坂本勇人さん改め山田哲人さんの成績予測をやってみた / Baseball Play Study 2020 Winter

Transcript

1. ࡔຊ༐ਓ͸͍ͭ௨ࢉ3,000ຊ҆ଧΛ ୡ੒͢Δ͔AIʹฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠ Baseball Play Study 2020ౙ - γʔζϯৼΓฦΓεϖγϟϧ 2020/12/17 Shinichi

   Nakagawa(@shinyorke)

2. ϫΠʮઌ೔ಉ͡࿩ΛଞॴͰͨ͠Α͏ͳʯ

3. ͋ͬʢ࡯͠ʣ ೔༵೔ʹʮSports Analyst Meetup #9ʯͰLTͪ͠Όͬͯ·ͨ͠ https://speakerdeck.com/shinyorke/hayato-sakamoto-performance-prediction-using-feature-engineering-with-machine-learning-and-python

4. ʲ݁࿦ʳࡔຊ༐ਓબखͷ༧ଌ੒੷ 39ࡀͷγʔζϯ, ͖ͬͱΈΜͳʹॕ෱͞ΕΔͰ͠ΐ͏

5. ʲ݁࿦ʳࡔຊ͞Μ3,000҆ଧ͸39ࡀ 
 ※2028೥γʔζϯ, ͋͘·ͰݟࠐΈͰ͢

6. ΊͰͨ͠ΊͰͨ͠ ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠

7. ͍΍͍΍, ͜ΕͰऴΘΕΜͩΖʢ਒͑ʣ

8. ͪΌΜͱωλ, ༻ҙͯ͠·͢

9. ॕɾࢁా఩ਓ༷ϠΫϧτ࢒ཹ ௕ظܖ໿ظؒͷ੒੷Λ 
 AIʹ፻଄ͤ͞ฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠ Baseball Play Study 2020ౙ - γʔζϯৼΓฦΓεϖγϟϧ

   2020/12/17 Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke)

10. ຊ೔ͷςʔϚ • ϠΫϧτ͍΍೔ຊϓϩ໺ٿͷਓؒࠃๅͱݴͬͯ΋աݴͰ͸ͳ͍ 
 ࢁా఩ਓબख͕ҰମͲΕ΄Ͳͷ੒੷Λࠓޙ࢒͢ͷ͔઎͏ • ͿͬͪΌ͚ܖ໿ֹۚ෼ͷ׆༂͢Δͷ͔?͖ʹͳΔ • ΍͖͏AI͍ͥͬͯ͢͝Θ͔ͬͯ͘ΕͨΒخ͍͠ʢ͜ͳΈʣ

11. Who am I ?ʢ͓લ୭Αʣ • Shinichi Nakagawaʢத઒ ৳Ұʣ • େ఍ͷSNSͰʮshinyorkeʢ͠ΜΑʔ͘ʣʯͱ໊৐͍ͬͯ·͢

    • JX Press Corporation Senior Engineer 
 ʢJX௨৴ࣾ γχΞɾΤϯδχΞʣ • Baseball Engineer, Data Scientist 
 ʢ໺ੜͷ໺ٿΤϯδχΞɾσʔλαΠΤϯςΟετʣ • ࣗশʮBaseball Play StudyͷϨδΣϯυʯ, ݩɾϓϩͷ໺ٿΤϯδχΞ • ࠷ۙ, 12ٿஂതѪओٛऀʹͳΓ·ͨ͠ʢ͕஍ݩ๺ւಓͳͷͰ೔ϋϜ͖ʹͳΔʣ.

12. ඵͰৼΓฦΔ2020೥ͷϓϩ໺ٿ • όϯςϦϯυʔϜφΰϠ, ര஀ • ౦ژυʔϜબख, Ҡ੶ʢ༧ఆʣ • 26 -

    4ʢ࡯͠ʣ • ࢁా఩ਓબख, 7೥૯ֹ40ԯԁʢਪఆʣͰϠΫϧτ࢒ཹ

13. ࢁా఩ਓ͞Μͷ7೥40ԯԁͱ͔͍͏ܖ໿ • ೥เ5ԯԁʢʴΠϯηϯςΟϒʣ×7೥, Β͍͠. • ϑΝϯ͸ΈΜͳخ͍͠Ͱ͠ΐ͏, ϫΠ΋خ͍͠Ͱ͢. • ΋͏ҰਓͷϫΠʮ40ԯԁͬͯݩ͕औΕΔΜ΍Ζ͔ʯ

14. …ͱ͍͏༁Ͱ, ໺ٿAI͞Μʹฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠.

