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SaaS アナリティクス・シリーズ - 生存分析のためのデータの作り方 Part 2

SaaS アナリティクス・シリーズ - 生存分析のためのデータの作り方 Part 2

SaaSなどのサブスクリプションのビジネスでは顧客のチャーンをしっかりと理解することが非常に重要になりますが、そこでよく使われるのが生存分析です。

今回は、アクセスログのデータから生存分析ためのデータを作成する方法を紹介します。

Ikuya Murasato

June 03, 2021
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  1. EXPLORATORY
    ΦϯϥΠϯɾηϛφʔ #57
    SaaS ΞφϦςΟΫε #14
    ੜଘ෼ੳͷͨΊͷσʔλͷ࡞Γํ Part 2

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  2. ΞδΣϯμ
    1. ੜଘ෼ੳͷ঺հ
    2. ࢧ෷͍σʔλ͔ΒνϟʔϯΛಛఆ͠ɺੜଘ෼ੳͷͨΊͷσʔλΛ࡞Δ
    3. WebαʔϏεͷར༻ϩά͔ΒνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͠ɺੜଘ෼ੳͷͨΊͷ
    σʔλΛ࡞Δ

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  3. 3
    ࢧ෷͍σʔλ͔ΒνϟʔϯΛಛఆͨ͠Βɺੜଘ෼ੳ͕
    Ͱ͖Δɻ
    ͨͩ͠ɺʮࢧ෷͍ʯͱ͍͏νϟʔϯͷಛఆʹ໾ཱͭΠ
    ϕϯτΛ࣋ͨͳ͍Ϗδωεܗଶ΋͋Δɻ

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  4. 4

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  5. 5
    Facebook͸޿ࠂܕͷϏδωεͱͳΓɺΑ͘ଟ͘ͷਓʹɺΑΓ௕͍ؒαʔϏεΛར
    ༻ͯ͠ཉ͍͠ɻ

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  6. 6
    Ϣʔβʔͷʮࢧ෷͍ʯ͕ൃੜ͠ͳ͍ϏδωεͰ΋ɺੜ
    ଘ෼ੳΛߦ͍ɺͲΕ͚ͩͷϢʔβʔΛϦςϯγϣϯͰ
    ͖͍ͯΔͷ͔Λཧղ͍ͨ͠ɻ

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  7. 7
    αʔϏεͷར༻σʔλʢΞΫηεϩάͳͲʣΛར༻͢
    Ε͹ɺνϟʔϯΛਪఆͯ͠ੜଘ෼ੳ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ

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  8. νϟʔϯͷਪఆํ๏
    8
    1. ࠷ޙͷར༻೔͔Βͷܦա࣌ؒͰνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ
    2. Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷར༻ִ͔ؒΒνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ

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  9. νϟʔϯͷਪఆํ๏
    9
    1. ࠷ޙͷར༻೔͔Βͷܦա࣌ؒͰνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ
    2. Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷར༻ִ͔ؒΒνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ

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  10. ҎԼͷλΠϛϯάͰαʔϏεΛར༻͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔΛྫʹߟ͑ͯΈΔɻ
    10
    2/11 2/18 3/10 3/27
    ࠷ޙͷར༻

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  11. 2/11 2/18 3/10 3/27
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    11
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    ͜ͷϢʔβʔ͸ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻͔Β2ϲ݄Ҏ্͕ܦա͓ͯ͠ΓɺαʔϏε
    ͷར༻ΛࣙΊ͍ͯΔՄೳੑ͕ߴ͍ɻ
    68೔ؒ

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  12. 12
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    30೔Ҏ಺
    αʔϏεΛܧଓతʹར༻͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔͰ͋Ε͹ɺ1ϲ݄ʹ1౓͸αʔϏεΛར༻
    ͢Δ΋ͷͱԾఆͯ͠ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻͔Β30೔Ҏ্͕ܦա͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔ͸νϟʔϯ
    ͨ͠΋ͷͱͯ͠ਪఆͰ͖Δɻ
    5/3
    2/11 2/18 3/10 3/27
    ࠷ޙͷར༻ 30೔લ

