Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the Future
Search
Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
Technology
0
160
Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the Future
DockYard hallway talk.
Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Lauren Tan
See All by Lauren Tan
Just Use Any: js.la Edition
poteto
0
190
TSConf 2019: Just Use Any - How to Win Colleagues and Influence Your Boss
poteto
0
1.7k
DotJS 2018 - Learning to Love Type Systems
poteto
2
2.6k
Swipe Left, Uncaught TypeError: Learning to Love Type Systems
poteto
0
880
EmberFest 2017 - Ember @ Netflix
poteto
1
170
CodeEurope 2017 – Monoliths to Services with Elixir and Phoenix
poteto
13
2k
EmberConf 2017 – Confessions of an Ember Addon Author
poteto
2
600
ElixirConf 2016 - From Front-End to Full Stack with Elixir & Phoenix
poteto
14
2.9k
EmberCamp 2016 – I Can Write My App With No Handlebars: Declarative Templating in Ember
poteto
5
1.1k
Other Decks in Technology
See All in Technology
中央集権体制からDataOpsへの転換 / centralized-to-dataops-transformation
pei0804
7
1.5k
KubeCon EU 2024 : Knative Maintainers Session
salaboy
0
370
ビジネスロジックを「型」で表現するOOPのための関数型DDD / Functional And Type-Safe DDD for OOP
yuitosato
29
12k
TypeScript Quiz (Encraft #12 Frontend Quiz Night)
uhyo
5
440
生成AIの不確実性と向き合うためのオブジェクト指向設計
tkikuchi1002
2
670
オブジェクトのおしゃべり大失敗 メッセージングアンチパターン集 / messaging anti-pattern collection
ytake
0
330
CI/CDがあたりまえの今の時代にAPIテスティングツールに求められていること / CI/CD Test Night #7
k1low
12
2.9k
マイクロサービス環境におけるDB戦略 in DMMプラットフォーム
pospome
11
3k
KubeCon EU: Unlocking new Platform Experiences with Open Interfaces
salaboy
1
370
AWS アーキテクチャクイズ
yuu26
2
700
オブジェクト指向宗教史
tanakahisateru
14
12k
なんで私に登壇依頼が?! ~頼られるエンジニアになるためには~ /
mixi_engineers
PRO
2
200
Featured
See All Featured
A better future with KSS
kneath
230
16k
Cheating the UX When There Is Nothing More to Optimize - PixelPioneers
stephaniewalter
272
12k
Building Better People: How to give real-time feedback that sticks.
wjessup
350
18k
Creating an realtime collaboration tool: Agile Flush - .NET Oxford
marcduiker
11
1.4k
Designing Experiences People Love
moore
135
23k
A designer walks into a library…
pauljervisheath
199
23k
What's new in Ruby 2.0
geeforr
335
31k
Become a Pro
speakerdeck
PRO
8
4.4k
Building Your Own Lightsaber
phodgson
97
5.6k
jQuery: Nuts, Bolts and Bling
dougneiner
57
7.1k
Being A Developer After 40
akosma
56
580k
The World Runs on Bad Software
bkeepers
PRO
60
6.6k
Transcript
Black Swans h D O C K YA R D
h What they can teach us about the future
Lauren Elizabeth Tan @sugarpirate_ @poteto
“Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” –Juvenal
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
None
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
One single observation
Black Swan
–Donald Rumsfeld “There are known knowns. These are things we
know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.”
None
I. Is an outlier II.Has extreme impact III.Retrospective predictability
Black Swans explain almost everything
World War I
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
The Internet
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
9/11
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
MH17 / 370
Sub-prime mortgage crisis
Challenger
etc.
The Problem of Induction
Some men are doctors. Some doctors are tall. Therefore, some
men are tall.
If it rains, the street will be wet. The street
is wet. Therefore, it rained.
Half of my foreign neighbors are illegal immigrants. Therefore, half
of immigrants come illegally.
If P⇒Q and Q⇒R are true Then P→R is true
None
What we think we know
None
None
What is "normal"?
None
None
None
None
80/20 https://youtu.be/fCn8zs912OE?t=194
20% of people hold 80% of all wealth
20% of businesses generate 80% of all profits
None
Rule of 70
If your savings increase by 10% every year
Your savings will double in 7 years
How to think about the future
Moore's Law
None
Artificial Intelligence?
Artificial Super Intelligence
Artificial Super Intelligence
I. Will be an outlier II.Will have extreme impact III.Probably
predictable after the fact
How long until computers have the same power as the
human brain? https://youtu.be/MRG8eq7miUE
2025
How long until computers are twice as smart as humans?
2026
At what point were computers half as smart as humans?
2024
The future
None
None
None
None
None
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Singularity?
fin.