データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価（LTV）とその改善 / Lifetime Value as Asset Pricing with Data Science

Transcript

1. ೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾΠϊϕʔγϣϯɾϥϘᖒل඙
   σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ׆༻ͨ͠
   

   ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ-57ʣͱͦͷվળ
   %BUBCSJDLTXFCJOBS"*׆༻ʹΑΔϏδωε՝୊ղܾγϦʔζ$-7ɾ$IVSO෼ੳ
   1
   

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2. ϓϩμΫτϚωʔδϟʔɺݚڀһ
   ᖒل඙
   2
   ೥݄૑ץ
   w ܦࡁχϡʔεͷ༗ྉߪಡαʔϏε
   w ໿ສਓͷ༗ྉߪಡऀ
   w ֹ݄ ԁʢεϚϗ՝ۚͰ͸ ԁʣ
   w ૑ץҎདྷɺܖ໿਺͸৳ͼଓ͚͍ͯΔ
   w ͞ΒͳΔ੒௕͕ٻΊΒΕΔ
   ೔ܦిࢠ൛
   w ೥೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾೖࣾ
   w ։ൃ಺੡ԽɺσʔλδϟʔφϦζϜ
   w ػցֶशʹΑΔهࣄਪનɺݟग़͠΍ಈըͷࣗ
   ಈੜ੒ɺը૾ղੳ݁ՌʹΑΔΞϓϦͷ69޲
   ্ͳͲ
   w σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ࢖ͬͨࣄۀઓུͷཱҊ
   w ܖ໿ܗଶͷݟ௚͠ʹΑΔࣄۀՁ஋޲্
   

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3. "HFOEB
   3
   w ࣗݾ঺հ
   w $-7 -57
   w ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ
   w ࣄۀՁ஋ධՁ
   w ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔɺࢪࡦ͝ͱͷܦࡁޮՌͷࢼࢉ
   w $IVSO෼ੳ
   w -57ͷվળํ๏
   

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4. ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ$-7ʣ
   4
   

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5. ◼︎
   ਓͷސ٬͔ΒಘΒΕΔকདྷ
   ΩϟογϡϑϩʔͷׂҾݱࡏՁ஋
   ◼︎
   ӈਤ͸୯७ԽͷͨΊɺ೥ؒͷ࢒
   ଘ$-7 $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF
   7BMVF
   
   ◼︎
   ച্͚ͩͰͳ͘ɺ֫ಘඅ༻ͱҡ࣋
   අ༻Λߟྀ
   ◼︎
   ຖ݄ͷղ໿ՄೳੑʹΑΓ$BTI
   JOPVU
   fl
   PX͸చݮ͢Δ
   5
   ֹ݄ʹ࢒ଘ཰Λ͔͚ͨ΋ͷͷ૯࿨͕ɺ
   

   ͦͷސ٬͔ΒকདྷಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔ
   ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ͕Մೳ
   αϒεΫܖ໿͸
   

   ۚ༥ࢿ࢈ͦͷ΋ͷ
   ޿ࠂએ఻අΛ֫ಘඅ༻ɺγεςϜ։ൃඅΛҡ࣋අ༻ͱͯ͠ො՝ɻ
   ೥཰ͰׂҾɻղ໿཰ʢΞϓϦ՝ۚʣΛͱͯ͠ܭࢉɻ
   ໿ ԁ
   

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6. αϒεΫͷ
   ࣄۀՁ஋ධ
   Ձʢ-57ʣ
   ܖ໿਺෼ͷ$-7Λ଍ͤ͹ࣄۀՁ஋ʢ-57ʣʹͳΔ
   >$6450.&34"4
   "44&54+063/"-0'
   */5&3"$5*7&
   ."3,&5*/(70-6.&
   /6.#&38*/5&3
   
   6
   w ্ه͸؆қࣜɻղ໿཰͸ܖ໿͔Βͷܦա݄਺΍σϞάϥʹґଘ͢Δ
   w ࣮ࡍʹ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱʹ$-7Λܭࢉ͠଍͠߹Θ͍ͤͯΔ
   ࣄۀՁ஋ -57
   