15. ࠓճ࢖͏΍͖͏ͷਓ޻஌ೳ PyCon JP 2020Ͱ΍ͬͨ΍ʔͭΛͦͷ··࢖͍·ͨ͠ʢ#spoana ͱಉ͡Ͱ͢ʣ. https://shinyorke.hatenablog.com/entry/baseball-and-ml-with-python

16. ͻͱ·ͣ݁ՌΛ͓ݟͤ͠·͢.

17. ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙ - ҆ଧɾຊྥଧɾଧ఺ 150҆ଧͪΐ͍, 17ʙ19ຊྥଧΛՔ͗ͭͭ, 70ଧ఺Ҏ্Ք͙੒੷

18. ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙ - ଧ཰ 32, 33ࡀ͋ͨΓͰಥવ޼ଧʹ໨֮Ίͯͯ໘ന͍݁Ռʹ

19. ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙΛ·ͱΊΔͱ ͜ΕͰͣͬͱηΧϯυ΍ͬͯ͘ΕΔͳΒ͗͢͢͝Ͱ͸ ͑?τϦϓϧεϦʔ??͏ʔʔΜ ೥౓ ೥ྸ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰

                                                    

20. ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷ௨ࢉ੒੷ʢ༧ଌʣ ͜ΕͰηΧϯυͬͯڧ͗͢͸͠·ͤΜ͔ʢ਒͑ʣ ظؒ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰ ೥·Ͱ
    ˞ݱ࣮

         
    ˞༧ଌ੒੷      ௨ࢉʢ༧ଌʣ     

21. ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷ௨ࢉ੒੷ʢ༧ଌʣ ͜ΕͰηΧϯυͬͯڧ͗͢͸͠·ͤΜ͔ʢ਒͑ʣ ظؒ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰ ೥·Ͱ
    ˞ݱ࣮

         
    ˞༧ଌ੒੷      ௨ࢉʢ༧ଌʣ      334ͪΌ͏Μ͔ʔ͍

22. ࢁా఩ਓ༷2027ʢ34ʣ͕࢒͢ه࿥ • ௨ࢉຊྥଧɾଧ఺ɾଧ཰Ͱߴ໦कಓࢯΛ௒͑Δ • ௨ࢉ2,236҆ଧͰ໊ٿձೖΓ·ͬͨͳ͠ • ໊࣮ͱ΋ʹϓϩ໺ٿ্࢙࠷ڧͷηΧϯυʹͳΔՄೳੑ

23. ͱ͸͍͑Ͱ͢Α • 7೥ܖ໿தͷτϦϓϧεϦʔʢ3ׂ30ຊྥଧ30౪ྥʣ͸ଟ෼ແཧ • ਓ޻஌ೳ͸500ଧ੮Ҏ্Ք͙༧ଌΛ͍ͯ͠Δ͚Ͳ, 
 ఩ਓ༷Ҋ֎ނোͱ͔཭୤͋Δͷ͕ͪΐͬͱ৺഑ • ηΧϯυ͸कඋෛ୲͕͔ͳΓ͋ΔϙδγϣϯͳͷͰ 


    ଧྗΛ׆͔ͨ͢Ίͷίϯόʔτ΋͋Δ͔΋͠Εͳ͍

24. ݁࿦ • ೔ຊҰͷηΧϯυʹͳΓͦ͏ͳͷͰ7೥40ԯͷܖ໿͸ଟ෼ଥ౰ • ͱ͸͍͑େࣄʹ࢖ͬͯཉ͍͠, ͋ΔҙຯਓؒࠃๅͰ͢͠ • ͘Ε͙Ε΋਎ମʹؾΛ͚ͭͯؤுͬͯ΄͍͠ʂ

25. ήʔϜηοτ⚾ ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠. Shinichi Nakagawa(Twitter/Facebook/etc… @shinyorke)