The Keys to the White House

Slideshow for the classroom to employ Allan Lichtman's 13 "keys" system for predicting the presidential race. For more information about his rationale and philosophy, click here: https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/2024-02/se-8801006.pdf

Click here to make a copy of the student worksheet: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cr-JOFq9HeCBMkO-4GmNOpIL7asThWwOmTK0PKtuZBM/copy?usp=sharing

Transcript

1. The Keys to the White House 20 24
2. 2020: Who is Allan Lichtman? (7:13) “[G]overning, not campaigning, counts in electing the American president…. Debates, advertising, TV appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies … count for virtually nothing on Election Day.”
3. GROUND RULES If 8 or more keys are True, then the incumbent party candidate wins. If 6 or more keys are False, then the challenger party candidate wins.
4. Key #1 MIDTERM GAINS (T/F)
5. Key #2 NO PRIMARY CONTEST (T/F)
6. Key #3 INCUMBENT SEEKING RE- ELECTION (T/F)
7. Key #4 NO THIRD PARTY (T/F)
8. Key #5 STRONG SHORT-TERM ECONOMY (T/F)
9. Key #6 STRONG LONG-TERM ECONOMY (T/F)
10. Key #7 MAJOR POLICY CHANGE (T/F)
11. Key #8 NO SOCIAL UNREST (T/F)
12. Key #9 NO SCANDAL (T/F)
13. Key #10 NO FOREIGN POLICY/ MILITARY FAILURE (T/F)
14. Key #11 MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY/ MILITARY SUCCESS (T/F)
15. Key #12 CHARISMATIC INCUMBENT (T/F)
16. Key #13 UNCHARISMATIC CHALLENGER (T/F)
17. If 8 or more keys are True, then the incumbent party candidate wins. (Kamala Harris)
18. If 6 or more keys are False, then the challenger party candidate wins. (Donald Trump)
19. 13 KEYS TRACKER ALLAN LICHTMAN
20. 13 KEYS TRACKER ALLAN LICHTMAN
21. 13 KEYS TRACKER ALLAN LICHTMAN
22. 9/5/2024 PREDICTION 13 KEYS TRACKER
36. The Keys to the White House 20 24