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Land use and Flood: BHS Loughbourough meeting

Land use and Flood: BHS Loughbourough meeting

Presentation at the National Meeting of the British "Hydrological Society Land Use and Hydrological Extremes" held in Loughborough on 13 June 2016.

Ilaria Prosdocimi

June 13, 2016
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Transcript

  1. The impacts of urbanisation on river flow extremes: evidence from

    a British catchment Ilaria Prosdocimi Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath James Miller, Mike Hutchins, Gianni Vesuviano Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
  2. Changing Water Cycle - Pollcurb Changing climate and landscapes affect

    the way rivers work PollCurb investigates water pollution in rivers Today’s talk: hydrological response and peak flows Important for water pollution dispersion and flood risk estimation (FEH).
  3. Changing Water Cycle - Pollcurb Changing climate and landscapes affect

    the way rivers work PollCurb investigates water pollution in rivers Today’s talk: hydrological response and peak flows Important for water pollution dispersion and flood risk estimation (FEH).
  4. Changing Water Cycle - Pollcurb Changing climate and landscapes affect

    the way rivers work PollCurb investigates water pollution in rivers Today’s talk: hydrological response and peak flows Important for water pollution dispersion and flood risk estimation (FEH).
  5. Changing Water Cycle - Pollcurb Changing climate and landscapes affect

    the way rivers work PollCurb investigates water pollution in rivers Today’s talk: hydrological response and peak flows Important for water pollution dispersion and flood risk estimation (FEH).
  6. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  7. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  8. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  9. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  10. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  11. Urbanisation and flood risk Quantifying the change (see also Prosdocimi

    et al. 2015, WRR) Characterise the change of the hydrological response Statistical investigation of a case study
  12. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  13. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  14. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  15. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  16. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  17. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  18. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  19. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  20. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  21. Urbanisation and flood risk Relate changes in flow patterns to

    changes in urbanisation levels: • information on river flow • information on urban levels • information on catchment rainfall
  22. Reworking the POT series Microfilms of complete flow records available

    at the NRFA Identify POT events and extract additional properties of the hydrograph
  23. Reworking the POT series Microfilms of complete flow records available

    at the NRFA Identify POT events and extract additional properties of the hydrograph
  24. Peak flow changes Impact of urbanisation on peak flows (with

    rainfall control) Q100 at start (URBEXT=2.66, median rainfall): 13.55 Q100 at end (URBEXT=24.48, median rainfall): 16.13: 19% increase
  25. Peak flow changes Impact of urbanisation on peak flows (with

    rainfall control) Q100 at start (URBEXT=2.66, median rainfall): 13.55 Q100 at end (URBEXT=24.48, median rainfall): 16.13: 19% increase
  26. Peak flow changes Impact of urbanisation on peak flows (with

    rainfall control) Q100 at start (URBEXT=2.66, median rainfall): 13.55 Q100 at end (URBEXT=24.48, median rainfall): 16.13: 19% increase
  27. Peak flow changes Impact of urbanisation on peak flows (with

    rainfall control) Q100 at start (URBEXT=2.66, median rainfall): 13.55 Q100 at end (URBEXT=24.48, median rainfall): 16.13: 19% increase
  28. Kurtosis changes Model: kurtosis ∼ IG(µ, φ), with µ =

    exp(η). Impact of urbanisation on hydrograph kurtosis (with flood duration control) kurtosis at start (URBEXT=2.66, median flood duration): 2.13 kurtosis at end (URBEXT=24.48, median flood duration): 4.21
  29. Kurtosis changes Model: kurtosis ∼ IG(µ, φ), with µ =

    exp(η). Impact of urbanisation on hydrograph kurtosis (with flood duration control) kurtosis at start (URBEXT=2.66, median flood duration): 2.13 kurtosis at end (URBEXT=24.48, median flood duration): 4.21
  30. Kurtosis changes Model: kurtosis ∼ IG(µ, φ), with µ =

    exp(η). Impact of urbanisation on hydrograph kurtosis (with flood duration control) kurtosis at start (URBEXT=2.66, median flood duration): 2.13 kurtosis at end (URBEXT=24.48, median flood duration): 4.21
  31. Kurtosis changes Model: kurtosis ∼ IG(µ, φ), with µ =

    exp(η). Impact of urbanisation on hydrograph kurtosis (with flood duration control) kurtosis at start (URBEXT=2.66, median flood duration): 2.13 kurtosis at end (URBEXT=24.48, median flood duration): 4.21
  32. Kurtosis changes Model: kurtosis ∼ IG(µ, φ), with µ =

    exp(η). Impact of urbanisation on hydrograph kurtosis (with flood duration control) kurtosis at start (URBEXT=2.66, median flood duration): 2.13 kurtosis at end (URBEXT=24.48, median flood duration): 4.21
  33. Conclusion Constructing detailed datasets is a lot of work (but

    worth it). Statistical investigation of impacts of urbanisation on flow behaviour. Increased urbanisation impacts several aspects of flood hydrograph. References Miller, and Grebby (2014), Mapping long-term temporal change in imperviousness using topographic maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 30, 920, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.002 Prosdocimi, Kjeldsen, and Miller (2015), Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 42444262, doi:10.1002/2015WR017065.
  34. Conclusion Constructing detailed datasets is a lot of work (but

    worth it). Statistical investigation of impacts of urbanisation on flow behaviour. Increased urbanisation impacts several aspects of flood hydrograph. References Miller, and Grebby (2014), Mapping long-term temporal change in imperviousness using topographic maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 30, 920, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.002 Prosdocimi, Kjeldsen, and Miller (2015), Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 42444262, doi:10.1002/2015WR017065.
  35. Conclusion Constructing detailed datasets is a lot of work (but

    worth it). Statistical investigation of impacts of urbanisation on flow behaviour. Increased urbanisation impacts several aspects of flood hydrograph. References Miller, and Grebby (2014), Mapping long-term temporal change in imperviousness using topographic maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 30, 920, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.002 Prosdocimi, Kjeldsen, and Miller (2015), Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 42444262, doi:10.1002/2015WR017065.
  36. Conclusion Constructing detailed datasets is a lot of work (but

    worth it). Statistical investigation of impacts of urbanisation on flow behaviour. Increased urbanisation impacts several aspects of flood hydrograph. References Miller, and Grebby (2014), Mapping long-term temporal change in imperviousness using topographic maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 30, 920, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.002 Prosdocimi, Kjeldsen, and Miller (2015), Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 42444262, doi:10.1002/2015WR017065.
  37. Conclusion Constructing detailed datasets is a lot of work (but

    worth it). Statistical investigation of impacts of urbanisation on flow behaviour. Increased urbanisation impacts several aspects of flood hydrograph. References Miller, and Grebby (2014), Mapping long-term temporal change in imperviousness using topographic maps, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 30, 920, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.002 Prosdocimi, Kjeldsen, and Miller (2015), Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models, Water Resour. Res., 51, 42444262, doi:10.1002/2015WR017065.