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Politics and Need

Politics and Need

Carlisle Rainey

May 17, 2014
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  1. Politics and Need
    Examining Governor's Decisions to
    Oppose the Medicaid Expansion
    Charles Barrilleaux and Carlisle Rainey

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  4. “Obamacare is going to be
    horrible for patients. It's going to
    be horrible for taxpayers. It's
    probably the biggest job killer
    ever.”
    - October 2010

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  5. “While the federal government
    is committed to paying 100
    percent of the cost, I cannot, in
    good conscience, deny Floridians
    that need it access to health
    care.”
    - February 2013

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  7. “I think based on where
    the membership is
    today, the votes are not
    there to expand
    Medicaid no matter
    what the governor
    says.”
    - March 2013

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  8. 46%

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  9. 46%
    51%

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  10. 46%
    51%
    33%

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  11. There is often a tension between
    politics
    and
    need.

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  12. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance

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  13. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance

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  14. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance

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  15. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance

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  16. Politics
    Governor's Partisanship
    Legislature's Composition
    Public Opinion
    Need
    Level of Uninsurance

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  18. GOP Governor
    47
    [19, 71]

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  19. GOP Legislature
    34
    [-1, 60]

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  20. Public Opinion
    -23
    [12, -55]

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  21. Percent Uninsured
    0
    [-30, 31]

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  22. “Iowa joins a growing
    number of states – led by
    both Republican and
    Democratic governors--that
    have chosen to put politics
    aside in expanding
    Medicaid…”
    - December 2013

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  23. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need
    Legislative Composition > Need
    Public Opinion > Need

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  24. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need
    Public Opinion > Need

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  25. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need 0.11
    Public Opinion > Need

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  26. Hypothesis p-value
    Governor’s Partisanship > Need 0.03
    Legislative Composition > Need 0.11
    Public Opinion > Need 0.14

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  27. Robustness

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  29. Paper, Data, and Code at:
    crain.co/need

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