The Consolations of Complexity

Learning about complexity has changed the way I think about what I do. It's helped me appreciate why certain ways of working feel more effective and more natural to me. It's helped me act (and not act) more decisively. It's helped me better understand the weird, sometimes irrational world of government. Above all, it's made me feel a whole lot better and more positive about stuff.

First given at SDinGov - 29th September 2022
https://govservicedesign.net/programme/consolations-complexity-or-how-i-learned-stop-worrying-love-chaos

Transcript

1. The Consolations
   of Complexity
   SDinGov — 29th September 2022
   

   View Slide

2. View Slide

3. Tom Morgan
   Lead Designer
   

   View Slide

4. previously… on Tom’s career
   

   View Slide

5. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
   ● a lot of time working on web things
   ● a lot of time advocating for UCD
   ● a lot of time failing to do it
   before 2015
   

   View Slide

6. I started working
   in Government
   2015
   

   View Slide

7. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
   ● sense of purpose
   ● lots of open goals for design
   ● fit my skills & experience
   ● the argument had been won
   

   View Slide

8. Then things started to get hard
   

   View Slide

9. View Slide

10. View Slide

11. View Slide

12. View Slide

13. complicated
    /ˈkɒmplɪkeɪtɪd/
    adjective
    1. consisting of many interconnecting
    parts or elements; intricate.
    "a complicated stereo system"
    complex
    /ˈkɒmplɛks/
    adjective
    1. consisting of many different and
    connected parts.
    "a complex network of water channels"
    

    View Slide

14. Rainforest / Ferrari
    

    View Slide

15. It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and
    the Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated
    machines, but an expert mechanic can take one
    apart and reassemble it without changing a thing.
    The car is static, and the whole is the sum of its
    parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in
    constant flux—a species becomes extinct, weather
    patterns change, an agricultural project reroutes a
    water source—and the whole is far more than the
    sum of its parts. This is the realm of ‘unknown
    unknowns,’ and it is the domain to which much of
    contemporary business has shifted.”
    — Dave Snowden
    “
    

    View Slide

16. The
    Cynefin
    Framework
    

    View Slide

17. kuh-NEV-in
    (WELSH WORDS FTW BTW)
    “habitat”
    “place of your multiple belongings”
    

    View Slide

18. The
    Cynefin
    Framework
    

    View Slide

19. View Slide

20. View Slide

21. View Slide

22. View Slide

23. View Slide

24. How does this
    relate to my
    work?
    

    View Slide

25. problems anyone
    could probably
    solve, admin &
    logistics
    problems I can
    solve using my
    knowledge of
    design, my skills
    and expertise as a
    designer.
    problems I solve with
    user-centred design,
    eg. user research,
    prototypes,
    hypotheses, iteration
    & co-design etc
    JFDI
    

    View Slide

26. View Slide

27. The organisation around
    me was acting as if the
    problem was complicated
    

    View Slide

28. View Slide

29. what is
    complexity?
    

    View Slide

30. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    chaos theory
    

    View Slide

31. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    strange patterns and
    unpredictable behaviour
    

    View Slide

32. complex
    adaptive
    systems
    

    View Slide

33. nonlinear
    dynamics
    

    View Slide

34. cause effect
    

    View Slide

35. cause effect
    

    View Slide

36. cause effect
    

    View Slide

37. cause
    effect
    

    View Slide

38. cause
    effect
    effect
    effect
    effect
    

    View Slide

39. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    everything is
    in constant flux
    

    View Slide

40. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    everything affects
    everything else
    

    View Slide

41. ecosystems
    

    View Slide

42. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    susceptible to
    feedback loops
    

    View Slide

43. stock markets
    

    View Slide

44. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    things are
    unpredictable
    

    View Slide

45. emergence
    

    View Slide

46. View Slide

47. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    there is no central
    control, no leader
    

    View Slide

48. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    whole is more than
    the sum of the parts
    

    View Slide

49. View Slide

50. “The entire mound—insects plus
    structure—is thus a living thing: a
    self-regulating physiological and
    cognitive system, with a sense of its
    own boundaries, a memory, and a
    kind of collective intentionality.”
    

    View Slide

51. emergent
    properties
    complex
    adaptive
    systems
    entangled
    constantly
    changing
    unpredictable
    nonlinear
    feedback
    loops
    self-
    organising
    uncontrollable
    

    View Slide

52. View Slide

53. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    is the design of
    government services
    a complex problem?
    

    View Slide

54. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    is the organisation
    I’m working in
    a complex system?
    

    View Slide

55. government is a
    complex system
    

    View Slide

56. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    ● my place within it
    ● the work I was doing
    ● the effect it would have
    

    View Slide

57. working in a
    complex
    environment
    

    View Slide

58. we expect
    problems to be
    like dragons
    that once slain
    will leave us to
    live happily
    ever after
    

    View Slide

59. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    problems are perennial,
    ever changing and need
    constant attention
    

    View Slide

60. gardening the problem
    

    View Slide

61. we expect
    success to be
    something that
    will happen at
    some point in
    the future
    

    View Slide

62. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    we cannot control the
    future so we must think
    differently about success
    

    View Slide

63. success as balance
    

    View Slide

64. We expect to
    clearly see the
    results of the
    things we do
    

    View Slide

65. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    we might never know the
    effects we’ve caused, but we
    will always have an effect
    

    View Slide

66. a butterfly flaps its wings
    

    View Slide

67. We expect the
    thing that worked
    last time to work
    again this time
    

    View Slide

68. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    the same cause could have
    a different effect, but also
    new opportunities to affect
    things will always arise
    

    View Slide

69. the same river twice
    

    View Slide

70. View Slide

71. “All models are wrong,
    but some are useful.”
    — George Box
    

    View Slide

72. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All user needs are wrong
    but some are useful
    

    View Slide

73. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All personas are wrong
    but some are useful
    

    View Slide

74. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All prototypes are wrong
    but some are useful
    

    View Slide

75. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All maps are wrong
    but some are useful
    

    View Slide

76. useful needs balance
    

    View Slide

77. useful keeps changing
    

    View Slide

78. useful needs
    constant attention
    

    View Slide

79. useful in ways
    you didn’t expect
    

    View Slide

80. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All metaphors are wrong
    but some are useful
    

    View Slide

81. View Slide

82. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    They are undoubtedly wrong but they
    have been useful in enabling me to
    maintain a little bit of that initial
    optimism and resilience in the face of
    the complexity of Government.
    

    View Slide

83. View Slide

84. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    thank you!
    @tsmz
    

    View Slide