   = ܖ໿਺
   "316 ܧଓظؒ
   × ×
   ໿ ԁ ສਓ
   ϲ݄
   ղ໿཰͕ຖ݄ҰఆͰͷ࣌ ೥݄࣌఺
   ฏۉސ٬୯Ձ
   $-7k
   =
   T
   ∑
   t=1
   $BTI'MPXk,t
   (1 + i)t
   -57 =
   N
   ∑
   k=1
   $-7k
   ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱͷ$-7ɺ ͸݄ ʹίϗʔτ ͔ΒಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔɺ ͸ׂҾ཰
   $-7k
   $BTI'MPXk,t
   t k i
   
   $-7
   

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7. ◼︎
   কདྷͷऩӹΛߟྀͨ͠ࢦඪ
   ◼︎
   αϒεΫࣄۀͰ͸ղ໿཰
   ʢ⁶ܧଓظؒʣ૿ݮͷকདྷ
   ऩӹ΁ͷӨڹ͕େ͖͍
   ◼︎
   ੒ख़ظʹֻ͔ࠩͬͨ͠ࣄۀ
   Ͱ͸ɺղ໿཰վળ͕ࣄۀ੒
   ௕ͷ伴ΛѲΔ
   ◼︎
   ސ٬୯ՁΛࢉೖ͢Δ͜ͱ
   Ͱɺ୯Ձ૿΁ͷҙࣝ෇͚Λ
   ߦ͏
   ◼︎
   কདྷͷࣄۀͷ࢟ʹ͍ͭͯͷ
   ༧ଌਫ਼౓͕ߴ·Δ
   7
   ࣋ଓతͳ੒௕ʹ͸ɺղ໿཰ͷվળ͕͔ܽͤͳ͍
   -57Λҙࣝ͢Δ
   ॏཁੑ
   
   
   
   
   
   ೥
   ݄
   ೥
   ݄
   ೥
   ݄
   ೥
   ݄
   ೥
   ݄
   ສ
   ສ
   ສ
   ສ
   ສ
   ສ
   ສ
   w্هΑΓɺ੒௕ݶք࣌ͷܖ໿਺ ͱͳΔ
   w࣮ࡍʹ͸ղ໿཰΍ਃࠐ਺͸݄ʹΑͬͯҟͳΔ
   4VCTmax
   =
   "DR
   w
   4VCTt+1
   − 4VCTt
   = "DR − w ⋅ 4VCTt
   ݄ ͷ༗ྉܖ໿਺
   ݄࣍ਃࠐ਺ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ
   

   ݄࣍ղ໿཰ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ
   4VCTt
   t
   "DR
   w
   ղ໿཰ͱ೥ؒਃࠐ਺͝ͱͷܖ໿਺ͷਪҠ
   >-JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄ
   ۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧ
   

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8. ײԠ౓෼ੳ
   ɹ$IVSO෼ੳΛ༻͍ͨࢪࡦධՁ
   8
   

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9. $IVSO෼ੳͷछྨ
   9
   ղ໿཰ͷਪҠɺଐੑ͝
   ͱͷղ໿཰ͷूܭ
   ࢪࡦͷɺղ໿཰ʹ༩͑
   ΔӨڹͷௐࠪ
   ఆٛͨ͠είΞʹجͮ
   ͍ͨࢪࡦͷޮՌͷਪܭ
   ղ໿཰ͷ೺ѲͷͨΊͷूܭɻ ղ໿཈ࢭΛاਤ࣮͠ࢪͨ͠ࢪࡦ͕
   ࣮ࡍʹղ໿཈ࢭͨ͠ྔΛଌΔɻͦ
   ͷࢪࡦʹ౰ͨͬͨϢʔβʔͷɺ࣮
   ࢪલޙͷσʔλΛ༻͍Δɻ
   ࣮ࡍͷղ໿ߦಈʹݱΕΔ·Ͱ͸ɺ
   ਺ϲ݄ఔ౓଴ͭඞཁ͕͋Δɻ
   "#ςετ΍܏޲είΞ෼ੳΛߦ͏
   ͷ͕ཧ૝͕ͩɺίετ͕͔͔Δͷ
   ͕೉఺ɻ
   ղ໿཰ͱ૬ؔͷ͋ΔΤϯήʔδϝ
   ϯτείΞΛఆٛ͠ɺࢪࡦޮՌ
   ͸ɺΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞࣗମ
   ΍ͦͷม਺ͷ૿ݮΛݟͯ൑அ͢
   Δɻ
   ೔ܦిࢠ൛ͷείΞ͸๚໰ස౓΍
   Ӿཡهࣄຊ਺͕ม਺ɻ
   ࠓճ͓࿩͢͠Δ͜ͱ
   

