Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価(LTV)とその改善 / Lifetime Value as Asset Pricing with Data Science

データサイエンスを活用した契約資産価値評価(LTV)とその改善 / Lifetime Value as Asset Pricing with Data Science

SAWA, Norihiko

February 25, 2022
Tweet

More Decks by SAWA, Norihiko

Other Decks in Business

Transcript

  1. ೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾΠϊϕʔγϣϯɾϥϘᖒل඙
    σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ׆༻ͨ͠

    ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ-57ʣͱͦͷվળ
    %BUBCSJDLTXFCJOBS"*׆༻ʹΑΔϏδωε՝୊ղܾγϦʔζ$-7ɾ$IVSO෼ੳ
    1

    View Slide

  2. ϓϩμΫτϚωʔδϟʔɺݚڀһ
    ᖒل඙
    2
    ೥݄૑ץ
    w ܦࡁχϡʔεͷ༗ྉߪಡαʔϏε
    w ໿ສਓͷ༗ྉߪಡऀ
    w ֹ݄ ԁʢεϚϗ՝ۚͰ͸ ԁʣ
    w ૑ץҎདྷɺܖ໿਺͸৳ͼଓ͚͍ͯΔ
    w ͞ΒͳΔ੒௕͕ٻΊΒΕΔ
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛
    w ೥೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉࣾೖࣾ
    w ։ൃ಺੡ԽɺσʔλδϟʔφϦζϜ
    w ػցֶशʹΑΔهࣄਪનɺݟग़͠΍ಈըͷࣗ
    ಈੜ੒ɺը૾ղੳ݁ՌʹΑΔΞϓϦͷ69޲
    ্ͳͲ
    w σʔλαΠΤϯεΛ࢖ͬͨࣄۀઓུͷཱҊ
    w ܖ໿ܗଶͷݟ௚͠ʹΑΔࣄۀՁ஋޲্

    View Slide

  3. "HFOEB
    3
    w ࣗݾ঺հ
    w $-7 -57
    w ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ
    w ࣄۀՁ஋ධՁ
    w ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔɺࢪࡦ͝ͱͷܦࡁޮՌͷࢼࢉ
    w $IVSO෼ੳ
    w -57ͷվળํ๏

    View Slide

  4. ܖ໿ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁʢ$-7ʣ
    4

    View Slide

  5. ◼︎
    ਓͷސ٬͔ΒಘΒΕΔকདྷ
    ΩϟογϡϑϩʔͷׂҾݱࡏՁ஋
    ◼︎
    ӈਤ͸୯७ԽͷͨΊɺ೥ؒͷ࢒
    ଘ$-7 $VTUPNFS-JGFUJNF
    7BMVF

    ◼︎
    ച্͚ͩͰͳ͘ɺ֫ಘඅ༻ͱҡ࣋
    අ༻Λߟྀ
    ◼︎
    ຖ݄ͷղ໿ՄೳੑʹΑΓ$BTI
    JOPVU
    fl
    PX͸చݮ͢Δ
    5
    ֹ݄ʹ࢒ଘ཰Λ͔͚ͨ΋ͷͷ૯࿨͕ɺ

    ͦͷސ٬͔ΒকདྷಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔ
    ࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ͕Մೳ
    αϒεΫܖ໿͸

    ۚ༥ࢿ࢈ͦͷ΋ͷ
    ޿ࠂએ఻අΛ֫ಘඅ༻ɺγεςϜ։ൃඅΛҡ࣋අ༻ͱͯ͠ො՝ɻ
    ೥཰ͰׂҾɻղ໿཰ʢΞϓϦ՝ۚʣΛͱͯ͠ܭࢉɻ
    ໿ ԁ

    View Slide

  6. αϒεΫͷ
    ࣄۀՁ஋ධ
    Ձʢ-57ʣ
    ܖ໿਺෼ͷ$-7Λ଍ͤ͹ࣄۀՁ஋ʢ-57ʣʹͳΔ
    >$6450.&34"4
    "44&54+063/"-0'
    */5&3"$5*7&
    ."3,&5*/(70-6.&
    /6.#&38*/5&3

    6
    w ্ه͸؆қࣜɻղ໿཰͸ܖ໿͔Βͷܦա݄਺΍σϞάϥʹґଘ͢Δ
    w ࣮ࡍʹ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱʹ$-7Λܭࢉ͠଍͠߹Θ͍ͤͯΔ
    ࣄۀՁ஋ -57

