データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価（LTV）とその改善 / Lifetime Value as Asset Pricing with Data Science

೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾΠϊϕʔγϣϯɾϥϘᖒل඙ σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ׆༻ͨ͠   ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ-57ʣͱͦͷվળ %BUBCSJDLTXFCJOBS"*׆༻ʹΑΔϏδωε՝୊ղܾγϦʔζ$-7ɾ$IVSO෼ੳ 1

ϓϩμΫτϚωʔδϟʔɺݚڀһ ᖒل඙ 2 ೥݄૑ץ w ܦࡁχϡʔεͷ༗ྉߪಡαʔϏε w ໿ສਓͷ༗ྉߪಡऀ w ֹ݄
ԁʢεϚϗ՝ۚͰ͸ ԁʣ w ૑ץҎདྷɺܖ໿਺͸৳ͼଓ͚͍ͯΔ w ͞ΒͳΔ੒௕͕ٻΊΒΕΔ ೔ܦిࢠ൛ w ೥೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾೖࣾ w ։ൃ಺੡ԽɺσʔλδϟʔφϦζϜ w ػցֶशʹΑΔهࣄਪનɺݟग़͠΍ಈըͷࣗ ಈੜ੒ɺը૾ղੳ݁ՌʹΑΔΞϓϦͷ69޲ ্ͳͲ w σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ࢖ͬͨࣄۀઓུͷཱҊ w ܖ໿ܗଶͷݟ௚͠ʹΑΔࣄۀՁ஋޲্

"HFOEB 3 w ࣗݾ঺հ w $-7 -57 w ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ w
ࣄۀՁ஋ධՁ w ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔɺࢪࡦ͝ͱͷܦࡁޮՌͷࢼࢉ w $IVSO෼ੳ w -57ͷվળํ๏

ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ$-7ʣ 4

◼︎ ਓͷސ٬͔ΒಘΒΕΔকདྷ ΩϟογϡϑϩʔͷׂҾݱࡏՁ஋ ◼︎ ӈਤ͸୯७ԽͷͨΊɺ೥ؒͷ࢒ ଘ$-7 $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF 7BMVF ◼︎
ച্͚ͩͰͳ͘ɺ֫ಘඅ༻ͱҡ࣋ අ༻Λߟྀ ◼︎ ຖ݄ͷղ໿ՄೳੑʹΑΓ$BTI JOPVU fl PX͸చݮ͢Δ 5 ֹ݄ʹ࢒ଘ཰Λ͔͚ͨ΋ͷͷ૯࿨͕ɺ   ͦͷސ٬͔ΒকདྷಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔ ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ͕Մೳ αϒεΫܖ໿͸   ۚ༥ࢿ࢈ͦͷ΋ͷ ޿ࠂએ఻අΛ֫ಘඅ༻ɺγεςϜ։ൃඅΛҡ࣋අ༻ͱͯ͠ො՝ɻ ೥཰ͰׂҾɻղ໿཰ʢΞϓϦ՝ۚʣΛͱͯ͠ܭࢉɻ ໿ ԁ

αϒεΫͷ ࣄۀՁ஋ධ Ձʢ-57ʣ ܖ໿਺෼ͷ$-7Λ଍ͤ͹ࣄۀՁ஋ʢ-57ʣʹͳΔ <>$6450.&34"4 "44&54+063/"-0' */5&3"$5*7& ."3,&5*/(70-6.& /6.#&38*/5&3
6 w ্ه͸؆қࣜɻղ໿཰͸ܖ໿͔Βͷܦա݄਺΍σϞάϥʹґଘ͢Δ w ࣮ࡍʹ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱʹ$-7Λܭࢉ͠଍͠߹Θ͍ͤͯΔ ࣄۀՁ஋ -57 = ܖ໿਺ "316 ܧଓظؒ × × ໿ ԁ ສਓ ϲ݄ ղ໿཰͕ຖ݄ҰఆͰͷ࣌ ೥݄࣌఺ ฏۉސ٬୯Ձ $-7k = T ∑ t=1 $BTI'MPXk,t (1 + i)t -57 = N ∑ k=1 $-7k ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱͷ$-7ɺ ͸݄ ʹίϗʔτ ͔ΒಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔɺ ͸ׂҾ཰ $-7k $BTI'MPXk,t t k i $-7

