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ICU 167 support material
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Nicolas Fauchereau
July 31, 2014
Science
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53
ICU 167 support material
Preliminary support material for the ICU 167 (August - October 2014) teleconference
Nicolas Fauchereau
July 31, 2014
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Transcript
Island Climate Update 167 Forecast period: August –
October 2014 Teleconference Friday 1st of August 2014 (11:30 AM NZ Bme) 1/08/14 1
1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecBon, circulaBon and SST
anomalies last month (July 2014) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaBon and forecast 3) Madden-‐Julian OscillaBon (MJO) diagnosBcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 1/08/14 2 Outline
1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec<on) and SST in the SW Pacific
1/08/14 3
Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM) 1/08/14 4
1/08/14 5
1/08/14 6 • Well below = < 40
% of normal • Below = between 40 and 80 % • Normal = between 80 and 120 % • Above = between 120 and 160 % • Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)
1/08/14 7 Circula<on anomalies: Geopoten<al at 1000hPa and
wind
SST anomalies June 2014 SST anomalies July 2014
1/08/14 8
2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa<on and forecast
1/08/14 9
SOI and SST NINO INDICES 1/08/14 Datasource =
BoM (h_p://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10
The ENSO Precipita<on Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days
(30 June) is 0.56 (was -‐0.15 last month) SOI and ESPI INDICES 1/08/14 h_p://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/thirty_day.html 11
Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 1/08/14
12
Ocean sub-‐surface temp anomalies (TAO) 1/08/14 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13
h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml
1/08/14 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-‐10/ wksl_anm.gif
Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
1/08/14 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-‐10/ wksl_anm.gif
Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies
ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal
Guidance) 1/08/14 16
3) MJO diagnos<cs and forecasts 1/08/14 17
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Monitoring (BoM) 1/08/14 h_p://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ or
h_p://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ 18
Madden Julian Oscilla<on Dynamical Forecast (CPC) 1/08/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
19
Madden Julian Oscilla<on sta<s<cal Forecast (CPC) 1/08/14 h_p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
20
4) METPI Rainfall forecasts 1/08/14 21
1/08/14 22
1/08/14 23 METPI rainfall results
1/08/14 24 METPI rainfall results
6) METPI SST forecasts 1/08/14 25
1/08/14 26 SST anomalies July 2014