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The 'oil vulnerability'of commuter patterns

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May 20, 2015

The 'oil vulnerability'of commuter patterns

Talk at the University of Leeds for the Institute of Transport Studies (ITS)



May 20, 2015


  1. 1 Dr Ian Philips i.philips@leeds.ac. uk The 'oil vulnerability'of commuter

    patterns: A case study from Yorkshire and the Humber, UK University of Leeds Dr Robin Lovelace R.Lovelace@leeds. ac.uk
  2. 2 2 Overview of the paper Main metrics (focus on

    Cfp) Impact of Low oil prices What next Structure of the paper
  3. 3 3 Lovelace &Philips 2014 Geoforum doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.11.005

  4. 4 4 Paper overview Concepts of ‘commuter oil vulnerability’ are

    considered. •Four quantitative metrics • Case study •Geographically variable & individually variable •Individual circumstances affect vulnerability, •Ultimately, the distribution of oil vulnerability depends on visions of the future.
  5. 5 5 Context

  6. 6 6 Metrics overview From the results of the spatial

    microsimulation model the metrics were as follows: •Economic vulnerability: defined as commuter fuel poverty ( Vcfp ), the proportion of people spending more than 10% of their income on work travel. •Energy based metric 1: proportion of energy use expended on work travel ( Ve ) •Energy based metric 2: proportion of individuals spending more than 10% of their ‘energy budget’—including gas, electricity and travel energy use—on work travel in each area ( Vei ). •Hybrid vulnerability index based on distance to employment centre, dominance of cars and the average energy costs of commute ( Vh ).
  7. 7 7 Impact of low oil prices on relevance of

    paper •Price change over time •Keep it in the ground (COP15???) •Potential geopolitical crises •Rockstrom et al planetary boundaries •Unfashionable metrics have a persuasive function Falling fuel prices in the UK Environment and social justice lower on agenda Peak Oil receeded as an issueAusterity 2.0
  8. 8 Results

  9. Results

  10. 10 Cfp = commuting costs income Continued relevance Income inequality

    increases Cfp Car fuel “subsidy” privileges some groups
  11. 11 11 Further work Potential for impact 11 11 11

    11 11 Problem 1 11 11 Where Next? 11 Links to other indicators
  12. 12 12 Links to other indicators Potential for impact Further

    work? What next?
  13. 13 13 Linking with other metrics example 1: Capacity to

    walk and Cycle
  14. 14 14 Linking with other metrics example 2: Potential for

    cycling based on commuter flow data
  15. 15 15 •Metrics of vulnerability VIPER – regressive impact? CfP

    Potential for impact
  16. 16 16 Questions and comments 16 Dr Ian Philips i.philips@leeds.ac.

    uk Dr Robin Lovelace R.Lovelace@leeds. ac.uk
  17. 17 17 Oil is cheap now so .. •Cheap oil

    now means we can have high oil prices later: •Peak oil has receeded but •Keep it in the ground (COP15???) •Potential geopolitical crises •Rockstrom planetary boundaries