Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

ICU 163 support material

ICU 163 support material

Support material for the Island Climate Update teleconference (ICU 163, forecast period April - May 2014)

Nicolas Fauchereau

April 01, 2014
Tweet

More Decks by Nicolas Fauchereau

Other Decks in Science

Transcript

  1. Island  Climate  Update  163   Forecast  period:   April  –

     June  2014   Teleconference  Thursday    3rd  of  April  2014   (12:30  AM  NZ  Ame)   4/04/14   1  
  2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecAon,  circulaAon  and  SST

     anomalies   last  month  (March  2014)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaAon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaAon  (MJO)  diagnosAcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     4/04/14   2   Outline    
  3. 4/04/14   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40

     %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   Experimental  product  
  4. SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   4/04/14   Datasource  =

     BoM  (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10  
  5. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days

     (3rd  Apr.)  is  0.5    (was  0.36  last  month)   SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   4/04/14   h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   11  
  6. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   4/04/14   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13

      h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml