Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data by Tomasa Rodrigo and Álvaro Ortíz at Big Data Spain 2017

Data from the media allows to enrich our analysis and to incorporate these insights into our models to capture nonlinear behaviour and feedback effects of human interaction, assessing their global impact on the society and enabling us to construct fragility indices and early warning systems.

https://www.bigdataspain.org/2017/talk/monitoring-world-geopolitics-through-big-data

Big Data Spain 2017
16th - 17th November Kinépolis Madrid

Transcript

2. November 2017 Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Alvaro Ortiz and Tomasa Rodrigo Big Data Spain 2017
3. Click here to modify the style of the master title Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Summary Introduction: why and how we use Big Data 01 Geopolitical and social analysis 02 The geography and digital transformation 03
4. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data 01 Introduction: why and how we use Big Data
5. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Traditional data could not answer some relevant questions 4 Geopolitical events Political events and social reaction Natural disasters and epidemics … avoiding us to measure their economic impact… … in a world with increasing risks and uncertainty The use of Big Data and Data science techniques allows us to quantify these trends
6. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data New framework in the digital era… 5 Novel data-driven computational approaches are needed to enable the new digital era to exploit the new opportunities where data can be used to study the world in real time from micro to macro level New answers to old questions Better and faster infrastructure New availability of data Higher computational abilities to face more data granularity Combination of historical data with real time data Advanced data science techniques and algorithms
7. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Deepening the statistical and econometric skills to analyze and deal with high- dimensional data Interpreting the results: summarize, describe and analyze the information Developing the data management and programming capabilities to work with large- scale datasets Making the right questions …which needs the development of new competences to take advantage of it New data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions and the tools they use to answer them 6
8. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Our working process 7 GDELT (Global Database on Events, Location and Tone) Clean, Aggregate & transform the data Fuse, visualize & analyze the data BigQuery Data Storage (SQL) Databases SaaS Analysis Visualization
9. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data What is GDELT? 8 … georeferenced across the entire planet… … including over 300 events around the world and more than 30000 themes… …and collecting emotions using some of the most sophisticated algorithms Open database of human society from every corner of the globe dating back to 1979 … Global Database on Events Location and Tone
10. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data GDELT database and sentiment analysis 9 9 The GDELT translingual platform represents the largest real time streaming news machine translation of the world: 99% of its daily non- English volume is translated in real time into English A real time computable record of global society that can be visualized, analyzed, modeled and forecasted It moves towards a global perspective on what’s happening and how the world is feeling about it = − + Global Content Analysis Measures (GCAM) different to capture more than with a value score (WordNet Affect 1.0, WordNet Affect 1.1, WordNet Domains 3.2, WordNet 3.1 Lexical Categories, Subjectivity Lexicon, SentiWords, SentiWordNet 3.0, Lexicoder Sentiment Dictionary, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count,…)
11. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Our products 10 Geographical Analysis Housing Prices (sentiment on Housing Prices) Measuring Sentiments (sentiment Analysis on Economy and Society) Financial Stability & Macroprudential (ECB & FED FS index by FED Board) Monetary & Stability tones by Central Banks Political, Geopolitical Social Indexes (Political Indexs) Color Maps NAFTA Topics (Nafta Project) Politics & Financial Networks (Political Netwoks) Mix Hard data & Sentiment & VAR models (CBSI and Turkey Sentiment Indexes)
12. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data 02 Geopolitical and social analysis
13. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Tracking Geopolitics on real time is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers 12 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Conflict Intensity Map Oct 2017 (Number of conflicts/ Total events)
14. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data From an historical perspective… 13 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research BBVA Research World Conflict Intensity Index 1979-2017 World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 USA UK Norway Sweden Austria Germany France Netherlands Italy Spain Belgium Ireland Portugal Greece Poland Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Croatia Turkey Russia Ukraine Georgia Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan Armenia Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Israel Jordan Syria Iraq Iran UAE Bahrain Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Mexico Brazil Chile Colombia Peru EM Europe & CIS Developed Markets N. Africa & Middle East LATAM
15. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data …to the current “hot” spots… 14 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-17 Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows and outflows BBVA Research Asia Conflict Intensity Index 2008-17
16. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Social unrest events across the world: Cairo, Istanbul and Hong Kong cases Protest events Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research … in “high definition” 15
17. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Democracy Education Election Leader Media msm Self identified human rights Broadcast and media Public sector management Governance Political party republican Anti corruption Peace operations and conflict management Arrest Criminal justice Social development Human rights Dictatorship Communist Soldiers Fragility conflict and violence Conflict and violence Political violence and war Nuclear and chemical war Military Manmade disaster implied Political violence and civil war Weapons of mass destruction Nuclear energy Weapons bomb Weapons cruise missile Weapons surface to air missile Weapons warhead Terror Armedconflict Bombthreat Kill 2015 2016 2017 We can check hot spots like North Korea tensions in detail… Topics colormap related with North Korea 2015- 17 Topics network related with North Korea 2017 16
18. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data … the China’s links with the rest of the world… Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Chinese slowdown: media perception and country network Oman Qatar Iran Kazakhstan Russia U.A.E. Iraq Nicaragua Saudi Arabia Mexico Chile Dominican R. Brazil Bolivia Ecuador Venezuela Peru Panama Argentina Spain Austria Ukraine Israel Greece Poland Belgium Czech Republic Italy Netherlands Finland Ireland Iceland Portugal Hungary Yemen Sri Lanka Macau Indonesia Philippines Taiwan Cambodia Pakistan Turkey Brunei N. Zealand Burkina Faso Singapore Thailand Malaysia Zimbabwe Uganda Nigeria Zambia Congo Mozambique Kenya Sweden Angola E. Guinea Ethiopia South Africa France US UK Japan Australia Canada S. Korea India Switzerland Germany Hong Kong China 17
19. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data … the world trade evolution from an historical perspective… BBVA Research World Trade Support Index (Tone & Coverage verbal cooperation at WTO) -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Verbal Cooperation (3 months mov.avg) Material Cooperation (3 months mov.avg) BBVA Research Trade Support Index Changes 2008-17 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 18
20. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Spanish perception around the world according to the media Negative tone Positive tone Neutral tone Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research … and even the Spanish economic perception around the world 19
21. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data 03 The geography and digital transformation
22. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Media digital sentiment over the world in 2017 varies between regions… 21
23. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data …and over time. Our index allows us to understand the driving forces behind this evolution… 22 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Media sentiment digital index and components -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Mar-15 Apr-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Above average ON average Below average -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 apr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dec-15 jan-16 feb-16 mar-16 Digital Economy -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 apr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dec-15 jan-16 feb-16 mar-16 Fintech -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 apr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dec-15 jan-16 feb-16 mar-16 Digital Regulation Emerging Asia US Europe Confidence Interval for Emerging Asia
24. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data …focusing on particular cases such as the Big Data perception evolution among the main world players 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 US Malaysia UK Indonesia Italy India US World Europe Emerging Asia Philippines Germany Spain France Vietnam China Bangladesh Pakistan 2017 2015 2016 Big Data media sentiment in the world and by countries overt time 23 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 World media coverage on Big Data
25. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Turkey United Kingdom France India Germany Italy Spain Iran Taiwan Korea Indonesia Vietnam Albania Colombia Hong Kong Thailand Philippines Kosovo Armenia Switzerland Peru Portugal Hungary Qatar Belarus Netherlands Bangladesh Bolivia Kuwait Uruguay Tunisia Ecuador Moldova Bahrain Slovenia Sri Lanka Cuba Croatia Estonia Guatemala Latvia -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Digital evolution and its impact on employment and productivity 24 + - Jobs develompment Productivity and innovation Importance of digital variables to explain job development and productivity
26. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data You can find us at: Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Media sentiment digital index and components BBVA Research webpage LinkedIn Twitter 25
27. November 2017 Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data Alvaro Ortiz and Tomasa Rodrigo Big Data Spain 2017