    = ܖ໿਺
    "316 ܧଓظؒ
    × ×
    ໿ ԁ ສਓ
    ϲ݄
    ղ໿཰͕ຖ݄ҰఆͰͷ࣌ ೥݄࣌఺
    ฏۉސ٬୯Ձ
    $-7k
    =
    T

    t=1
    $BTI'MPXk,t
    (1 + i)t
    -57 =
    N

    k=1
    $-7k
    ͸ίϗʔτ͝ͱͷ$-7ɺ ͸݄ ʹίϗʔτ ͔ΒಘΒΕΔΩϟογϡϑϩʔɺ ͸ׂҾ཰
    $-7k
    $BTI'MPXk,t
    t k i

    $-7

    View Slide

  7. ◼︎
    কདྷͷऩӹΛߟྀͨ͠ࢦඪ
    ◼︎
    αϒεΫࣄۀͰ͸ղ໿཰
    ʢ⁶ܧଓظؒʣ૿ݮͷকདྷ
    ऩӹ΁ͷӨڹ͕େ͖͍
    ◼︎
    ੒ख़ظʹֻ͔ࠩͬͨ͠ࣄۀ
    Ͱ͸ɺղ໿཰վળ͕ࣄۀ੒
    ௕ͷ伴ΛѲΔ
    ◼︎
    ސ٬୯ՁΛࢉೖ͢Δ͜ͱ
    Ͱɺ୯Ձ૿΁ͷҙࣝ෇͚Λ
    ߦ͏
    ◼︎
    কདྷͷࣄۀͷ࢟ʹ͍ͭͯͷ
    ༧ଌਫ਼౓͕ߴ·Δ
    7
    ࣋ଓతͳ੒௕ʹ͸ɺղ໿཰ͷվળ͕͔ܽͤͳ͍
    -57Λҙࣝ͢Δ
    ॏཁੑ






    ݄

    ݄

    ݄

    ݄

    ݄







    w্هΑΓɺ੒௕ݶք࣌ͷܖ໿਺ ͱͳΔ
    w࣮ࡍʹ͸ղ໿཰΍ਃࠐ਺͸݄ʹΑͬͯҟͳΔ
    4VCTmax
    =
    "DR
    w
    4VCTt+1
    − 4VCTt
    = "DR − w ⋅ 4VCTt
    ݄ ͷ༗ྉܖ໿਺
    ݄࣍ਃࠐ਺ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ

    ݄࣍ղ໿཰ʢҰఆͱ͢Δʣ
    4VCTt
    t
    "DR
    w
    ղ໿཰ͱ೥ؒਃࠐ਺͝ͱͷܖ໿਺ͷਪҠ
    >-JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄ
    ۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧ

    View Slide

  8. ײԠ౓෼ੳ
    ɹ$IVSO෼ੳΛ༻͍ͨࢪࡦධՁ
    8

    View Slide

  9. $IVSO෼ੳͷछྨ
    9
    ղ໿཰ͷਪҠɺଐੑ͝
    ͱͷղ໿཰ͷूܭ
    ࢪࡦͷɺղ໿཰ʹ༩͑
    ΔӨڹͷௐࠪ
    ఆٛͨ͠είΞʹجͮ
    ͍ͨࢪࡦͷޮՌͷਪܭ
    ղ໿཰ͷ೺ѲͷͨΊͷूܭɻ ղ໿཈ࢭΛاਤ࣮͠ࢪͨ͠ࢪࡦ͕
    ࣮ࡍʹղ໿཈ࢭͨ͠ྔΛଌΔɻͦ
    ͷࢪࡦʹ౰ͨͬͨϢʔβʔͷɺ࣮
    ࢪલޙͷσʔλΛ༻͍Δɻ
    ࣮ࡍͷղ໿ߦಈʹݱΕΔ·Ͱ͸ɺ
    ਺ϲ݄ఔ౓଴ͭඞཁ͕͋Δɻ
    "#ςετ΍܏޲είΞ෼ੳΛߦ͏
    ͷ͕ཧ૝͕ͩɺίετ͕͔͔Δͷ
    ͕೉఺ɻ
    ղ໿཰ͱ૬ؔͷ͋ΔΤϯήʔδϝ
    ϯτείΞΛఆٛ͠ɺࢪࡦޮՌ
    ͸ɺΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞࣗମ
    ΍ͦͷม਺ͷ૿ݮΛݟͯ൑அ͢
    Δɻ
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛ͷείΞ͸๚໰ස౓΍
    Ӿཡهࣄຊ਺͕ม਺ɻ
    ࠓճ͓࿩͢͠Δ͜ͱ

