A given B is true • P(B|A) is conditional probability of observing B given A is true • P(A) and P(B) are probabilities of A and B without conditioning on each other
95% posterior density interval – ROPE [1]: Region of practical equivalence for null hypothesis – Fair coin: [0.45,0.55] • 95% HDI: (0.33, 0.47) • Cannot reject null • More samples→ we can [1] Kruschke, John. Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan. Academic Press, 2014.
of marginal likelihoods • Interpretation table by Kass & Raftery [1] • >100 → decisive evidence against M2 [1] Kass, Robert E., and Adrian E. Raftery. "Bayes factors." Journal of the american statistical association 90.430 (1995): 773-795.