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DDD Adelaide - Being Consistently Wrong
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ridget
November 22, 2025
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DDD Adelaide - Being Consistently Wrong
ridget
November 22, 2025
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Transcript
Tom Ridge Sta ff Engineer Culture Amp Father D&D Nerd
Has Attack Eyebrows tom-j-ridge
None
Being consistently wrong
Remote, distributed team Make a performance product Team morale not
great
We’re well behind schedule
12 24 Weeks
We’re stuck in this loop
Large up-front project Horribly over-estimate
Quality issues Not many chances to celebrate & learn Cut
scope hurts product Poor collaboration Hard to respond to urgent requests Over-time
We’re always wrong
“We need to improve our delivery predictability”
Delivery Lead
Pyschological safety Team wants change New(ish) leadership
How do we get out of this?
None
None
Tighter feedback loops Better quality & less risk Deliver value
sooner Stronger collaboration
I still have a big problem to solve
Estimation (Making sh*t up)
We’re bad at it
Estimation is waste
We are optimising for correctness > learning
The start of the project is when we know the
least
The larger the project the worse the estimate is going
to be
Wat? “No matter what estimate you give me as a
Software Engineer, I am going to add 25-50% to it”
Estimation isn’t forecasting
But we do need to be able to communicate when
something is going to be done
How can I deliver on time?
Days remaining = # of stories remaining / (WIP /
avg. cycle time)
None
None
Time for queue to process = size of queue /
how fast the queue moves
Story Time in Progress Time in Review Time in QA
Cycle Time Enable sharing for admins 4 2 1 7 Enable sharing for managers 3 1 2 6
None
“When is it going to be done?”
None
Days remaining = # of stories remaining / (WIP /
avg. cycle time)
None
New small project
Small projects ✅
Large(r) projects..?
None
Size of the queue & how fast the queue moves
Days remaining = # of stories remaining / (WIP /
avg. cycle time)
None
User story mapping
https://jpattonassociates.com/the-new-backlog/
https://www.altexsoft.com/blog/a-complete-guide-to-user-story-mapping-process-tips advantages-and-use-cases-in-product-management/
Shared understanding Outcomes > output Enables collaboration Helps us get
to wrong sooner
Days remaining = # of stories remaining / (WIP /
avg. cycle time)
WIP
Keep WIP low
Cycle Time
Variance
None
Days remaining = # of stories remaining / (WIP /
avg. cycle time + variation)
None
How do we minimize variation?
None
How much capacity we have How work enters the system
How work fl ows through the system
Slicing, Re fi nement, and Backlogs
Ready to go Re fi ned
Less rework Less risk Less time spent in meetings
Slicing
None
Is it 3 days worth of work?
Role Function eg exports Seams eg “and”
Mary & Tom Poppendieck - Lean Software Development “How can
I learn most effectively? The answer is often to have many short learning cycles”
Once we pull it in, we execute quickly
Address bottlenecks
None
None
Swarm
Now we can forecast
None
None
We’re still bad at estimating
Is it 3 5 days worth of work?
We are consistently, frequently wrong
We are consistently, frequently learning
So what happened?
None
Team less stressed Bottlenecks addressed Quality improved Conversations become about
value not dates More experimentation More team celebrations and learning
It’s worked in other teams, too
We’ve created a system that delivers consistent streams of value
when we say we’re going to*
So how can you do this yourself?
Measure Slice Optimise your queue
When doesn’t this work?
None
Recommended resources
Is it done yet? (How about now?) Slicing Heuristics #NoEstimates
Lean software development (an agile toolkit) Spreadsheet Tool
Tom Ridge Sta ff Engineer Culture Amp Father D&D Nerd
Has Attack Eyebrows tom-j-ridge
None