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  13. 13
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    5/17
    Ծʹ5/17ʹ࠷ޙͷར༻͕͋ͬͨϢʔβʔ͸ɺ30೔લΑΓ΋ޙʹɺαʔϏ
    εΛར༻͍ͯ͠ΔͨΊɺνϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍Ϣʔβʔͱͯ͠ਪఆͰ͖Δɻ
    30೔Ҏ಺
    5/3
    2/11 2/18 3/10 4/10
    30೔લ

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  14. 14
    νϟʔϯͷ൑ఆ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇ − 30೔)
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    30೔Ҏ಺
    5/3
    2/11 2/18 3/10 3/27
    ࠷ޙͷར༻ 30೔લ

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  15. 15
    νϟʔϯͷ൑ఆ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (today() − days(30))
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    30೔Ҏ಺
    5/3
    2/11 2/18 3/10 3/27
    ࠷ޙͷར༻ 30೔લ

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  16. 16
    ࠓճ࢖͏αϯϓϧσʔλ
    ΞΫηεϩά

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  17. 17
    1ߦ͕1ΞΫηεΛද͍ͯ͠Δɻ
    ࠃͷ৘ใ
    ސ٬ID
    ΞΫηε೔࣌ ར༻OS

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  18. 1ߦ͕1ϢʔβʔʹͳΔΑ͏ʹɺ࠷ॳͱ࠷ޙͷར༻೔Λूܭ͢Δɻ
    18

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  19. 19
    useridͷྻϔομϝχϡʔ͔ΒूܭʢsummarizeʣΛબ୒͢Δɻ

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  20. 20
    ΞΫηε೔࣌Λ஋ʹબ୒͠ɺूܭؔ਺ʹ࠷ॳͷ೔ʢminʣΛબ୒͠ɺ࠷
    ॳͷར༻λΠϛϯάΛूܭ͢Δɻ

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  21. 21
    ΞΫηε೔࣌Λ஋ʹબ୒͠ɺूܭؔ਺ʹ࠷ॳͷ೔ʢminʣΛબ୒͠ɺ࠷
    ॳͷར༻λΠϛϯάΛूܭ͢Δɻ

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  22. 22
    ྻ໊Λ෼͔Γ΍͍͢ྻ໊ʹมߋ͢Δɻ

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  23. 23
    ࠷ॳͷར༻λΠϛϯάͱ࠷ޙͷར༻λΠϛϯάΛूܭͰ͖ͨɻ

    View Slide

  24. ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇ͱ࠷ޙͷར༻೔Λ΋ͱʹɺ30೔Ҏ಺ʹར༻͕͔͋ͬͨΛܭ
    ࢉͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δɻ
    24
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (today() − days(30))

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  25. 25
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔͔ΒܭࢉΛ࡞੒ʢMutateʣ͢Δɻ

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  26. 26
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢ΔܭࢉࣜΛೖྗ࣮͠ߦ͢Δɻ

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  27. 27
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆͰ͖Δɻ

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  28. 28
    ͱ͜ΖͰɺɺɺ

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  29. 29
    ຖ೔ͷΑ͏ʹαʔϏεΛར༻͢Δਓ΋͍Ε͹ɺͦ΋ͦ
    ΋2ϲ݄ʹ1౓͔͠αʔϏεΛར༻͠ͳ͍ਓ΋͍Δɻ
    ·ͨ30೔ͱ͍͏ਪఆج४ʹ͸ࠜڌ͕ͳ͍ɻ
    Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷαʔϏεͷར༻ঢ়گʹ஫໨ͯ͠ɺ
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ͜ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍͔ɻ

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  30. νϟʔϯͷਪఆํ๏
    30
    1. ࠷ޙͷར༻೔͔Βͷܦա࣌ؒͰνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ
    2. Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷར༻ִ͔ؒΒνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ

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  31. 31
    2िؒʹ1౓ͷִؒͰར༻͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔΛྫʹߟ͑ͯΈΔɻ
    3/15
    1/11 1/25 2/4 2/18 3/1