    View Slide

  10. 1SPEVDU5FDIͷࢪࡦ͸ɺࣄۀߩݙΛධՁ͠ʹ͍͘
    എܠײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    10
    ࣄۀՁ஋ (LTV)
    ܧଓ݄਺ F V
    ๚໰ස౓
    ফඅهࣄຊ਺
    ඇࣗൃత

    ղ໿཈ࢭ
    Net ARPPU ηοτ঎඼ߪೖ਺
    ൢചख਺ྉ
    ೔ܦIDܾࡁൺ཰
    ిࢠ൛ϓϥϯൺ཰
    ՝ۚऀ਺
    ৽نདྷ๚ऀ
    ࠶དྷ๚ऀ
    ແྉମݧਃࠐ
    ՝ۚ཰
    ίϯςϯπϚʔέ
    ϓϩϞʔγϣϯ
    ϓϩμΫτ
    ن໛ͷ֦େ
    ސ٬֫ಘ
    ղ໿཈ࢭ
    ൺֱత༰қ
    ൺֱత༰қ
    ࠔ೉
    ࣄۀߩݙ౓ͷ

    ධՁ
    ໨త
    νʔϜ
    ^
    ^
    ^
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛αϒεΫࣄۀʢݸਓʣͷ,1*πϦʔ
    ॳճ՝ۚ཰
    ηοτ঎඼୯Ձ
    MAU

    View Slide

  11. ◼︎
    සൟʹདྷ๚͠ଟ͘ͷهࣄΛ
    ಡΉϢʔβʔͷղ໿཰͸௿
    ͍
    ◼︎
    ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞΛ
    ఆΊɺΤϯήʔδ֊ڃ͝ͱ
    ʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ͠೺Ѳ
    ◼︎
    -JHIUϢʔβʔʹΤϯήʔ
    δ͍ͨͩ͘͜ͱ͕ඞཁ
    11
    είΞʹج͍ͮͨϢʔβʔ෼ྨΛߦ͍ɺ.JEEMFҎ্ͷϢʔβʔͷׂ
    ߹Λ,1*ͷҰͭʹઃఆɻ
    w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ Λఆٛ
    w '͸'SFRVFODZʢ๚໰ස౓ʣ
    w 7͸7PMVNFʢফඅهࣄຊ਺ʣ
    w ͝ͱͷ෼෍ΛجʹϢʔβʔΛ෼ྨ
    F V
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    $IVSO෼ੳͱ

    Τϯήʔδϝϯτ

    είΞ
    0
    30,000
    60,000
    90,000
    120,000
    g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13
    ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ͱղ໿཰
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    -JHIU .JEEMF -PZBM 4VQFS-PZBM
    >೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆
    ༻ज़ɻ%9Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํ

    View Slide

  12. ํ๏ײԠ౓෼ੳͱࢪࡦධՁ
    w ΤϯήʔδϝϯτείΞ ͷଟՉ͕ղ໿͠΍͢
    ͞Λද͢
    w ֊ڃ಺ͷ෼෍͕Ұ༷ͩͱԾఆ͢Δͱɺ' 7͕૿ݮ
    ͨ࣌͠ʹ ͷ෼෍͕εϥΠυ͢ΔྔΛ
    ܭࢉͰ͖Δ
    F V
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    ࢪࡦͷ' 7վળྔΛݟࠐΉ͜ͱͰ
    $IVSOվળɺച্ߩݙΛਪఆ͢Δ
    12
    ༷ʑͳಛ௃ྔͷ͏ͪɺղ໿΁ͷӨ
    ڹ͕େ͖͍ͷ͸'ͱ7
    w ֊ڃ͝ͱͷղ໿཰͸ɺ֓Ͷ୯ௐݮগͱ
    ͳΔ
    w ͕૿͑ΔͱɺҰఆ਺͕࣍ͷ֊ڃʹεϥΠυ͢Δ
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    F V
    ࠜڌײԠ౓෼ੳ
    10%
    ར༻ਓ਺ͷׂ߹ ๚໰ස౓
    × 1.2
    ফඅهࣄຊ਺
    × 1.1
    0
    30,000
    60,000
    90,000
    120,000
    g0 g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 g09 g10 g11 g12 g13
    ֊ڃ͝ͱͷਓ਺ʢݱࡏͱ26.9%վળʣͱղ໿཰
    log2
    (F V + 1)
    1೥ؒͷച্૿
    0.15ԯԁ

