Disrupting the Discourse of the "Digital Disruption of _____"

Talk given at University of Applied Sciences for Management and Communication in Vienna in January 2017. It critically interrogates the narrative of digital disruption. It will describe some of the contemporary psychological and social research about the digital lifeworld and make some broader observations about how to best think about technological change.

Transcript

1. DISRUPTING THE DISCOURSE OF THE DIGITAL DISRUPTION OF ______________
2. ABOUT THIS TALK This presentation will interrogate the narrative of digital disruption. It will describe some of the contemporary psychological and social research about the digital lifeworld and make some broader observations about how to best think about technological change. GET STARTED
3. Randy connolly Professor, MATHEMATICS & COMPUTING Mount royal university Calgary, canada
4. 4 CALGARY CANADA
5. LOCATION
11. 1999 2010 2009 2007 2011
12. LET’S GET STARTED!
15. My research since 1995 has PARTLY involved examining the rhetoric around optimistic predictions …
16. … about a wide variety of different technologies since the 1820s.
17. _____ tend to elevate, to extend and increase knowledge as well as business, and in our country especially, they will unite us more closely as a people, and bind us together as a common brotherhood. ______ will turn the country into one big community. _______ will introduce an epoch of neighborship without propinquity. ___________ will restore a sense of community in an increasingly anticommunal world. With the help of the ________, we are turning the country into one big community. It will not be long ere the whole surface of this country will be channeled by a knowledge of all that is occurring throughout the land; making, in fact, one neighborhood of the whole country. _________ are the iron bands that will bind the various sections of this country together by a community of interest. ______ will restore a sense of community. Boat Canals (1815- 1820s) The Internet (1994) Telephone (1880s) Railroad (1840s) Telegraph (1850s) Automobile (1890s- 1900s) Radio (1920s) Wireless (1900s-1910s)
18. One of the most enduring features of predictions about certain technologies …
19. … is the belief that is going to revolutionize a given technology education.
20. Since the popularization of the web in the mid 1990s, one of the most common claims about it, is how education needs to change because of it.
21. While educators have often had reservations about new technologies replacing old technologies …
22. … educators do not always have the opportunity to fully examine the evaluative research on new education technologies.
23. Indeed, quite often evaluating a new education technology is only possible after it has been adopted.
24. Thus educators are frequently encouraged to adopt a new technology not by research demonstrating its merits …
25. … but by a series of metaphors or analogies comparing the new unknown technology to an old and trusted one.
26. Yet even if research ultimately emerges that is critical of the new technology, by then it is too late …
27. institutional inertia, financial investment, and interest politics make it difficult to un-adopta technology.
28. FURTHERMORE, predictions about radical disruption due to technological change are often built upon a simplistic theory of social change
29. The common way of seeing technology is that it is akin to a cue ball impacting or altering the rest of society
30. In this perspective key technological inventions have transformed the world. Thus new technologies need to be analyzed to understand the wide changes they will enact.
31. This approach to technology is generally referred to as Technological Determinism
32. (society, politics, economy, psychology, etc) Independent Variable Dependent Variables Technological Change determines
33. It is understandable why computer professionals find technological determinism attractive. We are the people helping to invent new technologies
34. It is also understandable why media professionals find technological determinism attractive.
35. It feeds THEIR clear desire to be socially relevant
36. AND OF COURSE IT IS VERY understandable why BUSINESS PROGNOSTICATORS find technological determinism attractive. THERE ARE STRONG ECONOMIC INCENTIVES TO BEING AN EARLY PLAYER IN A GAME OF ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION.
37. YET
38. Most current historians and sociologists of technology firmly reject technological determinism theoretically inconsistent because it is empirically under-supported and
39. The well-established academic field of science, technology and society (STS) studies has time and time again found that when examined carefully most technologies rarely have had the effect that was expected or had the transformative impact people claim.
40. Why?
42. Some examples …
43. First some fine examples of bridges in the United States in the late 19th century. To begin, let’s look at a high technology of the 19th century: bridges.