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  32. 32
    3/15 6/3
    ࠓ೔
    2िؒʹ1౓ͷִؒͰαʔϏεΛར༻͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔ͕ɺ2ϲ݄Ҏ্αʔϏεΛ
    ར༻͍ͯ͠ͳ͚Ε͹ɺͦͷϢʔβʔ͸νϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠ΔͱਪఆͰ͖Δɻ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    80೔ؒ
    1/11 1/25 2/4 2/18 3/1

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  33. 33
    2ϲ݄͓͖ʹɺαʔϏεΛར༻͍ͯ͠ΔϢʔβʔͰ͸Ͳ͏ͩΖ͏ɻ
    4/20
    12/20 2/20

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  34. 34
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    Ծʹ1ϲ݄Ҏ্ɺαʔϏεͷར༻͕ͳͯ͘΋ɺࠓޙ΋αʔϏεΛར༻͢ΔՄೳੑ͕
    े෼͋Γɺ͜ͷϢʔβʔ͸νϟʔϯͨ͠΋ͷͱਪఆ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ݱ࣮తͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ
    4/20
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    44೔ؒ
    12/20 2/20

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  35. 35
    ͦΕͧΕͷϢʔβʔͷར༻ִؒΛݩʹνϟʔϯΛ൑அ
    ͨ͠΄͏͕ɺΑΓਖ਼֬ʹνϟʔϯΛਪఆͰ͖Δɻ

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  36. 36
    ͔͠͠ɺར༻ִؒ͸͹Βͭ͘ɻ

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  37. 37
    60 10
    7
    21
    9
    3
    30
    4/20
    4/10
    4/3
    3/13
    3/4
    1/4
    1/1
    11/30

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  38. 38
    Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱʹར༻ִؒͷස౓Λूܭͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯ
    Λਪఆ͢Δ͖͍͠஋ΛܾΊΔɻ

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  39. 39
    1ਓͷϢʔβʔͷ͜Ε·Ͱͷར༻ִؒͷස౓Λूܭ͢ΔʢώετάϥϜʣ
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ

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  40. 40
    ࠷େͷར༻ִؒΛ͖͍͠஋ͱͯ͠ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻͔Βͷܦա೔਺͕ɺͦ
    ͷִؒΛ௒͍͑ͯΔ৔߹ʹνϟʔϯ͍ͯ͠Δ΋ͷͱਪఆͰ͖Δɻ
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ࠷େ஋
    νϟʔϯ

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  41. 41
    ͨͩ͠ɺར༻ִ͕ؒͨ·ͨ·ۃ୺ʹۭ͍ͯ͠·͏͜ͱ΋͋Δɻ
    4/20
    2/24
    1/7
    11/30
    9/26
    6/18 10/26
    6/5
    13 100 30 35 38 48 55

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  42. 42
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ࠷େ஋
    ࠷େͷར༻ִؒΛ͖͍͠஋ʹ͢Δͱɺ1ճͷۃ୺ͳར༻ִؒʹৼΓճ͞ΕɺλΠϜ
    ϦʔʹνϟʔϯΛਪఆͰ͖ͳ͍ɻ
    νϟʔϯ

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  43. 43
    ۃ୺ͳར༻ִؒͷ஋ͷӨڹΛड͚ͳ͍Α͏ʹɺશମͷ95%ͷར༻ִ͕ؒ
    ؚ·ΕΔͱ͜Ζʹɺ͖͍͠஋Λઃఆ͢Δɻ
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ͖͍͠஋
    શମͷ95%ͷར༻
    ִؚ͕ؒ·ΕΔ
    55

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  44. 44
    ͜ͷΑ͏ʹɺස౓Λখ͍͞ํ͔ΒॱʹͳΒ΂ͯɺશମͷσʔλͷͲͷ͘
    Β͍ΛؚΉ͔Λද͖͍͢͠஋ΛύʔηϯλΠϧͱݺͿɻ
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    55
    શମͷ95%ͷར༻
    ִؚ͕ؒ·ΕΔ

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  45. 45
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    55
    νϟʔϯ
    ར༻ִؒͷ࠷େ஋Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺ95%ύʔηϯλΠϧΛ͖͍͠஋ʹઃఆ͢Δ͜ͱͰɺۃ
    ୺ʹେ͖͍ར༻ִؒΛআ͍ͯɺར༻࣮ଶʹΑΓ͍ۙܗͰ͖͍͠஋ΛઃఆͰ͖Δɻ