◼︎ কདྷͷऩӹΛߟྀͨ͠ࢦඪ ◼︎ αϒεΫࣄۀͰ͸ղ໿཰ ʢ⁶ܧଓظؒʣ૿ݮͷকདྷ ऩӹ΁ͷӨڹ͕େ͖͍ ◼︎ ੒ख़ظʹֻ͔ࠩͬͨ͠ࣄۀ Ͱ͸ɺղ໿཰վળ͕ࣄۀ੒ ௕ͷ伴ΛѲΔ
◼︎ ސ٬୯ՁΛࢉೖ͢Δ͜ͱ Ͱɺ୯Ձ૿΁ͷҙࣝ෇͚Λ ߦ͏ ◼︎ কདྷͷࣄۀͷ࢟ʹ͍ͭͯͷ ༧ଌਫ਼౓͕ߴ·Δ 7 ࣋ଓతͳ੒௕ʹ͸ɺղ໿཰ͷվળ͕͔ܽͤͳ͍ -57Λҙࣝ͢Δ ॏཁੑ ೥ ݄ ೥ ݄ ೥ ݄ ೥ ݄ ೥ ݄ ສ ສ ສ ສ ສ ສ ສ w্هΑΓɺ੒௕ݶք࣌ͷܖ໿਺ ͱͳΔ w࣮ࡍʹ͸ղ໿཰΍ਃࠐ਺͸݄ʹΑͬͯҟͳΔ 4VCTmax = "DR w 4VCTt+1 − 4VCTt = "DR − w ⋅ 4VCTt ݄ ͷ༗ྉܖ໿਺ ݄࣍ਃࠐ਺ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ   ݄࣍ղ໿཰ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ 4VCTt t "DR w ղ໿཰ͱ೥ؒਃࠐ਺͝ͱͷܖ໿਺ͷਪҠ <>-JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄ ۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧ

ײԠ౓෼ੳ ɹ$IVSO෼ੳΛ༻͍ͨࢪࡦධՁ 8

$IVSO෼ੳͷछྨ 9 ղ໿཰ͷਪҠɺଐੑ͝ ͱͷղ໿཰ͷूܭ ࢪࡦͷɺղ໿཰ʹ༩͑ ΔӨڹͷௐࠪ ఆٛͨ͠είΞʹجͮ ͍ͨࢪࡦͷޮՌͷਪܭ ղ໿཰ͷ೺ѲͷͨΊͷूܭɻ ղ໿཈ࢭΛاਤ࣮͠ࢪͨ͠ࢪࡦ͕
࣮ࡍʹղ໿཈ࢭͨ͠ྔΛଌΔɻͦ ͷࢪࡦʹ౰ͨͬͨϢʔβʔͷɺ࣮ ࢪલޙͷσʔλΛ༻͍Δɻ ࣮ࡍͷղ໿ߦಈʹݱΕΔ·Ͱ͸ɺ ਺ϲ݄ఔ౓଴ͭඞཁ͕͋Δɻ "#ςετ΍܏޲είΞ෼ੳΛߦ͏ ͷ͕ཧ૝͕ͩɺίετ͕͔͔Δͷ ͕೉఺ɻ ղ໿཰ͱ૬ؔͷ͋ΔΤϯήʔδϝ ϯτείΞΛఆٛ͠ɺࢪࡦޮՌ ͸ɺΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞࣗମ ΍ͦͷม਺ͷ૿ݮΛݟͯ൑அ͢ Δɻ ೔ܦిࢠ൛ͷείΞ͸๚໰ස౓΍ Ӿཡهࣄຊ਺͕ม਺ɻ ࠓճ͓࿩͢͠Δ͜ͱ