    View Slide

  13. -57վળҊͷྫࣔ
    13

    View Slide

  14. ◼︎
    ػೳར༻͝ͱʹɺސ٬ͷΤϯ
    ήʔδϝϯτ͕ҟͳΔ
    ◼︎
    ͞ΒʹΤϯήʔδ͞ΕΔΑ͏
    ʹɺػೳΛਪનදࣔ͢Δ࢓૊
    Έ
    ◼︎
    ᶃػೳ͝ͱͷΤϯήʔδଟՉ
    ᶄϢʔβʔ͕ػೳΛ࢖͍࢝Ί
    Δ֬཰ͦΕͧΕΛਪఆ͢ΔϞ
    σϧΛ࡞੒
    ◼︎
    %BUBCSJDLT্ͰϞσϧΛߏங

    14
    ʢࣄྫ঺հʣ'JOBODJBM5JNFTͰ͸ػೳͷಡऀΤϯήʔδϝ
    ϯτʹ༩͑ΔӨڹͱɺͦͷػೳͷར༻։࢝֬཰Λܭࢉ͠ػೳ
    ͷਪનදࣔΛߦͬͨ
    >)PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU
    "DUJPOGPS'5SFBEFST
    ͞ΒͳΔΤϯήʔδͷͨΊ
    ͷػೳͷਪન
    /FYU#FTU
    "DUJPOʢ/#"ʣ

    View Slide

  15. ·ͱΊ
    15
    -57ܭࢉ͸

    ܖ໿ͷࢿ࢈Ձ஋ධՁ
    $IVSO෼ੳΛ࢖ͬͨ
    ࢪࡦධՁ
    -57վળʹ΋
    ػցֶशΛ
    -57Λ࢖͏͜ͱͰɺࡒ຿ձܭʴܖ
    ໿਺Ͱ͸ݟ͑ͮΒ͍௕ظతͳ੒௕
    ੑධՁ΍੒௕ઓུΛཱͯ΍͘͢ͳ
    Δɻ
    ղ໿཰ʹ૬ؔͷߴ͍Τϯήʔδϝ
    ϯτείΞΛఆٛͨ͠ɻ

    ͦͷม਺Ͱ͋Δ๚໰ස౓΍ফඅه
    ࣄຊ਺Λ,1*ʹ͍ͯ͠Δɻ
    ײԠ౓෼ੳʹΑΔࣄۀߩݙͷఆྔ
    ධՁ΋ߦ͍ͬͯΔɻ

    վળ͢΂͖੒௕υϥΠόʔ͕ಛఆ
    ͞Ε͍ͯΕ͹σʔλαΠΤϯε΋
    XFCΤϯδχΞ΋Ϧιʔε഑෼Λ
    ߟ͑΍͘͢ͳΔɻ

    View Slide

  16. ࢀߟจݙ
    16

    View Slide

  17. ࢀߟจݙ
    17
    w >4VOJM(VQUB%POBME3-FINBOO
    $6450.&34"4"44&54
    +063/"-0'*/5&3"$5*7&."3,&5*/(70-6.&/6.#&3
    8*/5&3IUUQTXXXHTCDPMVNCJBFEVNZHTCGBDVMUZSFTFBSDI
    QVC
    fi
    [email protected] BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ

    w >ᖒل඙
    -JGFUJNF7BMVF೔ܦిࢠ൛Ͱͷࣄۀ໨ඪͷ؅ཧIUUQT
    [email protected] BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ

    w >8FC୲౰ऀϑΥʔϥϜ
    ೔ܦిࢠ൛Λ੒௕ʹಋ͍ͨσʔλ׆༻ज़ɻ%9
    Λ્Ήͭͷนͱ৐Γӽ͑ํIUUQTXFCUBOJNQSFTTDPKQF
    BDDFTTFE'FCSVBSZ

    w >(FPSHF,BTUSJOBLJT
    )PXXFDBMDVMBUFUIF/FYU#FTU"DUJPOGPS
    '5SFBEFSTIUUQTNFEJVNDPNGUQSPEVDUUFDIOPMPHZIPXXF
    DBMDVMBUFUIFOFYUCFTUBDUJPOGPSGUSFBEFSTFEBCB BDDFTTFE
    'FCSVBSZ

    View Slide