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Story Points Suck!
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Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
Programming
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Story Points Suck!
Mauro Da Silva
November 16, 2024
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Transcript
Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple
THE HISTORY
…using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done”
is at best a weak idea
PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS
7:20AM Story Point
How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT
1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM
Plans based on average are wrong on average
None
PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not
deterministically
None
Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)
DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES
WORK IN PROGRESS
Monte Carlo Simulation
EXPERIMENT
EXPERIMENT
1 4 10,000x BASIC
When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd
Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1
When will be
How stories can be
START FORECASTING in just Four weeks
LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE
THROUGPUT
Use the assumptions of to verify stability
CFD
Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches
Finish all work that is started
Work in Progress should be constant
Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of
USE consistent UNITS
Think probabilistically
None
scatterplot
stories with
Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation
Ensure stability with assumptions of
IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions
Thank you
None