Your Marketing Attribution is Lying to You

Marketing Measurement in a Zero-Click World: Moving Beyond Last-Click Attribution & ROAS

Single-source-of-truth marketing measurement is dead. With 60% of searches now resulting in zero clicks and cookie depreciation fracturing the buyer journey, relying on last-click attribution and ROAS is driving brands into a performance plateau.

In this keynote presentation, Jaye Cowle, Founder of certified B Corp agency Launch, breaks down why fixating on bottom-of-the-funnel "efficiency plays" actively damages long-term revenue growth and how measurement teams can support marketing to build real incremental demand.

What You’ll Learn from This Deck:

The "Harry Kane" Effect: Why last-click attribution overestimates paid search impact by up to 190% and starves top-of-funnel demand creation.

Modern Customer Journeys: Moving from linear funnels to non-linear behaviour across dark social, AI overviews, and BCG’s 4 S’s (Streaming, Scrolling, Searching, Shopping).

The 3-Step Measurement Framework:

Fix It: Cleaning up data infrastructure, server-side tracking, and GTM consent foundations.

Agree It: Mapping customer personas and zero-click influence points to replace single-metric ROAS.

Improve It: Implementing incrementality testing, geo-holdout experiments, and accessible Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) like Google Meridian.

Real-World Case Study: How Cornish candle maker St. Eval shifted from search-harvesting to demand-generation, unlocking £7.50 in incremental return for every extra £1 spent.

Whether you're a CFO, CMO, or data specialist, this deck provides a practical roadmap to evolve your measurement stack, prove true incremental value, and unlock sustainable business growth.

Presented by: Jaye Cowle | Founder, Launch — Performance Marketing Powered By Happiness™

