2002: Creating the New Public Network (IPIPU)

From the SPIF/Nokia conference.

Transcript

1. 1 Creating The New Public Network The Institute for the Promotion of the Internet Protocol Utility www.ipipu.org Tom Lyon
2. 2 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
3. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 3 Network Industries  Transportation  Roads, Rails, Airlines, …  Utilities  Water, Gas, Electric, …  Communications  Postal System, Telegrams, Telephone, Internet, …
4. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 4 Public Networks  Cost of the network is very high  Marginal cost of the traffic is very low  The product is a pure commodity  Coverage/Universality benefits all  Unforeseen benefits for new industries  Public Networks == Utility  Usually highly regulated
5. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 5 Utilities  Utility networks are funded by their users; often with subsidies to “share the pain”  Competition (for users) is very rare  Interconnection eases costs and increases capacity  Users can become providers – water, electricity, mail rooms, …
6. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 6 Parasitic Networks  Some networks live on other networks  Enhanced way to deliver old service  Dependent on interconnection with old network  Mobile voice on fixed voice  Internet on fixed network?  Mobile Internet on what??
7. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 7 The Old Telco Network  Bell System  National P.T.T.s  Highly regulated:  “Universal” (voice) Service  Common Carriage  No bundled services  “One Bell System – It Works”
8. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 8 The New Telco Network  Competitive in long-haul  Unbundling of local loop – failed  De-regulation = regulatory mess  Market share battles; little growth in voice  Competition seeks efficiency, but requires instability
9. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 9 Data Networks  Old:  The postal system is a data network  Written language vs. voice  Person -> Computer (timesharing)  New:  Computer – Computer (LAN)  Server – Server (Web Services)  Telematics  Silicon wants to be connected!
10. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 10
11. 11 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
12. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 12 IP History  1972: Kahn proposes ‘Internetting’  1977: 16 network numbers  1978: Cerf proposes ‘Catenet’ model  1981: IPv4: RFC 791, 43 networks assigned  1983: ARPANET transition to IP & TCP  1995: Windows 95 released with TCP/IP  Today: 200M hosts, 700M users
13. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 13
14. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 14 The Catenet Model  Concatenated networks: The right way to build a network is to assume everything you connect to is also a network  Your part of the network has a boundary, but the network doesn’t  Do utility networks care about “terminals”?
15. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 15 Ethernet History  1973: Metcalfe et al – 2.94Mb  1980: DEC, Intel, Xerox Blue Book 10Mb  1983: IEEE 802.3  1990: 10Base-T  1995: 100Mbps  1998: Gigabit  2002: 10G Ethernet
16. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 16 Router History  70s: unique proxy code for each network pair  Early 80s: IP forwarding in UNIX  Late 80s: Cisco & router “appliances”  Early 90s: real router hardware  Late 90s: routing ASICs, performance explosion
17. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 17 Switch History  70s: “Ethernet – A Distributed Switch”  Early 80s: LANs take off  Mid 80s: Bridging between LANs  Late 80s: 10Base-T & hubs  1990: Kalpana EtherSwitch  Mid 90s: ASICs + performance explosion  Late 90s: “Layer 3” switches
18. 18 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
19. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 19 The Ideal Network  High bandwidth  Low latency  No loss, no re-ordering  Secure  QoS
20. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 20 IP as Network  High bandwidth?  Low latency?  Loss, re-ordering?  Secure?  QoS?  Extremely variable  Extremely variable  No guarantees  No!  For What?
21. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 21 The Ideal Application  Variable bandwidth  Latency tolerant  Loss, ordering tolerant  Secure  QoS tolerant  The Internet is breeding ideal applications
22. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 22 IP as Network  IP started for inter-networking  Assumes little from underlying network, extends anywhere  As IP dominates, L2 networks commoditize  IP becomes the network, L2 becomes links  L2 convergence  Broadcast -> Ethernet  Point-to-Point -> PPP  NBMA/Clouds -> Gone!
23. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 23 The Zen of IP  IP assumes very little of underlying networks  IP doesn’t get in the way of new applications  Telnet -> Email -> Web -> Napster -> ???  Applications assume very little from IP  By not assuming reliability, it comes!
24. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 24 Scaling IP Inter-planetary IP – Cerf Global IP - Internet  Original IP – Inter-network Native IP networks System Area IP - SANs In-System IP – Blade servers On-Board IP - ? On-Chip IP - VMware
25. 25 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
26. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 26 Metcalfe’s Law  The value of a network grows as the square of the number of users  M N = cU N 2
27. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 27 Too Many Networks  There are way too many disjoint IP networks in the world, driven by:  Administrative concerns  Security concerns  Lack of public address space  Lack of vision  IP without the ‘I’
28. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 28 The Dying LAN  Everyone on the LAN wants Internet access  Remote and Mobile users use Internet VPNs  Servers are moving to IDCs  Firewalls, routers, switches are being managed by MSPs  802.11 WLANs aren’t used as LANs  M LAN << M Internet
29. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 29 The Big Networks  PSTN > 1 billion lines  Cellular > 1 billion users  Internet: 200M hosts, 700M users  But, Internet easily extends over PSTN  Soon to extend over cellular?
30. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 30 The Coming Avalanche  As many new cell users this year as total Internet users  Cell phones becoming “Internet” capable  DoCoMo I-mode: 0 to 30M users in 3 yrs, world’s 2nd largest “ISP” – but no IP!  GPRS and 3G require IP to handset  Not enough IP addresses for all this; Mobile-IP doubles it!
31. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 31 The V6 Internet  IPv6 is deployable now, but is classic chicken & egg problem  Mobile/3G will push IPv6 over the edge  V6 Internet is easy if you have V4  V6 Internet is easier if you don’t  V6 covers V4 like V4 covers PSTN  Metcalfe’s Law means V6 will win
32. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 32 IP vs. Internet  Everyone believes in IP now, even if they don’t know what it is  Carriers view the Internet as a source of technology or users, not as their principal service  They build non-IP or private IP nets and avoid the Internet  But the Internet is just the interconnection of carriers’ own networks!
33. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 33 Internet Avoidance Syndrome 1. Assume the Internet is unmanageable chaos 2. Go build a separate network 3. Discover that users, traffic, and applications are still defined by the Internet! 4. Repeat until bankrupt
34. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 34 Embracing the Internet 1. Assume the Internet is the network 2. Build Internet centric apps & services 3. When required, engineer critical paths a. Get SLAs from ISP, - or - b. Build your own piece of the Internet with the SLAs you need 4. Use the Internet, or Be the Internet!
35. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 35 Game Over?  IP enabled the Internet  IP is a valuable technology, but the Internet is what really matters  The Internet drives IP everywhere  Peering, i.e. inter-networking, is fundamental to the Internet  So the Internet is the answer! Right?
36. 36 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
37. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 37 BellHeads vs. NetHeads  My Network  My Users  My Services  IP is a service  Peering/Roaming at a cost  Regulated Assets  Change is Bad  Well funded?  Proven business models?  One Internet  Any Users  Any Services  IP is a transport  Peering/Roaming assumed  Assets?  Change is Good  Boom and bust funding  “Searching…”
38. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 38 What is the Mobile Internet?  BellHeads: My Mobile Network (with a gateway to the Internet) .  NetHeads: The Internet (with a few antennas).  Reality: Nobody knows, but it won’t be simple or homogeneous. © 2001 The New Yorker Collection from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.
39. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 39 The Carrier Problem  Fixed voice network has matured  Mobile voice network is maturing  How to grow revenue as # users slows?  Lots of demand for data, but no good revenue models.
40. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 40 The Rational Approach  Fight like hell for market share  Lock-in customers to reduce churn  Drive ARPUs with lots of stupid little services  Reduce costs
41. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 41 Control vs. Chaos  Growth comes from innovation  Control squashes innovation  Mobile carriers control network, terminals, and services to lock-in users and squeeze them for revenue
42. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 42 Voice vs. Data  Voice is maturing, but data networks are still very young – especially in mobility  Don’t raise R/U; raise U  The customer is the microprocessor; R/U is tiny but U is huge!  Silicon wants to be connected!
43. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 43 Mobile Data  WAP, GPRS, 3G efforts all oriented towards keeping user under control of carrier  Emphasis on services which cannot survive in an Internet context  ringtones, SMS, MMS.  Compare to wireless LAN – just packets and radio
44. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 44 The Network Problem  Bandwidth may be cheap, but connectivity is very expensive  Captive users pay for the network through captive services  Peering lets my users go to your services  How can I pay for the network?  Peering lets your users come to my services  How will I bill them?  Examples – Voice, Roaming, SMS
45. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 45
46. 46 The New Public Network Public Networks A Brief History Lesson IP as Network Internet vs. IP Business Models The Way Forward
47. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 47 Is the Internet Regulated?  Backbone – not regulated, but oligopolistic via peering & address allocation requirements - origin in NSFNET spin-offs  Access – there are no Internet access networks!  PSTN  Cable  Cellular  Satellite
48. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 48 Feast and Famine  Without regulation – too many providers, finite demand, commodity services – financial disaster & service disruption  Digital divide – everyone targets top 1% of users or locales, everyone else waits  DSL ISPs, fiber carriers, WLAN ISPs
49. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 49 Ma Bell  PSTN became ubiquitous because of  Licensed Monopolies  Universal Service requirements  Common Carriage  Mandated Interconnects  No bundling of services
50. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 50 Critical Infrastructure  The Internet is becoming critical infrastructure  The base conditions of the Internet were entirely determined by regulation  Pure capitalism won’t produce a stable solution  PSInet, Northpoint, etc. vs. P.G.&E. – are your lights on?  “Where were you when the Internet went out?”
51. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 51 Info Highways?  Information Highway? Real highways are publicly funded, controlled, used  Interconnection is the whole point  Societal benefit is huge  No model for capitalism to work
52. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 52 Redefining the Public Network  Top-Down won’t work  Not politically feasible  Too many technology unknowns  Too many entrenched players
53. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 53 Municipal Networks  Many municipalities are experimenting with new public data networks  Palo Alto, Pittsburgh, Tacoma, …  Different technology focus – fiber vs. wireless vs. metro/copper ethernet  What is the service requirement?  IP & Internet, of course  But what happens to ISPs?
54. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 54 uA Little Problem with IP  IPv4 hasn’t enough room for public addressing  IPv6 directly “addresses” this problem – can easily address every piece of silicon for decades to come  Many simple IPv4 – IPv6 coexistence solutions  V6 over V4 backbones  V4 over V6 access  V6 to V4 translation  ISPs can continue to handle IPv4 as they do today, running over IPv6 in new networks
55. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 55 The Municipal Data Utility  Define IPv6 as the network transport  Technologies compete below IPv6  Services compete above IPv6  Public peering is encouraged  Municipality aggregates users to IPv4 Internet, with v6-v4 translation  New, separate access network (not tel or catv)  Common carriage – connect anyone, anything
56. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 56 MDU – Business Model  To users, just like any other utility  Connection charge + usage charge  “Sender pays” allows full symmetry  MDU-MDU interconnect is easy  MDU-MDU roaming without tears  Usage charge funds access to non-MDU backbones (aggregated)
57. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 57 MDU - Regulatory  Give local monopolies in exchange for common carriage, no other services  “Firing” the provider is easier, since the utility service is not technology dependent  Current carriers could transition to this model, but would be difficult  DSL, Cable, 3G, etc.  MDU as MVNO?
58. May 24, 2002 SPIF/Nokia 58 The New Public Network  The evolution and interconnection of MDUs will lead to the New Public Network  This network is for silicon, not people  Successful networks are service-independent  IPv6 is the crystallizing point for the NPN