ICU 149 Teleconference Support Material

Material for the ICU 149 teleconference (Tuesday 5th Feb. 2013, 12h30 NZ time)

Transcript

1. Island  Climate  Update  149   Forecast  period:   February–  April  2013   Teleconference  Tuesday.  5th  of  February  2013     (12:30  PM  NZ  Cme)   5/02/13   1  
2. 1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecCon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (January  2012)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situaCon  and  forecast     3)  Other  indicators  (MJO,  SAM  …)     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     5/02/13   2   Outline    
3. 1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec<on)  and  SST  in  the  SW  Pacific   5/02/13   3  
4. Rainfall  anomalies  and  averages    (TRMM)     5/02/13   4  
5. NOAA  OLR  Anomalies   5/02/13   5   http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml
6. SST  anomalies  December  2012   SST  anomalies  January  2013   5/02/13   6  
7. 2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa<on  and  forecast     5/02/13   7  
8. SST  NINO  INDICES   5/02/13   Datasource  =  BoM  (hYp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   8  
9. The  ENSO  Precipita<on  Index  (ESPI)  for  the  last  30  days  (to  3  Feb.  2013)  is  -­‐0.82     SOI  and  ESPI  INDICES   5/02/13   hYp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html   9  
10. Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   5/02/13   10  
11. Ocean  sub-­‐surface  and  heat  content  anomalies     5/02/13   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ jsdisplay/ 11   hYp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml  
12. ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       5/02/13   12   Climate Model or Group FMA 2012/13 MJJ 2013 ASO 2013 POAMA2.4 (Australia) Neutral() Neutral)( Neutral) ECMWF (EU) Neutral) Neutral) Unavailable) EuroSIP (EU) Neutral) Neutral) Unavailable) LDEO5 (USA) Neutral) Neutral) Neutral) NCEP CFS (USA) Neutral) Neutral) Neutral) Met Office (UK) Neutral) Neutral Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Neutral Neutral Neutral) NASA-GMAO (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral JMA (Japan) Neutral Neutral Unavailable) FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral Neutral Neutral) ) CPC CCA (USA) Neutral) Neutral) Neutral) NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral) Neutral Neutral SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral) Neutral) Unavailable) CLIPER (USA) Neutral) Neutral)) Neutral) Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral) Neutral Neutral)
13. 3)  Other  diagnos<cs  and  forecasts  (MJO,  SAM  …)     5/02/13   13  
14. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Monitoring  (BoM)   5/02/13   hYp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/  or  hYp://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/     14  
15. Madden  Julian  Oscilla<on  Dynamical  Forecast  (CPC)   5/02/13   hYp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast     15  
16. Southern  Annular  Mode  (SAM)   5/02/13   hYp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml     16  
17. 5)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   5/02/13   17  
18. 5/02/13   18   JFM$2013$ FMA$2013$ ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
19. 5/02/13   19   METPI  rainfall  results   February - April 2013 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Fiji 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High FSM 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Niue 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Vanuatu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuvalu 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Kiribati (Western) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tokelau 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 45 30 25 BELOW Moderate-High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in
20. 6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   5/02/13   20  
21. 5/02/13   21   Jan.  –  Mar.  2013   Feb.  –  Apr.  2013  
22. 5/02/13   22   METPI  SST  results   February - April 2013 ICU SST Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTCOME CONFIDENCE Papua New Guinea 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Solomon Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Fiji 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Niue 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Tonga 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Vanuatu 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Northern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Cook Islands (Southern) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Kiribati (Western) 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Samoa 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuamotu Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Tuvalu 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Marquesas 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate Kiribati (Eastern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate