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20191112 10xのための逆説 #pmconfjp 2019

10xinc
November 12, 2019

20191112 10xのための逆説 #pmconfjp 2019

アジェンダ

1. 自己紹介
2. 10xの解釈
3. 10xのための「定説に対する逆説」
4. 結論
5. 事前募集したQ&A
6. 会場Q&A

10xinc

November 12, 2019
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Transcript

  1. YͷͨΊͷٯઆ
    ໼ຊਅৎc:BNPUUZ !ZBNPUUZ

    1SPEVDU.BOBHFS$POGFSFODF

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  2. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ΞδΣϯμ

    ࣗݾ঺հ
    Yͷղऍ
    YͷͨΊͷʮఆઆʹର͢Δٯઆʯ
    ݁࿦
    ࣄલืूͨ͠2"
    ձ৔2"

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  3. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ࣗݾ঺հ

    ໼ຊਅৎc:BNPUUZ
    גࣜձࣾ9୅දऔక໾
    Yʢඇ࿈ଓతͳՁ஋ʣͷࣾձ࣮૷Λ໨ࢦ͢ձࣾΛ
    ೥݄ʹ૑ۀɻλϕϦʔΛఏڙɻ

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  4. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    Yͷݸਓతͳղऍ

    ಛఆͷਓ෺ͷɺಛఆͷγʔϯͷɺॏཁͳΠγϡʔΛղܾ͢Δ
    Πγϡʔ͕ൃੜ͍ͯ͠Δߏ଄Λʮ࢓૊ΈʯͰม͑Δ
    ୭΋͕৮ΕΔ৔ॴ΁ϓϩμΫτΛஔ͘

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  5. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ࣄલʹ5XJUUFSʹ࣭ͯ໰Λืूͨ͠ʢ/ʣɻ͢Δͱؔ৺ͷଟ
    ͕͘ʮ࣮ମݧΛڭ͑ͯ΄͍͠ʯͱ͍͏΋ͷͱʮҰൠͷղऍͱͷ
    ࠩҟΛ஌Γ͍ͨʯͱ͍͏΋ͷͩͬͨɻ
    YΛඪᒗ͠ɺϓϩμΫτΛத৺ʹਾ͑ͨاۀܦӦΛ௨͡Δத
    Ͱײͨ͡ʮੈͷதͰݴΘΕ͍ͯΔఆઆͱݱ৔Ͱͷٯઆʯʹ͍ͭ
    ͯճ౴͍͖͍ͯͨ͠ͱࢥ͍·͢ɻ
    ຊ೔ͷςʔϚఆઆʹର͢Δٯઆ

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  6. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ఆઆ

    ʮૉૣ͍վળʯ͕Ͱ͖ΔϦʔϯɾΞδϟΠϧͳ
    ૊৫͕ྑ͍

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  7. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ٯઆ

    Ϧʔϯͳ૊৫ͷਅͷՁ஋͸ʮ୳ࡧྗʯ
    ੒Ռ΁ͷӨڹ౓Ͱ࠷΋େ͖͍ͷ͸ຆͲͷ৔߹ɺϓϩμΫτઃܭྗɻͦͷͨΊͷ୳ࡧྗ΍ؾͮ͘
    ྗɻϢʔεέʔεͷਊΛ৯Θͳ͍ݶΓɺվળͰͳʹ͔ૉ੖Β͍͠΋ͷ͕ੜ·ΕΔ͜ͱ͸كʢ֎
    ෦ཁҼʹґଘ͕େ͖͘ͳΔʣɻ
    Ϧʔϯ͸ʮίετΛ཈͑ͯਊΛ୳͢ʯखஈɻ9ࣾͷ৔߹͸ʮ୳ࡧखஈͱͯ͠ϦʔϯʹϓϩμΫ
    τΛ૑Δʯͱ͍͏ख๏Λ׆༻͍ͯ͠Δɻ·ͨτϥϯβΫγϣϯ͕ෳࡶͳۚ༥ɾখചͷྖҬͳ
    ͲɺॳظʹϦʔϯվળ͕ਖ਼ղͱ͸ͳΓ͑ͳ͍ݱ৔͸ແ਺ʹ͋Δɻ

