Managing risk and uncertainty

D14100f65d9e91376e8ace76fe23749f?s=47 Nik Silver
September 23, 2016

Managing risk and uncertainty

In our projects and business we are often presented with risks that are difficult to deal with constructively. Here we take a look at why that is and how to think about such problems more creatively. First presented internally to FreeAgent on 23 September 2016.

D14100f65d9e91376e8ace76fe23749f?s=128

Nik Silver

September 23, 2016
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Transcript

  1. Managing risk and uncertainty Nik Silver nik@niksilver.com

  2. The problem •Gantt charts ⟹ Product backlog •Risk register ⟹

    ???
  3. Risk register Description Likelihood Impact Total Competitor launches in Germany

    first 25% £400,000 £100,000 Hiring problems 75% £250,000 £187,500 Fail security audit 20% £80,000 £16,000
  4. So what? •Constrain our view of the problem •Constrain our

    creativity for solutions •Likely inappropriate solutions • Tackle the wrong problem • Hide the real issues
  5. Examples •Our boss might not like it •Competitor may launch

    in Germany first •We miss our hiring targets •There’s a data breach •Failure of client to pay fees •New feature isn’t popular
  6. So what can we do? Look at the problem differently

  7. None
  8. Continuous, not black and white Look for the variability

  9. Risk register Description Likelihood Impact Total Competitor launches in Germany

    first 25% £400,000 £100,000 Hiring problems 75% £250,000 £187,500 Fail security audit 20% £80,000 £16,000
  10. Examples •Our boss might not like it •Competitor may launch

    in Germany first •We miss our hiring targets •There’s a data breach •Failure of client to pay fees •New feature isn’t popular
  11. Think of probability distributions Days ahead of our competitor 0

    50 100 150 -50 -100
  12. Is Labour in crisis? What is the chance of doing

    a deal with Russia? Are lives at risk?
  13. None
  14. Find related dimensions

  15. “Competitor launches first…” Days ahead of our competitor Marketing differentiation

  16. Examples •Our boss might not like it •Competitor may launch

    in Germany first •We miss our hiring targets •There’s a data breach •Failure of client to pay fees •New feature isn’t popular
  17. None
  18. Zoom out “Isn’t this really about…?”

  19. Examples •Our boss might not like it •Competitor may launch

    in Germany first •We miss our hiring targets •There’s a data breach •Failure of client to pay fees •New feature isn’t popular
  20. None
  21. Change the system / Use the system

  22. Use the system •External audit •Recruitment

  23. Change the system •Olde worlde IT “risk”

  24. Examples •Our boss might not like it •Competitor may launch

    in Germany first •We miss our hiring targets •There’s a data breach •Failure of client to pay fees •New feature isn’t popular
  25. None