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10. 1SPEVDU5FDIͷࢪࡦ͸ɺࣄۀߩݙΛධՁ͠ʹ͍͘
    എܠײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    10
    ࣄۀՁ஋ (LTV)
    ܧଓ݄਺ F V
    ๚໰ස౓
    ফඅهࣄຊ਺
    ඇࣗൃత
    

    ղ໿཈ࢭ
    Net ARPPU ηοτ঎඼ߪೖ਺
    ൢചख਺ྉ
    ೔ܦIDܾࡁൺ཰
    ిࢠ൛ϓϥϯൺ཰
    ՝ۚऀ਺
    ৽نདྷ๚ऀ
    ࠶དྷ๚ऀ
    ແྉମݧਃࠐ
    ՝ۚ཰
    ίϯςϯπϚʔέ
    ϓϩϞʔγϣϯ
    ϓϩμΫτ
    ن໛ͷ֦େ
    ސ٬֫ಘ
    ղ໿཈ࢭ
    ൺֱత༰қ
    ൺֱత༰қ
    ࠔ೉
    ࣄۀߩݙ౓ͷ
    

    ධՁ
    ໨త
    νʔϜ
    ^
    ^
    ^
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛αϒεΫࣄۀʢݸਓʣͷ,1*πϦʔ
    ॳճ՝ۚ཰
    ηοτ঎඼୯Ձ
    MAU
    

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11. ◼︎
    සൟʹདྷ๚͠ଟ͘ͷهࣄΛ
    ಡΉϢʔβʔͷղ໿཰͸௿
    ͍
    ◼︎
    ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞΛ
    ఆΊɺΤϯήʔδ֊ڃ͝ͱ
    ʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ͠೺Ѳ
    ◼︎
    -JHIUϢʔβʔʹΤϯήʔ
    δ͍ͨͩ͘͜ͱ͕ඞཁ
    11
    είΞʹج͍ͮͨϢʔβʔ෼ྨΛߦ͍ɺ.JEEMFҎ্ͷϢʔβʔͷׂ
    ߹Λ,1*ͷҰͭʹઃఆɻ
    w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ Λఆٛ
    w '͸'SFRVFODZʢ๚໰ස౓ʣ
    w 7͸7PMVNFʢফඅهࣄຊ਺ʣ
    w ͝ͱͷ෼෍ΛجʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ
    F V
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    $IVSO෼ੳͱ
    

    Τϯήʔδϝϯτ
    

    είΞ
    0
    30,000
    60,000
    90,000
    120,000
    g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13
    ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ͱղ໿཰
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    -JHIU .JEEMF -PZBM 4VQFS-PZBM
    >೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆
    ༻ज़ɻ%9Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํ
    

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12. ํ๏ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ ͷଟՉ͕ղ໿͠΍͢
    ͞Λද͢
    w ֊ڃ಺ͷ෼෍͕Ұ༷ͩͱԾఆ͢Δͱɺ' 7͕૿ݮ
    ͨ࣌͠ʹ ͷ෼෍͕εϥΠυ͢ΔྔΛ
    ܭࢉͰ͖Δ
    F V
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    ࢪࡦͷ' 7վળྔΛݟࠐΉ͜ͱͰ
    $IVSOվળɺച্ߩݙΛਪఆ͢Δ
    12
    ༷ʑͳಛ௃ྔͷ͏ͪɺղ໿΁ͷӨ
    ڹ͕େ͖͍ͷ͸'ͱ7
    w ֊ڃ͝ͱͷղ໿཰͸ɺ֓Ͷ୯ௐݮগͱ
    ͳΔ
    w ͕૿͑ΔͱɺҰఆ਺͕࣍ͷ֊ڃʹεϥΠυ͢Δ
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    F V
    ࠜڌײԠ౓෼ੳ
    10%
    ར༻ਓ਺ͷׂ߹ ๚໰ස౓
    × 1.2
    ফඅهࣄຊ਺
    × 1.1
    0
    30,000
    60,000
    90,000
    120,000
    g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13
    ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ʢݱࡏͱ26.9%վળʣͱղ໿཰
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    1೥ؒͷച্૿
    0.15ԯԁ
    