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  8. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ఆઆ

    UP$ٸ଎ͳ੒௕
    UP#ੵΈ্͛ࣜͰͷ੒௕

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  9. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ٯઆ

    UP$PS#͸΄ͱΜͲؔ܎ͳ͍
    ͋ΔظؒͰͷ੒௕଎౓͸ɺͦͷظؒͰେ͖ͳϑϦΫγϣϯ͕ղܾͰ͖Δ͔Ͳ͏͔ʹґଘ͢Δɻ
    ฏ੒Λ୅ද͢ΔϝϧΧϦ΍-*/&ͷྫͰ͸ɺ࠷େͷϑϦΫγϣϯϙΠϯτ͕Ϣʔβʔͷ਺Ͱ͋
    ΓɺͦΕ͸ࢿۚͰҰఆղܾͰ͖ͨɻ
    #޲͚ʹ͓͚ΔϑϦΫγϣϯϙΠϯτ͸ɺඇੜ࢈తγεςϜɺෳࡶͳΦϖϨʔγϣϯɺΨόφϯ
    εɺͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕ଟ͍ɻ͜ͷͭΛղܾͨ͠ϓϩμΫτʹ͍ͭͯɺٸ଎ͳ੒௕ࣄྫ͕ੜ·Ε࢝Ί
    ͍ͯΔɻ%JHJUBM5SBOTGPSNBUJPO %9

    ੈքͷ%9ࣄྫͷ൒෼͸ελʔτΞοϓɻ

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  10. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ఆઆ

    ਓ͕ཉ͕͠Δ΋ͷΛͭ͘Ε

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  11. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ٯઆ

    γʔϯͰඞͣ࢖ΘΕΔϞϊΛ࡞Ε
    ࣮ࡏ͢ΔਓͷͨΊʹɺͱ͍͏ͷ͸େલఏɻۃΊͯ۩ମతͳγʔϯͱίϯςΩετʹରͯ͠ͲΕ
    ͚ͩద੾ͳϓϩμΫτͰ͋Δ͔ͷ΄͏͕ͣͬͱॏཁɻ
    ϖϧιφͱ͍͏֓೦͸޿ࠂ$%͕ੜΈग़ͨ֓͠೦ɻ୭͕͍ͭͲ͜Ͱɺͱ͍͏৘ใ͕ᐆດɻ
    ʮ౎৺ʷڞಇ͖ʷࢠҭͯੈଳϫʔϚϚʯͱ͍͏ϖϧιφΛ͓͍ͯͭͬͨ͘λϕϦʔ͸ࣅͨΑ͏
    ͳਓͰ΋ࢗ͞Δਓͱࢗ͞Βͳ͍ਓׂ͕Εͨɻಉ͡ʮྉཧʯͰ΋ɺγʔϯʹΑͬͯҙࢥܾఆ΍Ϗ
    ϔΠϏΞ͸มԽ͢ΔɻγʔϯͷྠֲΛଊ͑Δ΂͖ɻ

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  12. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ఆઆ

    PdM͸XXX͸Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͕͍͍
    FYΤϯδχΞϦϯάɺσβΠϯɺσʔλ෼ੳʜFUD

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  13. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ٯઆ

    Ͱ͖ͨ΄͏͏͕͍͍ͷ͸౰ͨΓલ͕ͩɺඞਢͰ
    ͸ͳ͍ɻʮߴ͍εΩϧʯ΍ʮεΩϧΛ൑ఆͰ͖
    ΔεΩϧʯΛ"/%Ͱෳ਺࣋ͭɻ
    1E.ͷ੹຿͕ϓϩμΫτͷ੒ޭͰ͋Δͱ͢Δͱɺ999Ͱఆٛ͞ΕΔΑ͏ͳ࣮૷εΩϧͱ͸શ͘
    ҧ͏࣍ݩͰ੒൱͕෼͔ΕΔ͔ͱࢥ͏ɻ

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  14. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ఆઆ