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  46. 46
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    4/20
    4/9
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ: 55೔ؒ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ͱࠓ೔ͷ೔෇͔Βར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ෼ɺ͔͞ͷ΅ͬͨ೔෇
    Λൺ΂ͯɺνϟʔϯΛ͍ͯ͠Δ͔Ͳ͏͔Λ൑ఆ͢Δɻ
    55೔લ
    2/24
    1/7
    11/30
    9/26
    6/18 10/26
    6/5

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  47. 47
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    4/20
    4/9
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    55೔લ
    2/24
    1/7
    11/30
    9/26
    6/18 10/26
    6/5
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (<ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇> − <ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ>)
    νϟʔϯͷ൑ఆ

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  48. 48
    ͜ͷਪఆΛϢʔβʔ͝ͱʹߦ͏ɻ

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  49. 49
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱʹར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛܭࢉ͢Δɻ
    55
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    32
    ϢʔβʔA
    ϢʔβʔB

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  50. 50
    6/3
    4/20
    4/9
    Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷར༻ִؒͷύʔηϯλΠϧΛར༻ͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯਪఆ͢Δɻ
    3/3
    1/7
    12/30
    11/29
    9/26
    6/18
    3/20
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ: 55೔
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ: 32೔
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    4/20 5/14
    2/18
    2/2
    12/23
    11/15
    10/3
    8/28
    7/20
    ࠓ೔
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    55೔લ
    32೔લ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻

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  51. 51
    ͪͳΈʹɺɺɺ

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  52. 52
    10 20 30 50 100
    0 40 60 70 80 90
    10
    20
    30
    ස౓
    ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    ར༻ִؒͷ90ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    νϟʔϯͷਪఆج४ΛγϏΞʹ͚ͨ͠Ε͹ɺΑΓখ͞ͳύʔηϯλΠϧΛར༻
    ͢Ε͹ྑ͍ɻ
    42
    νϟʔϯ

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  53. 53
    Let’s try!

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  54. 54
    1. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    2. ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧͷूܭ
    3. νϟʔϯͷਪఆ

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  55. 55
    1. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    2. ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧͷूܭ
    3. νϟʔϯͷਪఆ

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  56. Ϣʔβʔͷར༻ִؒΛͲͷΑ͏ʹܭࢉ͢Δͷ͔ɻ
    56
    60 10
    7
    21
    9
    3
    30
    4/20
    4/10
    4/3
    3/13
    3/4
    1/4
    1/1
    11/30

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  57. 1ߦ͕1ΞΫηεͷσʔλ͔ΒɺϢʔβʔͷར༻ִؒΛܭࢉ͍ͨ͠ɻ
    57
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123

    View Slide

  58. ར༻ִؒ͸αʔϏεͷར༻೔͔Βલճͷར༻೔ΛҾ͍ͯɺܭࢉͰ͖Δɻ
    58
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123

    View Slide

  59. lagؔ਺Λར༻ͯ͠ɺલճͷར༻೔Λऔಘ͢Δɻ
    59
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ lag(ར༻೔)
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-09-01 2020-05-01
    lag(<ར༻೔>)

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  60. 60
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ lag(ར༻೔) ར༻ִؒ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 2020-02-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 2020-05-01 123
    <ར༻೔> − lag(<ར༻೔>)
    ར༻ִؒ

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  61. 61
    ͍͔ͭ͘஫ҙ͕ඞཁͳ͜ͱ͕͋Δɻ

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  62. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-09-01 212
    Tom 2020-05-01 -123
    ར༻೔Ͱฒͼସ͑ΒΕ͍ͯͳ͍ͱਖ਼͍͠ར༻ִ͕ؒܭࢉͰ͖ͳ͍ɻ

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  63. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123
    ར༻೔ΛঢॱͰฒͼସ͑Δɻ

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  64. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01
    Tom 2020-09-01
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03
    σʔλʹ͸TomҎ֎ͷϢʔβʔ͕͍Δɻ

