Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle

Baskin Robbins wishes it had as many flavors as there are JS frameworks, build tools, and cool new “low-level” languages. You just want to solve a problem, not have a 500-framework bake-off! And how will you know whether you picked the right one? Don’t flip that table, because we’ll use the “hype cycle” and the history of Ruby and Rails as a guide to help you understand which front-end and back-end technologies are a fit for your needs, wants, and career now and in the future.

Presented at RailsConf, May 5, 2016

Transcript

1. WELCOME TO THE
   NAP TRACK
   
   Please respect the sleep needs of those around you
   

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2. Hello from
   Austin, TX
   the breakfast
   taco capital of
   the universe
   

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3. DOCKERIZING YOUR
   REACT CONTAINER:
   WHY WHAT YOU KNOW IS SOOO 5
   MINUTES AGO
   

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4. SORRY,
   THAT’S OVER.
   

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5. WEBPACKING YOUR
   ELM KUBERNETES:
   WHY WHAT YOU KNOW IS SOOO 11
   SECONDS AGO
   

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6. SO YEAH.
   

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7. Let’s talk about
   mid-life crises.
   

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8. HELLO THERE.
   THIS IS
   MY DAD
   THIS IS HIS
   FANNY PACK
   

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9. BUT THIS IS HIS
   MID-LIFE CRISIS
   THIS IS NOT
   MY DAD
   

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10. The web developer’s
    career is entering an
    endless mid-life crisis.
    

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11. A word of
    comfort
    A word of
    caution
    

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12. YEAH, IT’S GOT
    VIRTUAL DOM
    HEY, COOL JS
    FRAMEWORK
    

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13. BRANDON HAYS
    @tehviking
    “We do chicken right!”
    

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16. I first noticed
    these patterns
    learning Ember.
    

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17. A prediction for those
    trying to stay up on the
    latest web technologies
    

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18. -My prediction?
    PAIN.
    

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19. PAIN POINT 1:
    It’s impossible to keep
    up with new tools.
    

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22. PAIN POINT 1:
    YOU CAN’T KEEP UP
    WITH NEW TOOLS
    Choice Paralysis
    

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23. The Tech Treadmill
    

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24. PAIN POINT 2:
    New stuff can’t live
    up to expectations.
    

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25. OMG
    OMG
    OMG
    

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26. SPOILER ALERT
    IT WAS ALIENS
    

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27. New tech: Week 2
    

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28. PAIN POINT 3:
    The technology you
    love is now obsolete.
    

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29. View Slide

30. View Slide

31. Pour one out for Rails
    

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33. View Slide

34. View Slide

35. Alas, poor
    Tomster,
    we hardly
    knew ye
    

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36. View Slide

37. View Slide

38. WHAT IF I TOLD YOU
    THIS IS ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE
    

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39. The Hype Cycle
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    VISIBILITY
    MATURITY
    

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40. Also, your favorite
    technology didn’t really die
    

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41. WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN?
    PAIN
    
    
    CURRENT TOOLS
    ARE FAILING ME
    OH HEY
    SOMETHING NEW
    

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42. This realization can
    happen instantly.
    

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43. View Slide

44. How it works
    History of Rails
    How to apply it
    The Hype Cycle
    

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45. A Movement in
    5 Medium Thinkpieces
    

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46. TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    Technology
    Trigger
    

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47. Peak of Inflated
    Expectations
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    

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48. Trough of
    Disillusionment
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    

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49. Slope of
    Enlightenment
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    

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50. Plateau of
    Productivity
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    

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51. No one upvotes the
    plateau of productivity.
    

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52. “Hype” is not an insult, it’s an inevitability
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    VISIBILITY
    MATURITY
    

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53. View Slide

54. The “Whoops!” heard
    ‘round the world
    

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55. TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    Technology
    Trigger
    

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56. View Slide

57. Peak of Inflated
    Expectations
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    

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58. View Slide

59. View Slide

60. View Slide

61. View Slide

62. Promise: This will make
    you the 10x developer you
    always hoped you were
    

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63. You are literally
    a Jedi Rockstar
    

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64. (We’ll talk about the
    real promise at the end)
    

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65. ****
    

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66. You’re on a rocket ride to
    the moooooooon!
    