    άϩʔεϋοΫ͸ख਺͕ॏཁ

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  15. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ٯઆ

    ख਺ΑΓҐஔ͕ॏཁ
    ͳʹΑΓάϩʔεϋοΫ͕ඞཁͳϓϩμΫτ͸
    ۃΊͯগͳ͍
    ʮ୭΋͕௨ա͢Δ৔ॴʯ͔ʮ࠷΋ॏཁͳίϯόʔδϣϯͷ௚લʯҎ֎ͷࢼߦࡨޡ͸ຆͲ͕ె࿑ɻ
    ͦͯ͠ԿΑΓɺάϩʔεϋοΫ͢ΔΑΓ΋τϥΫγϣϯ͕ੜ·ΕΔͨΊͷάϥϯυσβΠϯͷ
    ΄͏͕ͣͬͱ਺஋ʹγϏΞʹޮ͍ͯ͘ΔɻτϥΫγϣϯ͕ͳ͍΋ͷΛάοϩʔεϋοΫͰڊେ
    αʔϏεʹ੒௕ͤͨ͞ࣄྫ͸ͳ͍ɻ

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  16. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    Կ͕ݴ͍͍͔ͨ

    ݖҖతͳࣄྫ͔Βಋ͔Εͨఆઆ͸ࣗ਎ͷϓϩμ
    Ϋτͷ੒ޭͱ΄΅ແؔ܎

    ʮ/FUqJYͷ"#5FTU݁Ռʯʮ"JSCOCͷػցֶशద༻ࣄྫʯͳͲɺҰݟࢀߟʹͰ͖ͦ͏ͳʮݖҖత
    ͳࣄྫʯ͸ແ਺ʹଘࡏ͠ɺ͔ͦ͜Βଟ͘ͷఆઆ͕ಋ͔Ε͍ͯΔɻ͜͏͍ͬͨࣄྫΛҰ௨ΓΛࢼ
    ͠΋΄ͱΜͲࣄۀΛલʹ͢͢ΊΔ݁Ռ͸ಋ͚ͳ͔ͬͨɻ6ODPODFOTVTSJHIUΛࣗΒ୳͔͢͠ͳ
    ͍ɻ

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  17. ࣄલืूͨ͠2"

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  18. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    2ఆٛ

    ϓϩμΫτͱ͸ʁ1.'ͱ͸ʁϕϯνϚʔΫͱ
    ͸ʁͲ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ
    w 1.'͸Ͳ͏ఆٛ͞Ε͍ͯ·͔͢ʁ
    w ϕϯνϚʔΫΛબͿج४
    w ϓϩμΫτͷఆٛͱ͸ʁϓϩμΫτͷ෼ྨํ๏ɺ؅ཧํ๏

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  19. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ϓϩμΫτ ސ٬͕৮ΕΔ΋ͷ
    1E. ઓུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞ΔܦӦऀ
    1.' σϑΥϧτͰੜ͖͍ͯΔঢ়ଶ
    ϕϯνϚʔΫ ಉ͡γʔϯΛଊ͑ͨαʔϏε
    "ఆٛ