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  65. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ lag(ར༻೔) ར༻ִؒ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 2020-02-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 2020-05-01 123
    John 2020-01-01 2020-09-01 -243
    John 2020-02-03 2020-01-01 33
    ͔͠͠ɺ͜ͷ··ͩͱTomͱJohnʹ·͕ͨͬͯલճͷར༻೔Λܭࢉ͠
    ͯ͠·͏ɻ

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  66. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01
    Tom 2020-09-01
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ͰάϧʔϓԽ͢Δɻ

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  67. Ϣʔβʔ໊ͰάϧʔϓԽ͓ͯ͘͜͠ͱͰɺϢʔβʔ͝ͱʹར༻ִ͕ؒద
    ੾ʹܭࢉͰ͖Δɻ
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ lag(ར༻೔) ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 2020-02-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 2020-05-01 123
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03 2020-01-01 33

    View Slide

  68. 68
    ΋͏1ͭ஫ҙ͕ඞཁͳ͜ͱ͕͋Δɻ

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  69. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ lag(ར༻೔) ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-02-01 2020-02-01 0
    Tom 2020-05-01 2020-02-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 2020-05-01 123
    ಉ͡೔ʹෳ਺ͷΞΫηε͕͋Δͱɺར༻ִ͕ؒ0೔ʹͳͬͯ͠·͏ͷ
    Ͱɺ1೔1ΞΫηεͷσʔλʹ͢Δඞཁ͕͋Δɻ

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  70. ར༻೔Ͱιʔτ
    70

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  71. ϢʔβʔIDͰάϧʔϓԽ
    71

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  72. 1೔1ΞΫηεʹϑΟϧλ͢Δɻ
    72

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  73. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    73

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  74. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    74

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  75. 1. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    2. ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧͷूܭ
    3. νϟʔϯͷਪఆ
    75

    View Slide

  76. 76
    ֤Ϣʔβʔͷར༻ִ͕ؒܭࢉͰ͖ͨΒɺੜଘۂઢ༻ͷσʔλΛ࡞੒͢ΔͨΊʹɺ
    ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭ͍ͨ͠ɻ
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    Tom 2020-02-01 2020-11-20 120
    John 2020-01-01 2020-04-04 39
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123
    Tom 2020-11-20 80
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03 33
    John 2020-02-24 21
    John 2020-04-04 40

    View Slide

  77. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    Tom 2020-02-01 2020-11-20 120
    John 2020-01-01 2020-04-04 39
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123
    Tom 2020-11-20 80
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03 33
    John 2020-02-24 21
    John 2020-04-04 40
    ར༻೔ͷ࠷খ஋ͱ࠷େ஋Λूܭ͢Ε͹ɺ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ʹ
    ͳΔɻ
    77

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  78. Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123
    Tom 2020-11-20 80
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03 33
    John 2020-02-24 21
    John 2020-04-04 40
    78
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭ͍ͨ͠ɻ
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    Tom 2020-02-01 2020-11-20 120
    John 2020-01-01 2020-04-04 39

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  79. quantile(<ར༻ִؒ>, probs = <ύʔηϯλΠϧ>)
    79
    ύʔηϯλΠϧͷूܭ
    ※࣮ࡍʹूܭ͢Δࡍ͸ɺsummarize(ूܭ)ؔ਺ͷதͰར༻͢Δ

    View Slide

  80. 80
    ※࣮ࡍʹूܭ͢Δࡍ͸ɺsummarize(ूܭ)ؔ਺ͷதͰར༻͢Δ
    quantile(<ར༻ִؒ>, probs = 0.95)
    ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ར༻೔ ར༻ִؒʢ೔ʣ
    Tom 2020-02-01
    Tom 2020-05-01 90
    Tom 2020-09-01 123
    Tom 2020-11-20 80
    John 2020-01-01
    John 2020-02-03 33
    John 2020-02-24 21
    John 2020-04-04 40
    Ϣʔβʔ໊ ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ
    Tom 2020-02-01 2020-11-20 120
    John 2020-01-01 2020-04-04 39

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  81. Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱʹूܭ(Summarize)͢Δɻ
    81

