26 27        28 1 2 3 4 5 6  Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6       7 8 9 10 11 12 13    ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  14. ࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍͕2/9ͷސ٬ͷ৔߹ɺ30೔Ҏ಺ʹࢧ෷͍͕͋ΔͷͰɺ νϟʔϯΛ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍͸ͣɻ͔͠͠ɻɻɻ 75 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

    31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13  ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍     14 15 16 17 18 19 20        21 22 23 24 25 26 27        28 1 2 3 4 5 6  Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6       7 8 9 10 11 12 13    ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  15. 76 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 31 1

    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ܖ໿ ऴྃ೔ ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄ ͨͩ͠ɺ2/9͕࠷ޙͷࢧ෷͍೔ͳΒɺ࣍ͷࢧ෷͍೔͸1ϲ݄ޙͷલ೔ͷ3/8ɻ͜ͷ೔ ʹࢧ෷͍͕ͳ͍ͱ͍͏͜ͱ͸͜ͷސ٬͸νϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠Δͱ൑ఆ͢Δ΂͖Ͱ͋Δɻ
  16. ܖ໿ऴྃ೔͕ࠓ೔ΑΓલ͔ޙ͔ͰνϟʔϯΛ൑ఆ͢Δ΂͖ɻ 78 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 31

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ࠷ޙͷ ࢧ෷͍ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ܖ໿ ऴྃ೔ ࠓ೔ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 3݄ 2݄
  17. ೔෇ ̍ϲ݄ޙͷ೔෇ 2020-01-25 2020-02-25 2020–02-03 2020–03-03 2020–03-10 2020–04-10 2020–05-20 2020–06-20

    monthsؔ਺Λར༻͢Δͱɺ1ϲ݄ޙͷ೔෇ΛܭࢉͰ͖Δɻ 83 ೔෇ + months(1)
  18. ೔෇ ̍ϲ݄ޙͷ೔෇ 2020-01-28 2020-02-2 2020-01-29 2020-02-29 2020-01-30 2020-02-30 2020-01-31 2020-02-31

    84 ೔෇ + months(1) ͨͩ͠monthsؔ਺Λར༻ͨ͠ܭࢉ͸ɺಉ݄͡ͷ೔Λܭࢉ͢ΔͨΊɺଘ ࡏ͠ͳ͍೔෇͕ܭࢉ͞ΕΔɻ
  19. ೔෇ ̍ϲ݄ޙͷ೔෇ 2020-01-28 2020-02-28 2020-01-29 <NA> 2020-01-30 <NA> 2020-01-31 <NA>

    ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍೔෇͸ܽଛ஋(NA)ͱͯ͠஋͕ฦ͞ΕΔɻ 85 ೔෇ + months(1)