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67. Except then…
    

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68. Trough of
    Disillusionment
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    

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69. View Slide

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71. View Slide

72. Slope of
    Enlightenment
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    

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73. View Slide

74. View Slide

75. View Slide

76. View Slide

77. Plateau of
    Productivity
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    

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78. View Slide

79. MySQL isn’t cool. You
    know what’s cool?
    

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80. View Slide

81. 3 TYPES:
    Pioneers
    Settlers
    Town Planners
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html
    

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82. PIONEERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html
    

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83. SETTLERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html
    

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84. TOWN PLANNERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html
    

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85. View Slide

86. PIONEER
    SETTLER
    

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87. Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive
    

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88. lighthttpd/FastCGI
    Built-in SOAP
    “Email me your gem list”
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive
    

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89. Shopify
    Engine Yard
    Odeo
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive
    

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90. Shopify
    Engine Yard
    Odeo Twitter
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive
    

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91. View Slide

92. 1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In
    

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93. acts_as_everything
    Restful routes
    Bundler
    Passenger
    1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In
    

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94. Thank you,
    Ryan Bates
    

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95. Heroku
    Zendesk
    New Relic
    GitHub
    1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In
    

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96. View Slide

97. 3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over
    

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98. Merb merge & Arel
    SOA
    Rails as API
    3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over
    

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99. Fortune 500 companies
    Basically all of Y Combinator
    Most hacker schools
    3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over
    

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100. QUIZ TIME
     

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101. Which irritates you most?
     1. Being required to use outdated tools
     2. Team members that try to rewrite your
     codebase in the latest “hipster stack”
     3. Anything that gets in the way of shipping
     

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102. Which do you enjoy most?
     1. Accepting a PR for an OSS library
     2. Applying a technology in a way
     that makes the company money
     3. Solving a tricky performance issue
     

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103. Where do you feel most helpful?
     1. Showing someone that there’s a new,
     better way of doing things
     2. Improving someone’s documentation
     3. Automating a tedious deploy process
     

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104. EACH ROLE IS VALUABLE
     Pioneers: Vision/Experiments
     Settlers: Strategy/Synthesis
     Town Planners: Tactics/Execution
     

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105. PIONEERS OR “HIPSTERS”?
     

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106. SETTLERS OR EXPLOITERS?
     

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107. TOWN PLANNERS OR
     “ARCHITECTURE ASTRONAUTS”?
     

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108. Wrong, but
     hilarious
     

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109. Whichever you are, don’t
     beat up on others
     (or yourself) for not
     being the other two
     

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110. Yeah, but how do I apply
     any of this stuff?
     

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111. There are ways to
     win and lose at the
     hype cycle
     

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112. HOW TO LOSE:
     1. Dismiss new stuff, become
     commoditized
     2. Get caught up in the cycle & burn out
     3. Bet and crash with tech that doesn’t
     clear the trough
     

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113. THE TECH TREADMILL
     BUT YOU CAN HACK
     

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114. How to win depends on
     your preferences
     

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115. Remember me?
     PLATEAU OF
     PRODUCTIVITY
     SLOPE OF
     ENLIGHTENMENT
     TROUGH OF
     DISILLUSIONMENT
     TECHNOLOGY
     TRIGGER
     PEAK
     OF INFLATED
     EXPECTATIONS
     VISIBILITY
     MATURITY
     

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116. 2 QUESTIONS:
     What stage is it in?
     Should I concern myself?
     

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117. TECHNOLOGY
     TRIGGER
     Technology
     Trigger
     PIONEERS: Probably.
     SETTLERS: Maybe…
     PLANNERS: No.
     

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118. Peak of Inflated
     Expectations
     PEAK
     OF INFLATED
     EXPECTATIONS
     PIONEERS: Yes!
     SETTLERS: Maybe…
     PLANNERS: No.
     

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119. CAN SURF THIS WAVE
     PIONEERS
     

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120. Trough of
     Disillusionment
     TROUGH OF
     DISILLUSIONMENT
     PIONEERS: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
     SETTLERS: Probably.
     PLANNERS: Maybe…
     

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121. Slope of
     Enlightenment
     SLOPE OF
     ENLIGHTENMENT
     PIONEERS: Nope
     SETTLERS: Yes!
     PLANNERS: Probably.
     

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122. Plateau of
     Productivity
     PLATEAU OF
     PRODUCTIVITY
     PIONEERS: No.
     SETTLERS: Maybe…
     PLANNERS: Yes!
     

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123. THE COMFORT
     

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124. If I don’t switch to Elixir
     and Phoenix, am I going
     to be left behind?
     
     

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125. If I still use the Asset
     Pipeline instead of
     Webpack, am I headed
     for unemployment?
     
     

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127. If I haven’t built a side
     project in Elm, am I
     intellectually lazy?
     
     

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128. Your favorite technology
     isn’t dead.
     
     

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130. No one gets to make
     you feel ashamed of
     liking the stuff you like.
     