1SPEVDU5FDIͷࢪࡦ͸ɺࣄۀߩݙΛධՁ͠ʹ͍͘ എܠײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ 10 ࣄۀՁ஋ (LTV) ܧଓ݄਺ F V ๚໰ස౓ ফඅهࣄຊ਺
ඇࣗൃత   ղ໿཈ࢭ Net ARPPU ηοτ঎඼ߪೖ਺ ൢചख਺ྉ ೔ܦIDܾࡁൺ཰ ిࢠ൛ϓϥϯൺ཰ ՝ۚऀ਺ ৽نདྷ๚ऀ ࠶དྷ๚ऀ ແྉମݧਃࠐ ՝ۚ཰ ίϯςϯπϚʔέ ϓϩϞʔγϣϯ ϓϩμΫτ ن໛ͷ֦େ ސ٬֫ಘ ղ໿཈ࢭ ൺֱత༰қ ൺֱత༰қ ࠔ೉ ࣄۀߩݙ౓ͷ   ධՁ ໨త νʔϜ ^ ^ ^ ೔ܦిࢠ൛αϒεΫࣄۀʢݸਓʣͷ,1*πϦʔ ॳճ՝ۚ཰ ηοτ঎඼୯Ձ MAU

◼︎ සൟʹདྷ๚͠ଟ͘ͷهࣄΛ ಡΉϢʔβʔͷղ໿཰͸௿ ͍ ◼︎ ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞΛ ఆΊɺΤϯήʔδ֊ڃ͝ͱ ʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ͠೺Ѳ ◼︎ -JHIUϢʔβʔʹΤϯήʔ
δ͍ͨͩ͘͜ͱ͕ඞཁ 11 είΞʹج͍ͮͨϢʔβʔ෼ྨΛߦ͍ɺ.JEEMFҎ্ͷϢʔβʔͷׂ ߹Λ,1*ͷҰͭʹઃఆɻ w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ Λఆٛ w '͸'SFRVFODZʢ๚໰ස౓ʣ w 7͸7PMVNFʢফඅهࣄຊ਺ʣ w ͝ͱͷ෼෍ΛجʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ F V log2 (F V + 1) ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ $IVSO෼ੳͱ   Τϯήʔδϝϯτ   είΞ 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13 ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ͱղ໿཰ log2 (F V + 1) -JHIU .JEEMF -PZBM 4VQFS-PZBM <>೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆ ༻ज़ɻ%9Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํ

ํ๏ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ ͷଟՉ͕ղ໿͠΍͢ ͞Λද͢ w ֊ڃ಺ͷ෼෍͕Ұ༷ͩͱԾఆ͢Δͱɺ' 7͕૿ݮ ͨ࣌͠ʹ ͷ෼෍͕εϥΠυ͢ΔྔΛ
ܭࢉͰ͖Δ F V log2 (F V + 1) ࢪࡦͷ' 7վળྔΛݟࠐΉ͜ͱͰ $IVSOվળɺച্ߩݙΛਪఆ͢Δ 12 ༷ʑͳಛ௃ྔͷ͏ͪɺղ໿΁ͷӨ ڹ͕େ͖͍ͷ͸'ͱ7 w ֊ڃ͝ͱͷղ໿཰͸ɺ֓Ͷ୯ௐݮগͱ ͳΔ w ͕૿͑ΔͱɺҰఆ਺͕࣍ͷ֊ڃʹεϥΠυ͢Δ log2 (F V + 1) F V ࠜڌײԠ౓෼ੳ 10% ར༻ਓ਺ͷׂ߹ ๚໰ස౓ × 1.2 ফඅهࣄຊ਺ × 1.1 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13 ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ʢݱࡏͱ26.9%վળʣͱղ໿཰ log2 (F V + 1) 1೥ؒͷച্૿ 0.15ԯԁ

