Redefining confidence: Cognitive biases in an architect's life

Keynote at the O'Reilly Software Architecture Conference in Berlin.

Abstract:

At the time of writing this, Wikipedia’s “Cognitive bias codex” has more than 200 entries, and it feels to me like Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” is referenced in every other conference talk I’m watching. It’s official: Human beings are just not the rational thinkers we like to think we are.

In this talk, I go through just a few of the cognitive biases that can trip us up as architects, and how to soften their potentially negative impact.

Transcript

1. Redefining Confidence
   Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410
   

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2. You do have in-depth
   technical knowledge.
   But you often use words
   that make your statements
   sound weaker.
   

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3. You could be
   even more
   confident.
   

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4. Thank you, I will
   consider that.
   But...
   You could be even
   more confident.
   

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5. “People are
   generally
   rational”
   “Emotions
   explain the
   exceptions”
   Daniel Kahneman, „Thinking fast and slow“
   

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6. People are
   generally
   rational
   Emotions
   explain the
   exceptions
   What we usually assume
   Cognitive Biases
   

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7. 7
   https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Cognitive_bias_codex_en.svg
   

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8. Confirmation Bias
   Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information
   in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
   

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10. Confirmation Bias et al
    Don’t repeat
    yourself, ever.
    

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11. Software development is
    full of uncertainty
    

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12. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/04/uncertainty-stressful-research-neuroscience
    

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13. Zero Risk Bias
    Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero
    over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
    

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14. Zero Risk Bias
    Security
    Avoiding
    Lock-in
    Premature
    optimization
    

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15. Availability Heuristic
    Our tendency to think that
    if something can be easily recalled,
    it must be important
    

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16. Use models
    

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17. Use models
    Threat modelling
    Security
    

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18. Use models
    “Don’t get locked up
    in avoiding lock-in”
    Gregor Hohpe
    https://martinfowler.com/articles/oss-lockin.html
    Avoiding
    Lock-in
    

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19. Be explicit
    about trade-offs
    

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20. Do Be Agile
    https://agilemanifesto.org/
    

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21. Software delivery is
    full of uncertainty
    

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22. Architecture is
    “the important stuff that people
    perceive as hard to change”
    - Martin Fowler
    

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23. Learning from
    our decisions
    

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24. Outcome Bias
    Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision
    based on the outcome of that decision.
    

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25. Outcome Bias
    Outcome
    Decision
    ?
    

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26. Outcome Bias
    Outcome
    Decision
    ?
    

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27. Outcome Bias
    

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28. Distinguish skill from luck
    Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”
    &&
    

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29. ”...given what we knew at the time, our
    skills and abilities, the resources
    available, and the situation at hand.”
    

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30. Self-serving Bias
    When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts,
    but blame failure on external factors
    

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31. ||
    “Redefining right”
    Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”
    

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32. Be explicit
    about trade-offs
    

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33. Write Architecture
    Decision Records
    

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34. Outcome bias
    Confirmation Bias
    Zero Risk Bias
    Availability Heuristic
    Self-serving bias
    More
    

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35. “You could be
    even more
    confident.” What does
    that even
    mean?
    

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36. “You could be
    even more
    confident.” What does
    that even
    mean?
    Do I really
    want to?
    

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37. “I’m not sure”
    Asking questions
    Changing my mind
    

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38. “Using uncertainty to
    our advantage”
    - Annie Duke
    

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39. How confident are you
    about your confidence?
    

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40. Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410
    

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