Moore's Law and Digital Photography

Increasing files sizes for digitally generated photographs places demands on file storage undreamed of a decade ago. Will digital media keep pace? Here is one evaluation.

Transcript

1. Moore’s  Law  and  Digital  Photography   a  presenta6on  to  the  Kiwanis  Club       ©  Ken  Osborn   Misterken  Photography   www.flickr.com/photos/misterken   hCp://misterkenblog.blogspot.com/   September  19,  2011    
2. Where  it  Started   •  Current  photo  storage  of  896  GB   •  With  973  master  event  folders   •  And  a  total  of  133,658  images     •  And  2  TB  of  external  drives  for  backup  storage    
3. The  Ques6ons   •  How  much  storage  will  I  need  in  2  years?   •  How  soon  will  my  hard  drive  be  inadequate?   •  Will  mass  storage  keep  up  with  my  needs?   •  Will  I  be  able  to  afford  my  hobby  in  five  years?   •  Will  Moore’s  Law  save  me???  
4. Beginnings  –  3  MP  Pix  
5. Now  -­‐  125  Mpixel  Pix     Tomorrow?  
6. Raw  Data  Dump   page  1  of  100       •  135992  ./R001209  CRUCIBLE     •  362104  ./R001212  LAB     •  036216  ./R001216  DECKWORK     •  150208  ./R001221  Family  Photos   •  010512  ./R001222  Berkeley  Downtown   •  154752  ./R001226  XMAS2000  FRESNO     •  103328  ./R001229  BERKELEY  MYRUN     •  032064  ./R001229  Old  Town  Sacramento     •  130936  ./R001230  NORMANDY  VILLAGE  SHQ     •  029560  ./R001231  skyshots     •  762736  ./R010106  SD1PICS     •  113088  ./R010114  CLOUDS  MONSTER    
7. Digital  Decisions   y  =  -­‐0.2568x2  +  3922x  -­‐  224345   R²  =  0.18682   -­‐5000000   0   5000000   10000000   15000000   20000000   1208   30115   40327   50728   60923   70826   80718   90822   100802   110309   Folder  Size  vs  Date     Star0ng  December  2000   Folder  Size   Poly.  (Folder  Size)  
8. Moore’s  Law     ref:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
 pp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Ar6cles-­‐Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Ar6cle.pdf  
9. Compound  vs  Simple  Growth   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   Compound  10%   $1,000   $1,100   $1,210   $1,331   $1,464   $1,611   $1,772   $1,949   $2,144   $2,358   $2,594   Simple  10%   $1,000   $1,100   $1,200   $1,300   $1,400   $1,500   $1,600   $1,700   $1,800   $1,900   $2,000   $1,000   $1,200   $1,400   $1,600   $1,800   $2,000   $2,200   $2,400   $2,600   $2,800   Growth  at  10%   Compound  vs  Simple  Growth   Compound  (blue)  =  Exponen0al  –  your  book  collec0on   Simple  (red)  =  Linear  –  your  shelf  space  
10. Compound  Growth   red  =  10%/year  –  your  money  in  the  bank  –  you  wish     green  =  doubles  each  year  –  Na6onal  Debt   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   Compound  10%   $1,000   $1,100   $1,210   $1,331   $1,464   $1,611   $1,772   $1,949   $2,144   $2,358   $2,594   Double/Yr   $1,000   $2,000   $4,000   $8,000   $16,000   $32,000   $64,000   $128,000   $256,000   $512,000  $1,024,000   $1,000   $201,000   $401,000   $601,000   $801,000   $1,001,000   $1,201,000   $1,000   $1,500   $2,000   $2,500   $3,000   Growth  of  Principal   Compound  Growth  Examples  
11. Transform  to  Visualize   red  –  exponen6al   blue  –  log  transformed  to  linearize   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   7.0   $1,000   $201,000   $401,000   $601,000   $801,000   $1,001,000   $1,201,000   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   Log  Transforma0on   Double/Yr   Log(Double/Yr)   Expon.  (Double/Yr)  
12. Digital  Dilemma   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   Folder  Count  by  Year   11   48   42   84   68   84   99   106   101   97   126   160   Mbytes/Folder  by  Year   55   56   64   70   122   456   704   1144   877   1055   1456   1655   0   200   400   600   800   1000   1200   1400   1600   1800   0   20   40   60   80   100   120   140   160   180   A v e   F o l d e r   S i z e   b y   Y e a r   F o l d e r   C o u n t     Annual  Growth  in  Photography  2000-­‐2011  
13. Two  Trends  Blended   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   Cum  Folder  Size  by  Year  (GB)   1   3   3   6   8   38   70   121   89   102   183   265   0   50   100   150   200   250   300   Annual  Growth  Storage  Requirements  2000-­‐2011  
14. Logarithmic  Transforma6on   y  =  0.2317x  +  0.0989   R²  =  0.92655   -­‐0.50   0.00   0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00   2.50   3.00   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   Annualized  Growth  in  Folder  Sizes  (GB)   Log  Cum  Folder  Size  (GB)   Linear  (Log  Cum  Folder  Size  (GB))  
15. Moore’s  Law     ref:  http://en.wikipedia.org  
16. Reality  Check       -­‐0.50   0.00   0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00   2.50   3.00   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   Moore  vs  Digital  Photography   Log  Cum  Folder   Size  (GB)   Linear  (Log  Cum   Folder  Size  (GB))  
17. Conclusion   •  I’m  probably  ok  for  the  coming  decade