Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the Future

DockYard hallway talk.

Transcript

1. Black Swans h D O C K YA R D h What they can teach us about the future
2. Lauren Elizabeth Tan @sugarpirate_ @poteto
3. “Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” –Juvenal
4. “A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan” –Juvenal
8. “A rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan” –Juvenal
11. One single observation
12. Black Swan
13. –Donald Rumsfeld “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.”
15. I. Is an outlier II.Has extreme impact III.Retrospective predictability
16. Black Swans explain almost everything
17. World War I
18. I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight
19. The Internet
20. I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight
21. 9/11
22. I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with the benefit of hindsight
23. MH17 / 370
24. Sub-prime mortgage crisis
25. Challenger
26. etc.
27. The Problem of Induction
28. Some men are doctors. Some doctors are tall. Therefore, some men are tall.
29. If it rains, the street will be wet. The street is wet. Therefore, it rained.
30. Half of my foreign neighbors are illegal immigrants. Therefore, half of immigrants come illegally.
31. If P⇒Q and Q⇒R are true Then P→R is true
33. What we think we know
36. What is "normal"?
41. 80/20 https://youtu.be/fCn8zs912OE?t=194
42. 20% of people hold 80% of all wealth
43. 20% of businesses generate 80% of all profits
45. Rule of 70
46. If your savings increase by 10% every year
47. Your savings will double in 7 years
48. How to think about the future
49. Moore's Law
51. Artificial Intelligence?
52. Artificial Super Intelligence
53. Artificial Super Intelligence
54. I. Will be an outlier II.Will have extreme impact III.Probably predictable after the fact
55. How long until computers have the same power as the human brain? https://youtu.be/MRG8eq7miUE
57. How long until computers are twice as smart as humans?
59. At what point were computers half as smart as humans?
61. The future
67. Solar Energy
68. Solar Energy
69. Solar Energy
70. Solar Energy
71. Solar Energy
72. Singularity?
73. fin.