-57վળҊͷྫࣔ 13

◼︎ ػೳར༻͝ͱʹɺސ٬ͷΤϯ ήʔδϝϯτ͕ҟͳΔ ◼︎ ͞ΒʹΤϯήʔδ͞ΕΔΑ͏ ʹɺػೳΛਪનදࣔ͢Δ࢓૊ Έ ◼︎ ᶃػೳ͝ͱͷΤϯήʔδଟՉ ᶄϢʔβʔ͕ػೳΛ࢖͍࢝Ί
Δ֬཰ͦΕͧΕΛਪఆ͢ΔϞ σϧΛ࡞੒ ◼︎ %BUBCSJDLT্ͰϞσϧΛߏங த 14 ʢࣄྫ঺հʣ'JOBODJBM5JNFTͰ͸ػೳͷಡऀΤϯήʔδϝ ϯτʹ༩͑ΔӨڹͱɺͦͷػೳͷར༻։࢝֬཰Λܭࢉ͠ػೳ ͷਪનදࣔΛߦͬͨ <>)PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU "DUJPOGPS'5SFBEFST ͞ΒͳΔΤϯήʔδͷͨΊ ͷػೳͷਪન /FYU#FTU "DUJPOʢ/#"ʣ

·ͱΊ 15 -57ܭࢉ͸   ܖ໿ͷࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ $IVSO෼ੳΛ࢖ͬͨ ࢪࡦධՁ -57վળʹ΋ ػցֶशΛ -57Λ࢖͏͜ͱͰɺࡒ຿ձܭʴܖ
໿਺Ͱ͸ݟ͑ͮΒ͍௕ظతͳ੒௕ ੑධՁ΍੒௕ઓུΛཱͯ΍͘͢ͳ Δɻ ղ໿཰ʹ૬ؔͷߴ͍Τϯήʔδϝ ϯτείΞΛఆٛͨ͠ɻ   ͦͷม਺Ͱ͋Δ๚໰ස౓΍ফඅه ࣄຊ਺Λ,1*ʹ͍ͯ͠Δɻ ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔࣄۀߩݙͷఆྔ ධՁ΋ߦ͍ͬͯΔɻ   վળ͢΂͖੒௕υϥΠόʔ͕ಛఆ ͞Ε͍ͯΕ͹σʔλαΠΤϯε΋ XFCΤϯδχΞ΋Ϧιʔε഑෼Λ ߟ͑΍͘͢ͳΔɻ  

ࢀߟจݙ 16

ࢀߟจݙ 17 w <>4VOJM(VQUB%POBME3-FINBOO $6450.&34"4"44&54 +063/"-0'*/5&3"$5*7&."3,&5*/(70-6.&/6.#&3 8*/5&3IUUQTXXXHTCDPMVNCJBFEVNZHTCGBDVMUZSFTFBSDI QVC fi
MFTHVQUB@DVTUPNFSTQEG BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ w <>ᖒل඙ -JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧIUUQT IBDLOJLLFJDPNCMPHBEWFOU@MUW BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ w <>8FC୲౰ऀϑΥʔϥϜ ೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆༻ज़ɻ%9 Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํIUUQTXFCUBOJNQSFTTDPKQF BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ w <>(FPSHF,BTUSJOBLJT )PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU"DUJPOGPS '5SFBEFSTIUUQTNFEJVNDPNGUQSPEVDUUFDIOPMPHZIPXXF DBMDVMBUFUIFOFYUCFTUBDUJPOGPSGUSFBEFSTFEBCB BDDFTTFE 'FCSVBSZ

データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価（LTV）とその改善 / Lifetime Valu...

データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価（LTV）とその改善 / Lifetime Value as Asset Pricing with Data Science

SAWA, Norihiko

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೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾΠϊϕʔγϣϯɾϥϘᖒل඙ σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ׆༻ͨ͠   ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ-57ʣͱͦͷվળ %BUBCSJDLTXFCJOBS"*׆༻ʹΑΔϏδωε՝୊ղܾγϦʔζ$-7ɾ$IVSO෼ੳ 1

ϓϩμΫτϚωʔδϟʔɺݚڀһ ᖒل඙ 2 ೥݄૑ץ w ܦࡁχϡʔεͷ༗ྉߪಡαʔϏε w ໿ສਓͷ༗ྉߪಡऀ w ֹ݄

"HFOEB 3 w ࣗݾ঺հ w $-7 -57 w ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ w

ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ$-7ʣ 4

◼︎ ਓͷސ٬͔ΒಘΒΕΔকདྷ ΩϟογϡϑϩʔͷׂҾݱࡏՁ஋ ◼︎ ӈਤ͸୯७ԽͷͨΊɺ೥ؒͷ࢒ ଘ$-7 $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF 7BMVF ◼︎

αϒεΫͷ ࣄۀՁ஋ධ Ձʢ-57ʣ ܖ໿਺෼ͷ$-7Λ଍ͤ͹ࣄۀՁ஋ʢ-57ʣʹͳΔ <>$6450.&34"4 "44&54+063/"-0' /5&3"$57& ."3,&5/(70-6.& /6.#&38/5&3

◼︎ কདྷͷऩӹΛߟྀͨ͠ࢦඪ ◼︎ αϒεΫࣄۀͰ͸ղ໿཰ ʢ⁶ܧଓظؒʣ૿ݮͷকདྷ ऩӹ΁ͷӨڹ͕େ͖͍ ◼︎ ੒ख़ظʹֻ͔ࠩͬͨ͠ࣄۀ Ͱ͸ɺղ໿཰վળ͕ࣄۀ੒ ௕ͷ伴ΛѲΔ

ײԠ౓෼ੳ ɹ$IVSO෼ੳΛ༻͍ͨࢪࡦධՁ 8

$IVSO෼ੳͷछྨ 9 ղ໿཰ͷਪҠɺଐੑ͝ ͱͷղ໿཰ͷूܭ ࢪࡦͷɺղ໿཰ʹ༩͑ ΔӨڹͷௐࠪ ఆٛͨ͠είΞʹجͮ ͍ͨࢪࡦͷޮՌͷਪܭ ղ໿཰ͷ೺ѲͷͨΊͷूܭɻ ղ໿཈ࢭΛاਤ࣮͠ࢪͨ͠ࢪࡦ͕

1SPEVDU5FDIͷࢪࡦ͸ɺࣄۀߩݙΛධՁ͠ʹ͍͘ എܠײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ 10 ࣄۀՁ஋ (LTV) ܧଓ݄਺ F V ๚໰ස౓ ফඅهࣄຊ਺

◼︎ සൟʹདྷ๚͠ଟ͘ͷهࣄΛ ಡΉϢʔβʔͷղ໿཰͸௿ ͍ ◼︎ ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞΛ ఆΊɺΤϯήʔδ֊ڃ͝ͱ ʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ͠೺Ѳ ◼︎ -JHIUϢʔβʔʹΤϯήʔ

ํ๏ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ ͷଟՉ͕ղ໿͠΍͢ ͞Λද͢ w ֊ڃ಺ͷ෼෍͕Ұ༷ͩͱԾఆ͢Δͱɺ' 7͕૿ݮ ͨ࣌͠ʹ ͷ෼෍͕εϥΠυ͢ΔྔΛ

-57վળҊͷྫࣔ 13

◼︎ ػೳར༻͝ͱʹɺސ٬ͷΤϯ ήʔδϝϯτ͕ҟͳΔ ◼︎ ͞ΒʹΤϯήʔδ͞ΕΔΑ͏ ʹɺػೳΛਪનදࣔ͢Δ࢓૊ Έ ◼︎ ᶃػೳ͝ͱͷΤϯήʔδଟՉ ᶄϢʔβʔ͕ػೳΛ࢖͍࢝Ί

·ͱΊ 15 -57ܭࢉ͸   ܖ໿ͷࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ $IVSO෼ੳΛ࢖ͬͨ ࢪࡦධՁ -57վળʹ΋ ػցֶशΛ -57Λ࢖͏͜ͱͰɺࡒ຿ձܭʴܖ

ࢀߟจݙ 16

ࢀߟจݙ 17 w <>4VOJM(VQUB%POBME3-FINBOO $6450.&34"4"44&54 +063/"-0'/5&3"$57&."3,&5/(70-6.&/6.#&3 8/5&3IUUQTXXXHTCDPMVNCJBFEVNZHTCGBDVMUZSFTFBSDI QVC fi