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  20. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    1E.ʹඞཁͳࢿ࣭ͱ͸ͳΜͰ͔͢ʁ
    w ͜Ε͸࣋ͬͯͯ΄͍͍ͬͯ͠͏εΩϧΛͭॱʹ͍͋͛ͯͩ͘͞
    w ϓϩμΫτͱͯ͠࠷ॳ͔Β׬੒ਤ͕͋Δͱ͖ʹɺϦʔϯɾ.71ͱݴΘΕΔλΠϛϯάͰϢʔβʔͷϖΠϯɾχʔζΛਂງ
    Γͯ͠ίΞϢʔβʔΛ͖ͬͪΓ௫Έ੾ΔɾϢʔβʔڭҭΛ͢Δͱ͍͏෦෼ͱɺ ਺ࣈΛݟͳ͕Β͸લఏͰ
    ΑΓଟ͘ͷ఺Λղ
    ܾͯ͠ઢʹͳΔͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ͳଟػೳԽ͍ͯ͘͠෦෼͸Ͳ͏΍ͬͯόϥϯεײΛͱ͍ͬͯ·͔͢ɻ΋͘͠͸ఆྔ஋ͩͬͨΒ
    ԿΛࢀߟʹ൑அ͠·͔͢ɻλϕϦʔͩͱݙཱ࡞੒ˠ࣮ࡍʹ·ͱΊͯωοτεʔύʔͰߪೖͰ͖Δͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ʹͳΓ·͠
    ͕ͨɺͦͷؒͷҙࢥܾఆͷͱ͖ʹԿΛߟ͍͑ͯͨͷ͔஌Γ͍ͨͰ͢ɻ
    w ͿͬͪΌ͚ΤϯδχΞܦݧͷͳ͍1E.ͬͯͲ͏Ͱ͔͢ʁ
    w ϓϩμΫτͮ͘Γʹ͸ɺzؾ͖ͮz͕ॏཁͱ͓ͬ͠Ό͍ͬͯ·͕ͨ͠ɺzؾ͖ͮྗzΛ৳͹͢ʹ͸Ͳ͏͍͏͜ͱΛ΍Ε͹͍͍͔
    ͱ͍͏͜ͱΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞
    w ૑ۀ࣌ʹੴ઒͞ΜͱͳΒճʹճ͸ϗʔϜϥϯΛૂ͑Δɺͱ͍͏࿩ΛΩϟϦΞϋοΫͷهࣄͰ͞Ε͍ͯͨͱࢥ͍·͕͢ɺݱ
    ঢ়ֶशͰ͖ͨԾઆͷதͰɺϗʔϜϥϯΛଧͭͨΊʹඞཁͩͱײ͍ͯ͡Δ͜ͱΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞
    w δϡχΞͷ1E.Λ࠾༻͢Δͱ͖ʹɺॏࢹ͢ΔϙΠϯτΛڭ͍͖͍͑ͯͨͩͨͰ͢ɻ
    2ࢿ࣭

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  21. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ֮ޛɾϏδϣϯ
    ֶशྗ
    ฌ᜾ྗ
    ͲΕ΋ఆٛ͞ΕͨΘ͔Γ΍͍͢εΩϧͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ"/%Ͱ֫ಘ͍͚ͯ͠ΔΞχϚϧɻ
    "ࢿ࣭

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  22. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    2ىۀՈͱͷҧ͍

    1E.ͱىۀՈͷҧ͍͸ͳΜͰ͔͢ʁ
    w 1E.͔ΒىۀՈʹͳͬͨࡍʹͿͪ౰ͨͬͨนΛڭ͍͑ͯͩ͘͞ʢ͍ͪ1E.ͱىۀՈͷؒʹͲΜͳน͕͋Δͷ͔஌Γ͍ͨͰ
    ͢ʣ
    w 1E.ͱ$&0ͷϚΠϯυͷҰ൪ͷҧ͍͸Կͩͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ

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  23. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ݸਓతʹࠩ͸ͳ͍ɺλΠτϧ͘Β͍Ͱ͸
    ҙࢤͷ௿͍ਓ͸ىۀՈʹͳΕͳ͍Α͏ʹɺ1E.ͱ͍͏৬ۀ͸ͦ΋ͦ΋Ͱ͖ͳ͍ͷͰ͸ɻ
    "ىۀՈͱͷҧ͍

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  24. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ૊৫ɾνʔϜΛ࡞Δ্Ͱେ੾ʹ͍ͯ͠Δߟ͑ํ
    ͸ԿͰ͔͢ʁ
    2νʔϜϏϧσΟϯά

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  25. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ
    ૑ۀऀͱܦӦऀͱגओͱैۀһʹͱͬͯ
    w Ϣʔβʔͷ੒ޭɺͱ͍͏ΰʔϧ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ
    w ΰʔϧୡ੒ʹ൐͏ΠϯηϯςΟϒ͕ετϨʔτͰ͋Δ͜ͱ
    w ϓϩηε΍ҙࢥܾఆͷഎܠ͕ετϨʔτʹ఻Θ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱ
    w ୭΋ʹ৘ใ͕ΦʔϓϯͰ͋Δ͜ͱ
    "νʔϜϏϧσΟϯά

