Upgrade to Pro
— share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …
Speaker Deck
Features
Speaker Deck
PRO
Sign in
Sign up for free
Search
Search
Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the F...
Search
Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
Technology
0
170
Black Swans: What They Can Teach Us about the Future
DockYard hallway talk.
Lauren Tan
October 22, 2015
Tweet
Share
More Decks by Lauren Tan
See All by Lauren Tan
Just Use Any: js.la Edition
poteto
0
220
TSConf 2019: Just Use Any - How to Win Colleagues and Influence Your Boss
poteto
0
2k
DotJS 2018 - Learning to Love Type Systems
poteto
2
2.8k
Swipe Left, Uncaught TypeError: Learning to Love Type Systems
poteto
0
1.2k
EmberFest 2017 - Ember @ Netflix
poteto
1
230
CodeEurope 2017 – Monoliths to Services with Elixir and Phoenix
poteto
13
2.4k
EmberConf 2017 – Confessions of an Ember Addon Author
poteto
2
720
ElixirConf 2016 - From Front-End to Full Stack with Elixir & Phoenix
poteto
14
3.2k
EmberCamp 2016 – I Can Write My App With No Handlebars: Declarative Templating in Ember
poteto
5
1.4k
Other Decks in Technology
See All in Technology
そもそも AWS FIS について。なぜ今 FIS のハンズオンなのか?などなど
kazzpapa3
2
120
Recoil脱却の現状と挑戦
kirik
2
330
Railsの限界を超えろ!「家族アルバム みてね」の画像・動画の大規模アップロードを支えるアーキテクチャの変遷
ojima_h
3
390
Expertise as a Service via MCP
yodakeisuke
1
140
MCP とマネージド PaaS で実現する大規模 AI アプリケーションの高速開発
nahokoxxx
1
1.4k
自分がLinc’wellで提供しているプロダクトを理解するためにやったこと
murabayashi
1
160
データ駆動経営の道しるべ:プロダクト開発指標の戦略的活用法
ham0215
2
230
SAE J1939シミュレーション環境構築
daikiokazaki
0
130
Snowflake のアーキテクチャは本当に筋がよかったのか / Data Engineering Study #30
indigo13love
0
250
Shadow DOM & Security - Exploring the boundary between light and shadow
masatokinugawa
0
660
QAを早期に巻き込む”って どうやるの? モヤモヤから抜け出す実践知
moritamasami
2
180
AIコードアシスタントとiOS開発
jollyjoester
1
230
Featured
See All Featured
Bootstrapping a Software Product
garrettdimon
PRO
307
110k
Testing 201, or: Great Expectations
jmmastey
43
7.6k
Side Projects
sachag
455
43k
Performance Is Good for Brains [We Love Speed 2024]
tammyeverts
10
990
Raft: Consensus for Rubyists
vanstee
140
7k
Optimizing for Happiness
mojombo
379
70k
Unsuck your backbone
ammeep
671
58k
Chrome DevTools: State of the Union 2024 - Debugging React & Beyond
addyosmani
7
760
Become a Pro
speakerdeck
PRO
29
5.4k
Balancing Empowerment & Direction
lara
1
490
個人開発の失敗を避けるイケてる考え方 / tips for indie hackers
panda_program
108
19k
Stop Working from a Prison Cell
hatefulcrawdad
271
21k
Transcript
Black Swans h D O C K YA R D
h What they can teach us about the future
Lauren Elizabeth Tan @sugarpirate_ @poteto
“Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” –Juvenal
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
None
“A rare bird in the lands and very much like
a black swan” –Juvenal
None
None
One single observation
Black Swan
–Donald Rumsfeld “There are known knowns. These are things we
know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.”
None
I. Is an outlier II.Has extreme impact III.Retrospective predictability
Black Swans explain almost everything
World War I
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
The Internet
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
9/11
I. Was an outlier II.Had extreme impact III.Predictable only with
the benefit of hindsight
MH17 / 370
Sub-prime mortgage crisis
Challenger
etc.
The Problem of Induction
Some men are doctors. Some doctors are tall. Therefore, some
men are tall.
If it rains, the street will be wet. The street
is wet. Therefore, it rained.
Half of my foreign neighbors are illegal immigrants. Therefore, half
of immigrants come illegally.
If P⇒Q and Q⇒R are true Then P→R is true
None
What we think we know
None
None
What is "normal"?
None
None
None
None
80/20 https://youtu.be/fCn8zs912OE?t=194
20% of people hold 80% of all wealth
20% of businesses generate 80% of all profits
None
Rule of 70
If your savings increase by 10% every year
Your savings will double in 7 years
How to think about the future
Moore's Law
None
Artificial Intelligence?
Artificial Super Intelligence
Artificial Super Intelligence
I. Will be an outlier II.Will have extreme impact III.Probably
predictable after the fact
How long until computers have the same power as the
human brain? https://youtu.be/MRG8eq7miUE
2025
How long until computers are twice as smart as humans?
2026
At what point were computers half as smart as humans?
2024
The future
None
None
None
None
None
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Solar Energy
Singularity?
fin.