44. 1884 http://bridgehunter.com/ny/orange/petticoat-lane/ 1886 http://bridgehunter.com/ny/orange/hubbard-road/
45. 1886 http://bridgehunter.com/ny/saratoga/hadley/ 1869 http://bridgehunter.com/pa/perry/rices
46. Now, contrast those to some bridges built in the United Kingdom at the same time.
47. 1842 http://historic-railway-buildings.fotopic.net/p13531318.html
48. 1846 http://historic-railway-buildings.fotopic.net/p12745082.html
49. 1842 http://historic-railway-buildings.fotopic.net/p13531319.html
50. 1889 http://www.flickr.com/photos/26354/122035079/
51. 19 BC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Pont_du_gard.jpg
52. British bridges were “treated as monuments symbolizing progress already achieved, the whole ethos surrounding their American counterparts was one of expectations of future progress.” -- Arnold Pacey, The Maze of Ingenuity: Ideas and Idealism in the Development of Technology Both these bridges were built in 1890 and cross a similar width of river, one in Britain, the other in the United States
53. http://www.sewerhistory.org/grfx/components/pipe-early1.htm
58. Sholes original typewriters were plagued by the bars jamming when typist typed too quickly. Remington (which bought Sholes), solved the problem in the 1880s with qwerty keyboard (i.e., made it harder to type quicker) and also allowed salesmen to quick type TYEWRITER. Example of alternate keyboard arrangement that is significantly quicker to type on.
59. “Because small, random events that happen early can be magnified to have great importance later, the eventual outcome can depend quite sensitively on circumstances – it is path dependent. … Such path dependence implies that the outcome can not be predicted with any certainty ahead of time.” Robert Pool, Beyond Engineering: How Society Shapes Technology (1997)
60. Technological determinism visualizes competing technologies as a marble in a bowl: gravity forces it towards the same destination regardless of the path it take (and thus technology is predictable)
61. Constructivist historians see technologies like a marble poised on top of an upside down bowl: the path the marble takes (and its resulting destination) can be quite different. Its path can be quite complicated to understand, and requires examining factors such as: the dissemination of scientific discoveries, existing technological infrastructure, market judgments, organizational decisions, actions by key individuals, etc.
62. however
63. While the path a technology takes will depend on a wide variety of factors made near the beginning of a technology’s development, it eventually follows a path that is constrained and difficult to veer from. Some people have called this technological momentum. A technology develops momentum or has inertia due to established interests (financial, educational, biases, social practices, etc) and it can be very difficult for a technology to shift or change drastically after that early stage.
65. Most technological deterministic impact prognosticators do their work by looking at the functional capabilities of a given technology and then imagining the impact of those functions.
66. e.g.
68. The introduction of anti-lock disc brakes have not reduced accidents at all, because drivers tend to drive faster and tailgate more closely due to the improved braking technology and also partly because of increases in the intensity of traffic due to unexpected changes in urban geography.
70. The introduction of household technology did not end up creating, in the words of Ruth Schwartz Cowan, less work for mother, but in fact more work because of a series of social changes that could not have been predicted if one limited one’s analysis just to the functional capabilities of the household technologies.
72. it is always a mistake “to assess the impact of a technology on the basis of inference from capabilities instead of on the basis of evidence”
74. If we do examine the evidence we will see that the intrusion of ICT into activities such as reading and education has NOT improved human knowledge but arguably done the opposite
75. electronic Reading comprehension 1
76. Are there differences in the reading experience between paper and screen?
77. There is evidence that YES readers’ comprehension levels are significantly lower when reading materials on the screen in comparison to reading paper materials
78. Eveland Jr, W. P., & Dunwoody, S. (2001). User control and structural isomorphism or disorientation and cognitive load?: Learning from the web versus print. Communication Research, 28(1). Liu, Z. (2005). Reading behavior in the digital environment. Journal of Documentation, 61(6). Macedo-Rouet, M., Rouet, J. F., Epstein, I., & Fayard, P. (2003). Effects of online reading on popular science comprehension. Science Communication, 25(2). Ji, S. W., Michaels, S., & Waterman, D. (2014). Print vs. electronic readings in college courses: Cost-efficiency and perceived learning. The Internet and Higher Education, 21. Ackerman, R., & Lauterman, T. (2012). Taking reading comprehension exams on screen or on paper? A metacognitive analysis of learning texts under time pressure. Computers in Human Behavior, 28(5) DeStefano, D., & LeFevre, J. A. (2007). Cognitive load in hypertext reading: A review. Computers in Human Behavior, 23(3). Mangen, A., Walgermo, B. R., & Brønnick, K. (2013). Reading linear texts on paper versus computer screen: Effects on reading comprehension. International Journal of Educational Research.
79. Why are comprehension levels lower?
80. Scanning while Consuming electronic text 2
81. Research into actual behavior when consuming text online provides a clear explanation for diminished comprehension
82. Early research into web usability quickly uncovered a very important fact about how people actually read on the web
84. How long do you spend visiting a web page? You’re looking at the answer
85. are displayed for less than 25% of all web pages four seconds! Weinreich et al, “Off the Beaten Tracks: Exploring Three Aspects of Web Navigation”, IW3C2 2006
86. are shorter than 52% of all visits ten seconds! Only about 11% are visited for more than 2 minutes. Weinreich et al, “Off the Beaten Tracks: Exploring Three Aspects of Web Navigation”, IW3C2 2006
87. The evidence for this is verystrong It has been empirically verified via server records, eye tracking in labs, and monitoring software.