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  26. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ίΞϢʔβʔͷମݧΛߏங͢Δ෦෼ͱଟػೳԽ
    ΍ച্ͷόϥϯεΛͲ͏ͱΔ͔ʁ
    w ϓϩμΫτͱͯ͠࠷ॳ͔Β׬੒ਤ͕͋Δͱ͖ʹɺϦʔϯɾ.71ͱݴΘΕΔλΠϛϯάͰϢʔβʔͷϖΠϯɾχʔζΛਂງ
    Γͯ͠ίΞϢʔβʔΛ͖ͬͪΓ௫Έ੾ΔɾϢʔβʔڭҭΛ͢Δͱ͍͏෦෼ͱɺ ਺ࣈΛݟͳ͕Β͸લఏͰ
    ΑΓଟ͘ͷ఺Λղ
    ܾͯ͠ઢʹͳΔͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ͳଟػೳԽ͍ͯ͘͠෦෼͸Ͳ͏΍ͬͯόϥϯεײΛͱ͍ͬͯ·͔͢ɻ΋͘͠͸ఆྔ஋ͩͬͨΒ
    ԿΛࢀߟʹ൑அ͠·͔͢ɻλϕϦʔͩͱݙཱ࡞੒ˠ࣮ࡍʹ·ͱΊͯωοτεʔύʔͰߪೖͰ͖Δͱ͍ͬͨΑ͏ʹͳΓ·͠
    ͕ͨɺͦͷؒͷҙࢥܾఆͷͱ͖ʹԿΛߟ͍͑ͯͨͷ͔஌Γ͍ͨͰ͢ɻ
    w ϓϩμΫτΛຏ͍͍ͯ͘۩ମతखॱΛ࣮ମݧΛݩʹฉ͖͍ͨͰ͢ʂฐࣾͷ৔߹ɺ$UP$αʔϏεΛ೥લʹϦϦʔε͔ͯ͠Β
    ᶃ୅ද͕ੜΈग़͍ͨ͠ੈք؍΍ԾઆΛ΋ͱʹϓϩμΫτ࡞੒ᶄϢʔβʔ͔Βͷఆੑతͳ੠Λ΋ͱʹࡉ͔͍ௐ੔ͨ͠ΓػೳΛ
    վળͨ͠Γᶅఆྔతͳ਺ࣈΛΈͯࡉ͔͍ඍௐ੔ɹͱݴ͏खॱͰϓϩμΫτվળΛ͖ͯͨ͠ͷͰ͕͢ɺᶄͷͱ͖ͱᶅͷͱ͖ͷ
    ఆྔͱఆੑ΍ച্ΰʔϧͳͷ͔Ϣʔβʔମݧΰʔϧͳͷ͔ɺͲͬͪΛͲͷ͘Β͍༏ઌܾͯ͠ఆ͍ͯ͘͠ͷ͔౳۩ମతͳܾఆ
    ͷ࢓ํʹڵຯ͕͋Γ·͢ɻ
    2όϥϯε

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  27. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    ઓུʹґଘ͢Δ
    ػೳͷαΠζɺ਺ɺϚωλΠζϙΠϯτ͸͢΂ͯઓུʹґଘ͢ΔͨΊҰ֓తͳ౴͑͸ͳ͍ɻઓ
    ུͱ࣮૷ΛҰகͤ͞Δ͜ͱ͕ελʔτΞοϓʹ͸ٻΊΒΕΔɻ
    "όϥϯε

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  28. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
    -57͕௿͍ΞϓϦͩͱάϩʔεͤͣ͞Β͍ͳͱ
    ײͯ͡·͕͢ɺ௿$"$ͷάϩʔεઓུ͸Ͳ͏͍
    ͏ύλʔϯ͕͋Δͱࢥ͍·͔͢ʁ
    2ΞϓϦΤίϊϛΫε

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  29. $PQZSJHIU9 *OD"MMSJHIUSFTFSWFE
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