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The Consolations of Complexity

Tom Morgan
October 01, 2022

The Consolations of Complexity

Learning about complexity has changed the way I think about what I do. It's helped me appreciate why certain ways of working feel more effective and more natural to me. It's helped me act (and not act) more decisively. It's helped me better understand the weird, sometimes irrational world of government. Above all, it's made me feel a whole lot better and more positive about stuff.

First given at SDinGov - 29th September 2022
https://govservicedesign.net/programme/consolations-complexity-or-how-i-learned-stop-worrying-love-chaos

Tom Morgan

October 01, 2022
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Transcript

  1. The Consolations
    of Complexity
    SDinGov — 29th September 2022

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  3. Tom Morgan
    Lead Designer

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  4. previously… on Tom’s career

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  5. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    ● a lot of time working on web things
    ● a lot of time advocating for UCD
    ● a lot of time failing to do it
    before 2015

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  6. I started working
    in Government
    2015

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  7. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    ● sense of purpose
    ● lots of open goals for design
    ● fit my skills & experience
    ● the argument had been won

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  8. Then things started to get hard

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  13. complicated
    /ˈkɒmplɪkeɪtɪd/
    adjective
    1. consisting of many interconnecting
    parts or elements; intricate.
    "a complicated stereo system"
    complex
    /ˈkɒmplɛks/
    adjective
    1. consisting of many different and
    connected parts.
    "a complex network of water channels"

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  14. Rainforest / Ferrari

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  15. It’s like the difference between, say, a Ferrari and
    the Brazilian rainforest. Ferraris are complicated
    machines, but an expert mechanic can take one
    apart and reassemble it without changing a thing.
    The car is static, and the whole is the sum of its
    parts. The rainforest, on the other hand, is in
    constant flux—a species becomes extinct, weather
    patterns change, an agricultural project reroutes a
    water source—and the whole is far more than the
    sum of its parts. This is the realm of ‘unknown
    unknowns,’ and it is the domain to which much of
    contemporary business has shifted.”
    — Dave Snowden

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  16. The
    Cynefin
    Framework

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  17. kuh-NEV-in
    (WELSH WORDS FTW BTW)
    “habitat”
    “place of your multiple belongings”

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  18. The
    Cynefin
    Framework

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  24. How does this
    relate to my
    work?

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  25. problems anyone
    could probably
    solve, admin &
    logistics
    problems I can
    solve using my
    knowledge of
    design, my skills
    and expertise as a
    designer.
    problems I solve with
    user-centred design,
    eg. user research,
    prototypes,
    hypotheses, iteration
    & co-design etc
    JFDI

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  27. The organisation around
    me was acting as if the
    problem was complicated

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  29. what is
    complexity?

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  30. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    chaos theory

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  31. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    strange patterns and
    unpredictable behaviour

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  32. complex
    adaptive
    systems

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  33. nonlinear
    dynamics

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  34. cause effect

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  35. cause effect

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  36. cause effect

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  37. cause
    effect

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  38. cause
    effect
    effect
    effect
    effect

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  39. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    everything is
    in constant flux

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  40. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    everything affects
    everything else

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  41. ecosystems

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  42. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    susceptible to
    feedback loops

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  43. stock markets

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  44. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    things are
    unpredictable

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  45. emergence

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  47. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    there is no central
    control, no leader

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  48. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    whole is more than
    the sum of the parts

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  50. “The entire mound—insects plus
    structure—is thus a living thing: a
    self-regulating physiological and
    cognitive system, with a sense of its
    own boundaries, a memory, and a
    kind of collective intentionality.”

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  51. emergent
    properties
    complex
    adaptive
    systems
    entangled
    constantly
    changing
    unpredictable
    nonlinear
    feedback
    loops
    self-
    organising
    uncontrollable

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  53. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    is the design of
    government services
    a complex problem?

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  54. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    is the organisation
    I’m working in
    a complex system?

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  55. government is a
    complex system

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  56. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    ● my place within it
    ● the work I was doing
    ● the effect it would have

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  57. working in a
    complex
    environment

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  58. we expect
    problems to be
    like dragons
    that once slain
    will leave us to
    live happily
    ever after

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  59. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    problems are perennial,
    ever changing and need
    constant attention

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  60. gardening the problem

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  61. we expect
    success to be
    something that
    will happen at
    some point in
    the future

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  62. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    we cannot control the
    future so we must think
    differently about success

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  63. success as balance

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  64. We expect to
    clearly see the
    results of the
    things we do

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  65. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    we might never know the
    effects we’ve caused, but we
    will always have an effect

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  66. a butterfly flaps its wings

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  67. We expect the
    thing that worked
    last time to work
    again this time

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  68. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    the same cause could have
    a different effect, but also
    new opportunities to affect
    things will always arise

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  69. the same river twice

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  71. “All models are wrong,
    but some are useful.”
    — George Box

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  72. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All user needs are wrong
    but some are useful

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  73. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All personas are wrong
    but some are useful

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  74. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All prototypes are wrong
    but some are useful

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  75. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All maps are wrong
    but some are useful

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  76. useful needs balance

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  77. useful keeps changing

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  78. useful needs
    constant attention

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  79. useful in ways
    you didn’t expect

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  80. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    All metaphors are wrong
    but some are useful

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  82. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    They are undoubtedly wrong but they
    have been useful in enabling me to
    maintain a little bit of that initial
    optimism and resilience in the face of
    the complexity of Government.

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  84. the consolations of complexity @tsmz
    thank you!
    @tsmz

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