89. We are only able to see things clearly and in focus in the fovea
90. Word Skipping: Implications Eye movements in reading are characterized by short periods of steadiness (fixations) followed by fast movements (saccades). Saccades are needed to bring new information into the centre of the visual field where acuity is best; fixations are required to recognized words. … Some words are fixated more than once, some are initially not fixated but immediately afterwards regressed to, and some are not fixated at all. Marc Brysbaert and Francoise Vitu, “Word Skipping: Implications for Theories of Eye Movement Control in Reading,”Eye Guidance in Reading and Scene Perception (Elsevier Science, 1998)
91. Results of an eye-tracking experiment in which subjects were being tested for which text layout was easier to read; notice that even when subjects were being asked to read, very little reading (i.e., fixations – shown as circles) was actually done
92. Nielsen Group, “F-Shaped Pattern For Reading Web Content,” http://www.useit.com/alertbox/reading_pattern.html (April 17, 2006)
94. http://www.ojr.org/ojr/stories/070312ruel/
95. Nielsen Group, “Email Newsletters: Surviving Inbox Congestion,”http://www.useit.com/alertbox/newsletters.html (June 12, 2006) Notice Red areas show that only first two words in headlines scanned are
96. Eye-tracking studies in the past few years show that in comparison to 15 years ago, people now scan newspapers in a very similar way to web pages
97. The EVIDENCE for this is very well validated empirically Users are reading at best 20% of the text on a web page.
98. Server-record analysis hints that these studies actually over-state the average stay time (i.e., actual average stay is even brieferthan 10 seconds). WHY?
99. Because adult sites appear to be the largest single category of web site (with email and social networking a close second and third) ... … and on average the stay time for adult and email requests is significantly longer than non-adult and non-email requests.
100. Are academics any different?
101. NOPE
102. Reading time: Paper 10-15 min
103. Reading time: acrobat pdf 1-2 min
104. Academic’s self- assessment of their pdfreading time 5-10 min
105. users rarely have even remotely accurate insight into their actual scanning behaviors
106. What about OTHER READING devices?
107. and 3distraction multitasking
108. One absolutely vital feature of most current electronic reading devices is that they contain within them substantial potential for distractibility.
109. This potential distractibility lowers comprehension levels and lowers task completion probabilities.
110. It is becoming progressively more common for people to multitask, especially in regards to different media technologies.
111. Who cares? Some have argued that younger digital generation can multitask successfully
112. unfortunately The evidence tells a different story
113. For instance
114. Bowman, L. L., Levine, L. E., Waite, B. M., & Gendron, M. (2010). Can students really multitask? an experimental study of instant messaging while reading.Computers & Education, 54 (4) Levine, L. E., Waite, B. M., & Bowman, L. L. (2012). Mobile media use, multitasking and distractibility.International Journal of Cyber Behavior, Psychology and Learning (IJCBPL), 2(3), 15-29. Ophir, E., Nass, C., & Wagner, A. D. (2009). Cognitive control in media multitaskers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(37) Aguilar-Roca, N. M., Williams, A. E., & O'Dowd, D. K. (2012). The impact of laptop-free zones on student performance and attitudes in large lectures.Computers & Education, 59 (4) Fried, C. B. (2008). In-class laptop use and its effects on student learning.Computers & Education, 50(3), Junco, R., & Cotten, S. R. (2012). No A 4 U: The relationship between multitasking and academic performance.Computers & Education, 59(2), 505-514. Lee, Y., & Wu, J. (2012). The effect of individual differences in the inner and outer states of ICT on engagement in online reading activities and PISA 2009 reading literacy: Exploring the relationship between the old and new reading literacy.Learning and Individual Differences, 22 (3) Judd, T., & Kennedy, G. (2011). Measurement and evidence of computer-based task switching and multitasking by ‘Net generation’ students.Computers & Education, 56 (3), Brasel, S. A., & Gips, J. (2011). Media multitasking behavior: Concurrent television and computer usage. Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking, 14(9). Yeykelis, L., Cummings, J. J., & Reeves, B. (2014). Multitasking on a single device: Arousal and the frequency, anticipation, and prediction of switching between media content on a computer. Journal of Communication Sana, F., Weston, T., & Cepeda, N. J. (2013). Laptop multitasking hinders classroom learning for both users and nearby peers. Computers & Education, 62. Rubinstein, J. S., Meyer, D. E., & Evans, J. E. (2001). Executive control of cognitive processes in task switching. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 27(4) Wood, E., Zivcakova, L., Gentile, P., Archer, K., De Pasquale, D., & Nosko, A. (2012). Examining the impact of off-task multi-tasking with technology on real-time classroom learning. Computers & Education, 58(1).