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131. IT’S OKAY TO NOT
     LIKE THINGS
     

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132. PLEASE DON’T YUCK
     SOMEONE ELSE’S YUM.
     https://medium.com/@lizzerdrix/being-comfortable-enough-to-talk-15a6eb105ab9
     

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133. But Brandon! If Ruby isn’t
     dead, why do you run a
     JavaScript consultancy?
     

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134. Doesn’t that make you a
     humongous hypocrite?
     

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135. But yeah,
     I’m a hypocrite
     

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136. THE CAUTION
     

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137. There comes a time for you
     to leave the plateau.
     

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138. WHEN TO PIVOT
     

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139. Day job
     (productivity)
     Side project
     (curiosity)
     

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140. Make longer term
     bets, less often
     

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141. Avoid tech that
     targets the peak
     

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142. Align with tech that
     targets the plateau
     

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143. The emotional roller coaster of your
     first production app in a new tech
     PLATEAU OF
     CONTINUOUS
     DELIVERY
     SLOPE OF MASTERY
     TROUGH OF
     “IT SHOULDN’T BE
     THIS TOUGH”
     “EMBER NEW”
     TRIGGER
     PEAK OF
     TUTORIAL-
     DRIVEN
     DEVELOPMENT
     ENTHUSIASM
     PROJECT DURATION
     

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144. So you bet on a tool and
     got to “Hello World”
     

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145. That post-tutorial high tho
     

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146. Re-entering Earth’s gravity
     

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147. The problem isn’t “the peak”,
     it’s “inflated expectations”.
     

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148. 3-week PoC
     6-month slog
     Estimation is hard
     impossible
     

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149. TRUE 10x ENGINEERING
     

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150. The problem: Your boss
     thinks “Proof of Concept”
     means “Production”
     

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151. Yeah… If you could just put
     that into production by
     Saturday, that’d be great
     

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152. The emotional roller coaster of your
     first production app in a new tech
     PLATEAU OF
     CONTINUOUS
     DELIVERY
     SLOPE OF MASTERY
     TROUGH OF
     “IT SHOULDN’T BE
     THIS TOUGH”
     “EMBER NEW”
     TRIGGER
     PEAK OF
     TUTORIAL-
     DRIVEN
     DEVELOPMENT
     ENTHUSIASM
     PROJECT DURATION
     

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153. Why wade through the
     trough of disillusionment?
     

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154. While your boss wasn’t
     looking, everything changed
     

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155. While we swam the
     avalanche,
     everything changed
     

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156. Client-driven UX is a thing
     

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157. At 2.x, Ember is approaching
     the plateau of productivity
     

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158. How did Rails & Ember
     “cross the chasm”?
     

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159. Because while some
     churn in this cycle…
     CIRCLE OF
     ETERNAL
     HOPE
     

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160. View Slide

161. PLATEAU OF
     PRODUCTIVITY
     …things like Rails and Ember
     have always targeted this
     

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162. I used to think the
     promise was to make
     me a 10x developer
     

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163. “Look at all the
     things I’m not doing!”
     

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164. The real promise is
     about helping you
     reach the plateau
     

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165. On the plateau,
     there is time to focus
     

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166. Focus on things
     that add value
     

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167. (BUSINESS VALUE)
     

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168. On the plateau,
     there is time to think
     

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169. Maybe about how
     your boss is an idiot
     

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170. And since you focus
     on business value,
     

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171. You can afford to
     fire your boss.
     

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172. …and then you do
     ****
     

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173. And you turn out OK.
     

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174. But that’s another talk.
     

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175. View Slide

176. Thanks.
     @tehviking
     http://frontside.io
     

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177. IMAGE CREDITS
     Ruby on Rails book collage by Antonio Cangiano http://programmingzen.com/2007/01/05/collage-of-ruby-
     and-rails-books/
     Ox wagon by University of Pretoria Library http://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/8033
     Last Spike at Craigellachie by Wikimedia Commons https://www.wikimedia.org/
     Old map of Austin by Wikimedia Commons https://www.wikimedia.org/
     Meditate by Nadir Hashmi https://www.flickr.com/photos/nadircruise/
     Sandwich by Adam Sherer https://www.flickr.com/photos/arsherer/
     The Weight of Thought by Evan Leeson https://www.flickr.com/photos/ecstaticist/
     The New Fred Meyer on Interstate on Lombard by Lyza https://www.flickr.com/photos/lyza/49545547
     DHH during Dave Thomas' Talk by Jesper Rønn-Jensen https://www.flickr.com/photos/jesper/252308266/
     Main Street Replica by Pioneer Trails Regional Museum http://www.ptrm.org/programs/?program_id=21
     Hipster by Luca Rossato https://www.flickr.com/photos/funky64/16637883503/
     Capitalist Pig by Brandon https://www.flickr.com/photos/darthdowney/3271642232
     

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