Politics and Need

Transcript

1. Politics and Need
   Examining Governor's Decisions to
   Oppose the Medicaid Expansion
   Charles Barrilleaux and Carlisle Rainey
   

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4. “Obamacare is going to be
   horrible for patients. It's going to
   be horrible for taxpayers. It's
   probably the biggest job killer
   ever.”
   - October 2010
   

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5. “While the federal government
   is committed to paying 100
   percent of the cost, I cannot, in
   good conscience, deny Floridians
   that need it access to health
   care.”
   - February 2013
   

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7. “I think based on where
   the membership is
   today, the votes are not
   there to expand
   Medicaid no matter
   what the governor
   says.”
   - March 2013
   

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8. 46%
   

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9. 46%
   51%
   

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10. 46%
    51%
    33%
    

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11. There is often a tension between
    politics
    and
    need.
    

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12. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance
    

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13. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance
    

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14. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance
    

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15. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance
    

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16. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance
    

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18. GOP Governor
    47
    [19, 71]
    

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19. GOP Legislature
    34
    [-1, 60]
    

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20. Public Opinion
    -23
    [12, -55]
    

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21. Percent Uninsured
    0
    [-30, 31]
    

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22. “Iowa joins a growing
    number of states – led by
    both Republican and
    Democratic governors--that
    have chosen to put politics
    aside in expanding
    Medicaid…”
    - December 2013
    

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23. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need
    Legislative Composition > Need
    Public Opinion > Need
    

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24. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need
    Public Opinion > Need
    

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25. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need 0.11
    Public Opinion > Need
    

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26. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need 0.11
    Public Opinion > Need 0.14
    

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27. Robustness
    

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29. Paper, Data, and Code at:
    crain.co/need
    

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