Transcript

1. Your Attribution is Lying to You Jaye Cowle Launch @launchonlineuk https://www.linkedin.com/in/jayecowle/
2. YOUR ATTRIBUTION IS LYING TO YOU How marketing measurement needs to change in a zero-click world Jaye Cowle · Founder & CEO, Launch · MeasureFest at BrightonSEO
3. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
4. THE DREAM WE WERE SOLD £1 IN. £4 OUT. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
5. THE HARRY KANE EFFECT REVIEWS 0% TIKTOK BRAND SEARCH 0% 100% CREDIT PODCAST 0% @launchonlineuk @jayecowle AI OVERVIEW 0% WORD OF MOUTH 0%
6. BUILT FOR A WORLD THAT'S GONE GONE DESKTOP Now: phones, tablets, TVs and voice, often all in one journey. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle GONE THIRDPARTY COOKIES Now: blocked, declined and disappearing. GONE PEOPLE WHO CLICKED Now: AI answers, social feeds and zero-click search.
7. 58% Source: Ahrefs, 300,000 keywords, February 2026 @launchonlineuk @jayecowle FEWER CLICKS TO THE TOP RESULT WHEN AN AI OVERVIEW SHOWS UP
8. 1 IN 100 PEOPLE CLICK A LINK INSIDE AN AI SUMMARY With an AI summary, people click any result 8% of the time. Without one, 15%. Source: Pew Research Center, 900 US adults, March 2025 @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
9. WHY NOW? THE SQUEEZE @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
10. THE REALITY @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
11. THE EVOLUTION OF CONSUMER JOURNEYS GOOGLE FRAMEWORK BCG RESEARCH THE "MESSY MIDDLE" THE "4S BEHAVIORS" Endless loop of Exploration & Evaluation 1. Streaming • 2. Scrolling 3. Searching • 4. Shopping Source: Google "Messy Middle" Study / Boston Consulting Group (BCG) 2025 Framework @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
12. BCG RESEARCH THE LINEAR FUNNEL FORCE-FITS COMPLEX JOURNEYS Overlapping channels across Awareness, Consideration, and Action reveal non-linear customer behavior. Source: BCG analysis @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
13. BCG RESEARCH INFLUENCE MAPS Touchpoints influence multiple stages, giving each customer journey a unique shape. Source: BCG analysis
14. BCG RESEARCH TWO CONSUMER JOURNEYS ILLUSTRATE INFLUENCE MAPS Comparing key touchpoints and degree of influence between two shopper journeys. Source: BCG analysis
15. THIS IS HOW YOU WILL UNLOCK GROWTH @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
16. DIGITALLY MATURE ORGANIZATIONS ACHIEVE +18PTS HIGHER REVENUE GROWTH +29PTS GREATER COST EFFICIENCY Source: Boston Consulting Group (BCG), "The Fast Track to Digital Marketing Maturity" research study. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
17. THE CONSEQUENCE THE PERFORMANCE PLATEAU @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
18. LAST-CLICK ATTRIBUTION CAN OVERESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF CHANNELS LIKE PAID SEARCH BY AS MUCH AS 190% SOURCE: WARC. (2025). The Multiplier Effect: A CMO’s guide to brand building in the performance era. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
19. MORE EFFICIENT. LESS EFFECTIVE. +4% −11% MEDIA ROI INCREMENTAL PROFIT Source: IPA Databank, median 2022–24 vs 2018–20 (Go Big or Go Home, IPA 2025) @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
20. SEARCH DOESN’T CREATE SEARCH DEMAND 30% of paid search clicks are directly generated by other marketing channels SOURCE: WARC. (2025). The Multiplier Effect: A CMO’s guide to brand building in the performance era. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
21. BUILD THE DEMAND, THEN HARVEST IT WHAT GROWS BRANDS, ON AVERAGE (BINET & FIELD) BRAND BUILDING 60% SALES ACTIVATION 40% WHAT NEARLY HALF OF FIRMS ACTUALLY DO (48%) BRAND 40% OR LESS ACTIVATION 60% OR MORE The right split varies by category. Sources: Binet & Field, Effectiveness in Context (IPA 2018); Medialab CMO Survey 2025 @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
22. HELP YOUR MARKETING TEAMS ADVANCE THEIR MEASUREMENT MODERN MEASUREMENT SOLUTIONS @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
23. FIX IT. AGREE IT. PROVE IT. PROVE IT Incrementality Testing & Causal Analysis AGREE IT Influence Maps of Customer Touchpoints FIX IT Measurement Infrastructure @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
24. STRONG FOUNDATIONS FIX IT • Server-side tagging • Enhanced Conversions • Kill duplicate and broken tags MEASUREMENT AUDIT @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
25. BCG RESEARCH AGREE IT | MAP THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY Agree what you can and can’t track and start to understand the influence weight it has. Source: BCG analysis @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
26. METRICS AGREE IT TOTAL REVENUE ROAS @launchonlineuk @jayecowle ÷ TOTAL MARKETING SPEND = DITCH ROAS It limits growth. MER
27. TIER 3 PROVE IT 1. GEO HOLDOUT Ads on in test regions, off in control regions 2. MEASURE THE TRUE LIFT The difference is what the channel really adds 3. DEVELOP YOUR MMM Google Meridian @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
28. CASE STUDY: ST EVAL TOO EFFICIENT, IN A VACUUM • Heritage candlemaker, 30+ years in North Cornwall • Every Q4: double down on Google Ads • Harvesting the same demand, and the discount hunters Costs up. Margins down. Growth flat. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
29. WE FLIPPED THE SPLIT BEFORE SEARCH 60% SOCIAL 40% AFTER SEARCH 40% SOCIAL 60% And we started a full month before peak season: building demand before the rush. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
30. THE HALO St Eval, against the previous Q4 +490% +125% +537% +306% Q4 REVENUE NEW CUSTOMERS PAID SEARCH REVENUE ORGANIC REVENUE We cut search's share of the budget. Its revenue went up 537%. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
31. YES, WE SPENT MORE SPEND +508% REVENUE +490% £7.5 BACK FOR EVERY EXTRA £1 That's the difference between spending more and growing. @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
32. “INVESTING IN BRAND STORY AND CREATIVE TESTING PAYS DIVIDENDS FAR BEYOND THE INITIAL CLICK.” Neil Fox, Fractional CMO, St Eval @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
33. YOUR MARKETING TEAM NEEDS YOU @launchonlineuk @jayecowle
34. THANK YOU Jaye Cowle Founder & CEO, Launch launchonline.co.uk @launchonlineuk