Chequamegon Bay Projects: Aquatic invertebrate community surveys, forage fish community surveys, ice and streamflow input dynamics (USGS Provisional Data)

Mark Vinson, US Geological Survey, Ashland, WI
Presentation at the Chequamegon Bay Research Symposium, April 14, 2015

Transcript

1. Chequamegon Bay Projects U.S. Geological Survey Lake Superior Biological Station, Ashland, Wisconsin Aquatic invertebrate community surveys Forage fish community surveys Ice and streamflow input dynamics
2. Aquatic invertebrate surveys
3. Historical fish collection sites USGS Provisional Data
4. Historical fish collections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Cumulative number of species Cumulative number of species 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 New species occurrences Year New species occurrences Common Shiner Threespine Stickleback DWS, Eurasian Ruffe PWF Black Bullhead Musky Brook Stickleback 54 species 40 native 7 introduced 7 invasive Introduced: Atlantic Salmon, Brown Trout, Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, Lake Trout, Rainbow Trout, Splake Invasive: Common Carp, Eurasian Ruffe, Rainbow Smelt, Round Goby, Sea Lamprey, Threespine Stickleback, White Perch USGS Provisional Data
5. Historical fish collections 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 Annual number of species Number of individuals per year Annual species accumulation curve 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 Cumualtive species Samples Period of record species accumulation curves Observed Chao2 Species: 54 58.5 USGS Provisional Data
6. Annual fish collection sites 1973-2014 39 locations Summer bottom trawling 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Number of species Year Species 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Total abundance USGS Provisional Data
7. Annual fish collections Population trends Decreases Rainbow Smelt – long-term decline Ninespine Stickleback – episodic Spottail Shiner – long-term decline Trout-perch – long-term decline Emerald Shiner – episodic Mimic Shiner– long-term decline White Sucker – long-term decline Walleye – long-term decline Recent increases Eurasian Ruffe – 2010, 2014 Common Shiner – 2013-14 Bluegill – 2010 and 2014 Yellow perch – 2013 USGS Provisional Data
8. Annual fish collections Abundance trends without Rainbow Smelt Ninespine Stickleback Cisco 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year Total abundance USGS Provisional Data
9. Annual fish collections 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Total abundance Total abundance trends without Rainbow Smelt, Ninespine Stickleback, Cisco USGS Provisional Data
10. Annual fish collections 0 100 200 300 400 500 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year Spottail Shiner 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Rainbow Smelt USGS Provisional Data
11. Annual fish collections 0 300 600 900 1200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year Yellow Perch 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Bluegill USGS Provisional Data
12. Annual fish collections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Eurasian Ruffe 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Fish per hectare Year Emerald Shiner USGS Provisional Data
13. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year Why the decline in forage fish? Data excludes Rainbow Smelt, Ninespine Stickleback, and Cisco USGS Provisional Data
14. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Fish per hectare Year 1993, 1 fish >22” Predators? Data excludes Rainbow Smelt, Ninespine Stickleback, and Cisco USGS Provisional Data
15. A changing ecosystem – ice cover 6 March 2011, 31% Max ice 31% 0 20 40 60 80 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % Photo from UW-Madison, Data from Canadian Ice Service USGS Provisional Data
16. A changing ecosystem – ice cover? 11 March 2012, 3% Max ice 10% 0 20 40 60 80 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % Photo from UW-Madison, Data from Canadian Ice Service USGS Provisional Data
17. A changing ecosystem – ice cover? 13 March 2013, 14% Max ice 37% 0 20 40 60 80 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % Photo from UW-Madison, Data from Canadian Ice Service USGS Provisional Data
18. A changing ecosystem – ice cover? 8 March 2014, 97% Max ice 97% 0 20 40 60 80 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % Photo from UW-Madison, Data from Canadian Ice Service USGS Provisional Data
19. A changing ecosystem – ice cover? 0 20 40 60 80 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % 6 March 2015, 93% Max ice 97% Photo from UW-Madison, Data from Canadian Ice Service USGS Provisional Data
20. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Max ice cover % Year Lake Superior maximum ice cover USGS Provisional Data
22. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
23. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
24. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
25. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
26. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
27. Chequamegon Bay – When does the ice breakup? 103 year record Ice breakup date Local weather Questions: 1) Temporal trend 2) Causation 3) Prediction USGS Provisional Data
28. Chequamegon Bay Ice Breakup Day 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year April 10 April 20 May 1 May 10 April 1 March 26 May 14 USGS Provisional Data
29. Chequamegon Bay Ice Breakup Day 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year April 10 April 20 May 1 May 10 April 1 March 26 May 14 Slope = -0.02 p = 0.4 Mean = Median No increasing variability, but… USGS Provisional Data
30. Chequamegon Bay Ice Breakup Day 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Slope = -0.02 p = 0.4, 0.2 Slope = -0.2 p = 0.12, 0.02 Extreme events, 1 in 25 year events April 10 April 20 May 1 May 10 April 1 March 26 May 14 USGS Provisional Data
31. Relationship between Chequamegon Bay IBD and lake ice cover y = 0.1638x + 100.32 R² = 0.2429 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ice Breakup Day Maximum lake ice cover % April 10 April 20 May 1 May 10 April 1 March 26 May 14 USGS Provisional Data
32. 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 Less ice cover = earlier warming Maximum ice cover, % USGS Lake Superior nearshore fish surveys, Canadian Ice Service Julian date 130 140 150 160 170 180 Corrected T surf (C) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1991-1997 1998-2014 Slope=0.16+0.04; R2=0.67; P<0.0001 Slope=0.05+0.03; R2=0.20; P<0.01 USGS Provisional Data
33. A changing ecosystem – spring storms? 27 June 2012 Has the frequency of spring storm events changed over time? What is the relationship between spring spawning fish recruitment and spring time sediment laden tributary events?
34. 30 April 2013 Ashland Daily Press A changing ecosystem – spring storms?