    View Slide

  82. ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ͷूܭ
    82
    ूܭؔ਺ʹ࠷ॳͷ೔(min)Λબ୒͢Δɻ

    View Slide

  83. ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ͷूܭ
    83
    ूܭؔ਺ʹ࠷ޙͷ೔(max)
    Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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  84. ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭ͢Δɻ
    84
    ूܭؔ਺ʹ෼Ґ਺Λબ୒͢Δɻ

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  85. ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭ͢Δɻ
    85
    ύʔηϯλΠϧΛখ਺Ͱೖྗ͢Δ

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  86. 86
    ࠷ॳͱ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭͰ͖ͨɻ

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  87. 1. ར༻ִؒͷܭࢉ
    2. ࠷ॳͷར༻೔ɺ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧͷूܭ
    3. νϟʔϯͷਪఆ
    87

    View Slide

  88. 88
    6/3
    ࠓ೔
    4/20
    4/9
    ࠷ޙͷར༻
    55೔લ
    2/24
    1/7
    11/30
    9/26
    6/18 10/26
    6/5
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (<ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇> − <ར༻ִؒͷ95ύʔηϯλΠϧ>)
    νϟʔϯͷ൑ఆ

    View Slide

  89. 89
    ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇ɺ࠷ޙͷΞΫηε೔ɺར༻ִؒͷ90ύʔηϯλΠϧΛ࢖ͬ
    ͯνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢ΔܭࢉΛ࡞੒ʢMutateʣ͢Δɻ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ <= (ࠓ೔ͷ೔෇ − ར༻ִؒͷ90ύʔηϯλΠϧ)

    View Slide

  90. 90
    νϟʔϯΛ൑ఆ͢ΔܭࢉΛ࡞੒͢Δɻ

    View Slide

  91. 91
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆͰ͖ͨɻ

    View Slide

  92. 92
    ͱ͜ΖͰɺɺɺ

    View Slide

  93. 93
    αʔϏεར༻ස౓͕গͳ͍Ϣʔβʔ͸ɺ෼෍Λݟੵ΋
    ΔͨΊͷσʔλ͕े෼ͱ͸ݴ͑ͳ͍ɻ

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  94. 94
    αʔϏεར༻ස౓͕গͳ͍Ϣʔβʔ͸ɺ෼෍Λݟੵ΋ΔͨΊͷσʔλ͕
    े෼ͱ͸ݴ͑ͳ͍ɻ

    View Slide

  95. 95
    ͦ͜ͰɺαʔϏεͷར༻ස౓ʹԠͯ͡ɺνϟʔϯͷ൑ఆํ๏Λม͑Δɻ
    ར༻ճ਺͕5ճҎԼ
    ࠷ޙͷར༻೔͔Βͷܦա࣌ؒͰ
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δ
    Ϣʔβʔ͝ͱͷར༻ִؒΛ΋ͱ
    ʹνϟʔϯΛਪఆ͢Δɻ
    Yes
    No

    View Slide

  96. 96
    ࠷ॳͱ࠷ޙͷར༻೔ͱར༻ִؒͷ90ύʔηϯλΠϧΛूܭͨ͠εςοϓͷ
    τʔΫϯΛ࠶౓։͖ɺར༻೔ͷҰҙͷ஋Λूܭͯ͠ɺར༻ස౓Λूܭ͢Δɻ

    View Slide

  97. 97
    ྻ໊Λ෼͔Γ΍໊͍͢শʹมߋ͢Δɻ

    View Slide

  98. 98
    νϟʔϯΛਪఆͨ͠εςοϓʹ໭Δɻ

    View Slide

  99. 99
    ৚݅Λࢦఆͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯͷ஋Λஔ͖׵͑Δɻ

    View Slide

  100. 100
    ৚݅Λࢦఆͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯͷ஋Λஔ͖׵͑Δɻ

    View Slide

  101. 101
    ৚݅Λࢦఆͯ͠ɺνϟʔϯͷ஋Λஔ͖׵͑Δɻ

    View Slide

  102. 102
    ৚݅ʹԠͯ͡ɺνϟʔϯͷਪఆํ๏Λม͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻ

    View Slide