Redefining confidence: Cognitive biases in an architect's life

Keynote at the O'Reilly Software Architecture Conference in Berlin.

Abstract:

At the time of writing this, Wikipedia’s “Cognitive bias codex” has more than 200 entries, and it feels to me like Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” is referenced in every other conference talk I’m watching. It’s official: Human beings are just not the rational thinkers we like to think we are.

In this talk, I go through just a few of the cognitive biases that can trip us up as architects, and how to soften their potentially negative impact.

Transcript

1. Redefining Confidence Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410
2. You do have in-depth technical knowledge. But you often use words that make your statements sound weaker.
3. You could be even more confident.
4. Thank you, I will consider that. But... You could be even more confident.
5. “People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” Daniel Kahneman, „Thinking fast and slow“
6. People are generally rational Emotions explain the exceptions What we usually assume Cognitive Biases
7. 7 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Cognitive_bias_codex_en.svg
8. Confirmation Bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
10. Confirmation Bias et al Don’t repeat yourself, ever.
11. Software development is full of uncertainty
12. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/04/uncertainty-stressful-research-neuroscience
13. Zero Risk Bias Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
14. Zero Risk Bias Security Avoiding Lock-in Premature optimization
15. Availability Heuristic Our tendency to think that if something can be easily recalled, it must be important
16. Use models
17. Use models Threat modelling Security
18. Use models “Don’t get locked up in avoiding lock-in” Gregor Hohpe https://martinfowler.com/articles/oss-lockin.html Avoiding Lock-in
19. Be explicit about trade-offs
20. Do Be Agile https://agilemanifesto.org/
21. Software delivery is full of uncertainty
22. Architecture is “the important stuff that people perceive as hard to change” - Martin Fowler
23. Learning from our decisions
24. Outcome Bias Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision based on the outcome of that decision.
25. Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?
26. Outcome Bias Outcome Decision ?
27. Outcome Bias
28. Distinguish skill from luck Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets” &&
29. ”...given what we knew at the time, our skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.”
30. Self-serving Bias When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts, but blame failure on external factors
31. || “Redefining right” Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”
32. Be explicit about trade-offs
33. Write Architecture Decision Records
34. Outcome bias Confirmation Bias Zero Risk Bias Availability Heuristic Self-serving bias More
35. “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
36. “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean? Do I really want to?
37. “I’m not sure” Asking questions Changing my mind
38. “Using uncertainty to our advantage” - Annie Duke
39. How confident are you about your confidence?
40. Birgitta Böckeler | @birgitta410