115. the evidence is very consistent Heavy media multitaskers (especialy younger people) have lower grades, less self-regulation, lower motivation levels, and lowered learning
116. So is this just something that only those young kids are doing?
117. NOPE
118. How frequently will this person switch her attention between devices?
119. About every 2 to 5 seconds Attention lengths of 5 seconds for laptop, and 2 seconds for TV
120. Multi-tasking on one device? Task switch happens about every 19 seconds
121. Are we aware of how frequently we task switch?
122. NOPE
123. Test subjects underestimated their attention switches by 88%
124. In An overview of the evidence researchers concluded that availability and usage of ICT in classrooms had a direct and negative impact on literacy , knowledge, grades , and creativity (even after controlling for other factors)
125. 4SELECTIVITY
126. Selectivityrefers to users choosing/selecting what they read/view.
127. What could be wrong with the freedom to choose … your reading material?
128. From Socrates to the present-day, it has long been believed that more knowledgeable people results in better citizens.
129. The web appears to be a technology that makes more knowledge available to more people.
130. In this case, our intuitions about technology can led us astray.
131. Just because a technology is designed to improve task X, it doesn’t mean it is often successful in doing so.
132. In fact, it is a well known phenomenon that some technologies over time actually decrease the performance of task X.
133. These are known as Revenge Effects
134. Relevance?
135. Online readers are significantly more selective (they can more easily skip/hide content) than paper readers.
136. Excessive selectivity is associated with a variety of negative outcomes:
137. And … Decreased news awareness Decreased political knowledge and participation
138. Decreased diversity of opinion and higher political polarization
139. Online selectivity is also narrowing scholarship
140. “Collectively, the models presented illustrate that as journal archives came online … citations became more concentrated within fewer articles.” “by enabling scientists to quickly reach and converge with prevailing opinion, electronic journals hasten scientific consensus” James A Evans, “Electronic Publication and the Narrowing of Science and Scholarship,”Science 321 (July 18, 2008)
141. WHY is this happening?
142. Power Law Distribution rules the web (and more) http://www.congo-education.net/wealth-of-networks/figure-7-4.gif
143. http://www.hitwise.com/datacenter/main/dashboard-10133.html
144. Whether you look at the web as a whole or any subsection within it (blogs, political sites, sports sites, etc) you see power law distributions.
145. This doesn’t fit the hype of the web as a radically de-centralizing force.
146. The introduction of cheaper rotary printing presses (in 19th century) was initially a centrifugal force … But over time, they (along with other agents) acted as a centripetal force and centralized print into a few major newspapers and book presses. in that there was a flowering of many new print sources (penny presses, community papers, union leaflets, etc). That is, a power law distribution developed.
148. please is this almost over?
149. ALMOST!
150. In all these cases the expected social impacts of a technology ended up being wildly wrong because either the prognosticators believed in a naïve technological determinism
151. or Because the prognosticators Used simplistic future models Based on the technology’s Functional capabilities
152. The first step Then we should take when Thinking about social consequences Of technology is to remember how rarely technologies achieve their promise, and indeed, how many do the opposite OR THE UNEXPECTED.
153. “It was easy to predict the invention of the automobile; what was hard was to predict the traffic jam, or the automobile’s effect on teenage sexuality.” -- ISAAC ASIMOV
154. The SECOND STEP IS TO RECOGNIZE THAT TECHNOLOGIES DO HAVE AN EFFECT ON PEOPLE AND SOCIETY. MOMENTUM EXISTS … UNFORTUNATELY, THE PATH TAKEN BY A TECHNOLOGY IS OFTEN NOT THE ONE INTENDED, OR ONE THAT IS EASILY UNDERSTOOD.
155. The third step Is not relying on anecdotal evidence, marketing hype, or hasty web-based journalism When looking for evidence about social effects of technologies.
156. Ways need to be explored of stimulating vigorous on-going public debate about digital technology –allowing current ‘common-sense’ understandings of digital disruptions to be challenged, contested, problematized and de- reified.
157. Similarly, there is clearly scope for the more rigorous and far-reaching problematizing of digital disruption discourse from within the academic community – engaging in discussions and debates that move beyond the ‘celebratory vagueness’ of much scholarly work on digital media.
158. THANK YOU