How do 'Six Americas' of Sarasota Students See Sea Level Rise Uncertainty? Preliminary Results from a Survey of Map Users

Transcript

1. How Do “Six Americas” of Sarasota Students See Sea Level

   Rise Uncertainty? Methods & Preliminary Results for a Survey of Map Users David Retchless Penn State Geography

2. Overview   l  Jus+fica+on   l  Why  sea  level  rise

    maps?   l  Why  uncertainty?   l  Which  audiences?   l  Research  Ques+ons   l  Methods   l  Map   l  Survey   l  Preliminary  Results  

3. Why  sea  level  rise  maps?   l  Popular  climate  change

    communica+on   approach   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   100   Rela%ve  Search  Volume   climate  change   map   sea  level  rise  map   Google Trends

4. Why  sea  level  rise  maps?   l  Making  climate  change

    tangible,  locally  relevant,   personally  meaningful  for  doubNul,  disengaged?   l  Within  geography:  Human  Dimensions,  AAG  Global  Change  in   Local  Places  project   l  Cultural  Cogni+on,  Dan  Kahan:  local  risks  overcome  "compe+ng   poli+cal  brands"   l  Global  Warming's  Six  Americas,  Anthony  Leiserowitz:  most   Americans  are  interested  in  climate  change,  but  believe  it  will   affect  others  more  than  themselves   l  APA  climate  change  report:  discoun+ng,  place  a]achment  –  make   it  local,  relevant  to  everyday  experience  

5. Why  uncertainty?   l  Understanding  sea  level  rise  (SLR)  requires

     understanding  of  uncertainty   l  Spa+al  uncertainty:  DEM  and  +dal  models   l  A]ribute  &  temporal  uncertainty:  How  much  SLR,  how   fast?  

6. Why  uncertainty?   l  Debate  about  effects  of  explicitly  

   communica+ng  climate  change  uncertainty   l  Increase  trust  in  scien+sts,  data  (honest  broker)?   l  Dismiss  or  discount  data  as  unreliable,  specula+ve?  

7. Which  audiences?   l  Climate  change  beliefs   l  Cultural

    cogni+on   of  risk   l  Global  Warming's     Six  Americas  

8. Which  audiences?   l  Hazard  experience   l  Hazard  proximity

     l  Numeracy   l  Map  experience   l  Gender  

9. Research  Ques+ons   l  How  do  maps  of  sea  level

    rise  affect  college   students'  SLR  risk  percep+ons?   l  How  do  risk  percep+ons  and  map  interac+on   vary  across  audiences  with  different:   l  climate  change  beliefs  (“Six  Americas,”  Alarmed-­‐   Dismissive)?   l  hazard  exposure,  demographics,  or  abili+es   l  How  do  these  audiences  interpret  SLR   uncertainty?  

10. Methods:  Map   l  Sarasota  &  southern     Manatee

     coun+es   l  LIDAR  data  from     Florida  Division  of     Emergency     Management   l  5x5  k  raster;     0.6  k  ver+cal     accuracy  

11. Methods:  Map   l  Select  year,  sea  level  rise  amount

     

12. Methods:  Map   l  Choose  view:  flood  depth  or  flood

     probability  

13. Methods:  Map   l  Sidebar  with  links  to  SLR  resources

     

14. Methods:  Map  Interac+on   l  Track  with  Google  Analy+cs  

    l  Map  zoom,  pan   l  SLR  year,     amount,     view   l  Sidebar     link  clicks  

15. Methods:  Survey  Sample   l  College  and  university  students  in

     intro   geography,  earth,  and  environmental  science   courses   l  Distant  hazard:  Penn  State  Students   l  Near  hazard:  Sarasota  Students    

16. Methods:  Survey  Risk  Assessment   l  Pre-­‐  and  post-­‐map  interac+on

     

17. Methods:  Survey  Map  Tasks   l  Es+mate  average  flood  depth,

     probability   l  Evaluate  importance  of  protec+ng  place  

18. Methods:  Survey  Map  Tasks   l  Select  loca+on  with  most

     disrup+ve   expected  impact  

19. Expected  Results   l  Varia+on  in  respondents'  risk  percep+ons  will

     decrease  aker   interac+ng  with  the  map   l  Risk  percep+ons  and  map  interac+on  will  be  higher  among:   l  Those  alarmed  or  concerned  about  climate  change   l  Egalitarian  communitarians   l  Women,  those  with  flood  experience   l  Flood  depth  and  probability  es+mates  will  be  more  accurate   among:   l  Proficient  map  users   l  High  numeracy  respondents   l  Mo+vated  reasoning  will  shape  uncertainty  interpreta+on  based   on  climate  change  beliefs  and  worldviews.  

20. Preliminary  Risk  Percep+on  Results   How much risk do you

    believe sea level rise poses in the Sarasota area?

21. References   l  Associa+on  of  American  Geographers  GCLP  Research  Team.

     2003.  Global   Change  in  Local  Places.  Cambridge,  UK:  Cambridge  University  Press.   l  Kahan,  Dan  M.,  Hank  Jenkins-­‐Smith,  and  DonaldBraman.  2011.  "Cultural   cogni+on  of  scien+fic  consensus."  Journal  of  Risk  Research  14.2  (2011):  147-­‐174.   l  Maibach,  Edward,  Connie  Roser-­‐Renouf,  and  Anthony  Leiserowitz.  2009.  "Global   Warming's  Six  Americas  2009:  An  audience  segmenta+on  analysis."   l  NOAA  Coastal  Services  Center.  2010.  Mapping  Inunda+on  Uncertainty.  h]p:// www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer/assets/pdfs/ Eleva+on_Mapping_Confidence_Methods.pdf  (last  accessed  14  February  2013).   l  Swim,  Janet,  et  al.  2010.  "Psychology  and  global  climate  change:  Addressing  a   mul+-­‐faceted  phenomenon  and  set  of  challenges.  A  report  by  the  American   Psychological  Associa+on’s  task  force  on  the  interface  between  psychology  and   global  climate  change"  (last  accessed  9  April  2014).    
22. None