The AI Revolution will not be Monopoilized

C005d9d90f1b1b1c2a0a478d67f1fee9?s=47 Ines Montani
November 22, 2018

The AI Revolution will not be Monopoilized

Who's going to "win at AI"? There are now several large companies eager to claim that title. Others say that China will take over, leaving Europe and the US far behind. But short of true Artificial General Intelligence, there's no reason to believe that machine learning or data science will have a single winner. Instead, AI will follow the same trajectory as other technologies for building software: lots of developers, a rich ecosystem, many failed projects and a few shining success stories.

C005d9d90f1b1b1c2a0a478d67f1fee9?s=128

Ines Montani

November 22, 2018
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  1. The AI Revolution will not be Monopolized Ines Montani Explosion

    AI
  2. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python

  3. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python Company

    and digital studio, bootstrapped with consulting
  4. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python Company

    and digital studio, bootstrapped with consulting First commercial product: radically efficient data collection and annotation tool, powered by active learning
  5. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python Company

    and digital studio, bootstrapped with consulting First commercial product: radically efficient data collection and annotation tool, powered by active learning You are here!
  6. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python Company

    and digital studio, bootstrapped with consulting First commercial product: radically efficient data collection and annotation tool, powered by active learning Extension platform with a SaaS layer to help users scale up annotation projects SCALE You are here!
  7. Open-source library for industrial-strength Natural Language Processing in Python Company

    and digital studio, bootstrapped with consulting First commercial product: radically efficient data collection and annotation tool, powered by active learning Coming soon: pre-trained, customisable models for a variety of languages and domains You are here! Extension platform with a SaaS layer to help users scale up annotation projects SCALE
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  22. The concept of an “AI race” is hopelessly confused.

  23. Implications of an “AI race” races are competitive races have

    winners and losers races have a start and an end
  24. What do we mean by AI?

  25. What do we mean by AI? Specific consumer products?

  26. What do we mean by AI? Specific consumer products? “Artificial

    General Intelligence”?
  27. What do we mean by AI? Specific consumer products? “Artificial

    General Intelligence”? A technocratic dictatorship?
  28. What do we mean by AI? Specific consumer products? “Artificial

    General Intelligence”? A technocratic dictatorship? A robot army?
  29. What do we mean by AI? Specific consumer products? “Artificial

    General Intelligence”? A technocratic dictatorship? A robot army? Machine Learning research?
  30. Monopolizing a new 
 product category?

  31. Monopolizing a new 
 product category? Lots of new products

    will use machine learning Many will be monopolized. By who? Fair question! If different companies make all these products, who “won” at AI?
  32. Being the first to develop “Artificial General Intelligence”?

  33. Being the first to develop “Artificial General Intelligence”? Very hard

    to extrapolate from here to proper AGI If someone develops AGI, will it even matter who?
  34. Being the first to develop “Artificial General Intelligence”? Whatever you

    believe about AGI... “AGI is science fiction”
 Okay, so there’s nothing to win “AGI is an existential threat”
 Okay, so nobody will win “AGI will solve all our problems”
 Okay, so everybody wins?
  35. Using new technology
 to oppress people?

  36. Using new technology
 to oppress people? Oppression is a risk

    we should talk about in AI But hardly a race we want to win!
  37. Winning a literal arms race?

  38. Winning a literal arms race? Government research will follow, not

    lead If everyone publishes openly, nobody will pull far ahead
  39. Publishing the most
 machine learning research?

  40. Publishing the most
 machine learning research? Open research is collaborative,

    not competitive If research is published, everyone wins
  41. Why don’t companies like Google keep their 
 research secret?

  42. Reasons companies publish Attract talent. You can’t get the best

    researchers if you don’t let them publish Inevitability. Trying to lock down the secrets wouldn’t work anyway Leverage. A higher “AI waterline” is good for their business
  43. # Company / Institution Total Papers % 1 Google 60

    8.8 2 Carnegie Mellon University 48 7.1 3 Mass. Institute of Technology 43 6.3 4 Microsoft 40 5.9 5 Stanford University 39 5.7 6 University of CA, Berkeley 35 5.2 7 Deepmind 31 4.6 8 University of Oxford 22 3.2 9 University of Illinois 20 2.9 10 Georgia Institute of Technology 18 2.7 Source: NIPS Accepted Papers Stats by Robbie Allen (Medium) Nobody “dominates” 
 machine learning research
  44. Original source: gpo.gov NOV 20

  45. But what about the data? Reusing data is like reusing

    code. If it doesn’t do what you want, it’s not very useful. Personal data matters when it’s about you personally. General knowledge is easy to acquire. It doesn’t need unique proprietary datasets.
  46. Data alone won’t grant 
 anyone a monopoly Data has

    diminishing returns Making your dataset 10× bigger doesn’t 
 make it 10× better It’s just not that expensive! What datasets cost more than a manufacturing plant?
  47. We won’t all be buying “AI” from the AI Store.

  48. 
 Companies are in-housing Machine learning is software development, 


    it needs to evolve with the project Nobody has a monopoly on AI expertise, 
 people are learning quickly Owning and controlling the data is crucial for 
 many applications
  49. Vendors can provide
 products, not magic The challenge is taking

    what’s theoretically possible and applying it to a problem What matters is making the right decisions for the larger application
  50. 
 Buyers aren’t old and stupid Tech illiterate management stereotype

    is outdated Most companies let developers choose their tools Developers strongly prefer open technologies: more flexible, better career growth
  51. Rich open-source ecosystem Library GitHub URL GitHub Stars TensorFlow tensorflow/tensorflow

    115k scikit-learn scikit-learn/scikit-learn 32k PyTorch pytorch/pytorch 21k XGBoost dmlc/xgboost 14k spaCy explosion/spacy 11k Gensim RaRe-Technologies/gensim 8k NLTK nltk/nltk 7k NLTK Source: GitHub (November 2018)
  52. So, who’s going to win at AI then?

  53. ✊ The AI revolution will not 
 be monopolized There’s

    no single “AI race” – lots of people are building lots of things There’s no magic solution waiting to be discovered Nothing about machine learning suggests a monopoly or a winner-takes-all market
  54. Thanks! Explosion AI
 explosion.ai Follow us on Twitter
 @_inesmontani
 @explosion_ai