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13. -57վળҊͷྫࣔ
    13
    

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14. ◼︎
    ػೳར༻͝ͱʹɺސ٬ͷΤϯ
    ήʔδϝϯτ͕ҟͳΔ
    ◼︎
    ͞ΒʹΤϯήʔδ͞ΕΔΑ͏
    ʹɺػೳΛਪનදࣔ͢Δ࢓૊
    Έ
    ◼︎
    ᶃػೳ͝ͱͷΤϯήʔδଟՉ
    ᶄϢʔβʔ͕ػೳΛ࢖͍࢝Ί
    Δ֬཰ͦΕͧΕΛਪఆ͢ΔϞ
    σϧΛ࡞੒
    ◼︎
    %BUBCSJDLT্ͰϞσϧΛߏங
    த
    14
    ʢࣄྫ঺հʣ'JOBODJBM5JNFTͰ͸ػೳͷಡऀΤϯήʔδϝ
    ϯτʹ༩͑ΔӨڹͱɺͦͷػೳͷར༻։࢝֬཰Λܭࢉ͠ػೳ
    ͷਪનදࣔΛߦͬͨ
    >)PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU
    "DUJPOGPS'5SFBEFST
    ͞ΒͳΔΤϯήʔδͷͨΊ
    ͷػೳͷਪન
    /FYU#FTU
    "DUJPOʢ/#"ʣ
    

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15. ·ͱΊ
    15
    -57ܭࢉ͸
    

    ܖ໿ͷࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ
    $IVSO෼ੳΛ࢖ͬͨ
    ࢪࡦධՁ
    -57վળʹ΋
    ػցֶशΛ
    -57Λ࢖͏͜ͱͰɺࡒ຿ձܭʴܖ
    ໿਺Ͱ͸ݟ͑ͮΒ͍௕ظతͳ੒௕
    ੑධՁ΍੒௕ઓུΛཱͯ΍͘͢ͳ
    Δɻ
    ղ໿཰ʹ૬ؔͷߴ͍Τϯήʔδϝ
    ϯτείΞΛఆٛͨ͠ɻ
    

    ͦͷม਺Ͱ͋Δ๚໰ස౓΍ফඅه
    ࣄຊ਺Λ,1*ʹ͍ͯ͠Δɻ
    ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔࣄۀߩݙͷఆྔ
    ධՁ΋ߦ͍ͬͯΔɻ
    

    վળ͢΂͖੒௕υϥΠόʔ͕ಛఆ
    ͞Ε͍ͯΕ͹σʔλαΠΤϯε΋
    XFCΤϯδχΞ΋Ϧιʔε഑෼Λ
    ߟ͑΍͘͢ͳΔɻ
    

    

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16. ࢀߟจݙ
    16
    

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17. ࢀߟจݙ
    17
    w >4VOJM(VQUB%POBME3-FINBOO
    $6450.&34"4"44&54
    +063/"-0'*/5&3"$5*7&."3,&5*/(70-6.&/6.#&3
    8*/5&3IUUQTXXXHTCDPMVNCJBFEVNZHTCGBDVMUZSFTFBSDI
    QVC
    fi
    MFTHVQUB@DVTUPNFSTQEG BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ
    
    w >ᖒل඙
    -JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧIUUQT
    IBDLOJLLFJDPNCMPHBEWFOU@MUW BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ
    
    w >8FC୲౰ऀϑΥʔϥϜ
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆༻ज़ɻ%9
    Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํIUUQTXFCUBOJNQSFTTDPKQF
    BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ
    
    w >(FPSHF,BTUSJOBLJT
    )PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU"DUJPOGPS
    '5SFBEFSTIUUQTNFEJVNDPNGUQSPEVDUUFDIOPMPHZIPXXF
    DBMDVMBUFUIFOFYUCFTUBDUJPOGPSGUSFBEFSTFEBCB BDDFTTFE
    'FCSVBSZ
    
    

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