Upgrade to Pro — share decks privately, control downloads, hide ads and more …

Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle

Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle

Baskin Robbins wishes it had as many flavors as there are JS frameworks, build tools, and cool new “low-level” languages. You just want to solve a problem, not have a 500-framework bake-off! And how will you know whether you picked the right one? Don’t flip that table, because we’ll use the “hype cycle” and the history of Ruby and Rails as a guide to help you understand which front-end and back-end technologies are a fit for your needs, wants, and career now and in the future.

Presented at RailsConf, May 5, 2016

tehviking

May 05, 2016
Tweet

More Decks by tehviking

Other Decks in Technology

Transcript

  1. WELCOME TO THE
    NAP TRACK

    Please respect the sleep needs of those around you

    View full-size slide

  2. Hello from
    Austin, TX
    the breakfast
    taco capital of
    the universe

    View full-size slide

  3. DOCKERIZING YOUR
    REACT CONTAINER:
    WHY WHAT YOU KNOW IS SOOO 5
    MINUTES AGO

    View full-size slide

  4. SORRY,
    THAT’S OVER.

    View full-size slide

  5. WEBPACKING YOUR
    ELM KUBERNETES:
    WHY WHAT YOU KNOW IS SOOO 11
    SECONDS AGO

    View full-size slide

  6. Let’s talk about
    mid-life crises.

    View full-size slide

  7. HELLO THERE.
    THIS IS
    MY DAD
    THIS IS HIS
    FANNY PACK

    View full-size slide

  8. BUT THIS IS HIS
    MID-LIFE CRISIS
    THIS IS NOT
    MY DAD

    View full-size slide

  9. The web developer’s
    career is entering an
    endless mid-life crisis.

    View full-size slide

  10. A word of
    comfort
    A word of
    caution

    View full-size slide

  11. YEAH, IT’S GOT
    VIRTUAL DOM
    HEY, COOL JS
    FRAMEWORK

    View full-size slide

  12. BRANDON HAYS
    @tehviking
    “We do chicken right!”

    View full-size slide

  13. I first noticed
    these patterns
    learning Ember.

    View full-size slide

  14. A prediction for those
    trying to stay up on the
    latest web technologies

    View full-size slide

  15. -My prediction?
    PAIN.

    View full-size slide

  16. PAIN POINT 1:
    It’s impossible to keep
    up with new tools.

    View full-size slide

  17. PAIN POINT 1:
    YOU CAN’T KEEP UP
    WITH NEW TOOLS
    Choice Paralysis

    View full-size slide

  18. The Tech Treadmill

    View full-size slide

  19. PAIN POINT 2:
    New stuff can’t live
    up to expectations.

    View full-size slide

  20. SPOILER ALERT
    IT WAS ALIENS

    View full-size slide

  21. New tech: Week 2

    View full-size slide

  22. PAIN POINT 3:
    The technology you
    love is now obsolete.

    View full-size slide

  23. Pour one out for Rails

    View full-size slide

  24. Alas, poor
    Tomster,
    we hardly
    knew ye

    View full-size slide

  25. WHAT IF I TOLD YOU
    THIS IS ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE

    View full-size slide

  26. The Hype Cycle
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    VISIBILITY
    MATURITY

    View full-size slide

  27. Also, your favorite
    technology didn’t really die

    View full-size slide

  28. WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN?
    PAIN


    CURRENT TOOLS
    ARE FAILING ME
    OH HEY
    SOMETHING NEW

    View full-size slide

  29. This realization can
    happen instantly.

    View full-size slide

  30. How it works
    History of Rails
    How to apply it
    The Hype Cycle

    View full-size slide

  31. A Movement in
    5 Medium Thinkpieces

    View full-size slide

  32. TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    Technology
    Trigger

    View full-size slide

  33. Peak of Inflated
    Expectations
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS

    View full-size slide

  34. Trough of
    Disillusionment
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT

    View full-size slide

  35. Slope of
    Enlightenment
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT

    View full-size slide

  36. Plateau of
    Productivity
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY

    View full-size slide

  37. No one upvotes the
    plateau of productivity.

    View full-size slide

  38. “Hype” is not an insult, it’s an inevitability
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    VISIBILITY
    MATURITY

    View full-size slide

  39. The “Whoops!” heard
    ‘round the world

    View full-size slide

  40. TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    Technology
    Trigger

    View full-size slide

  41. Peak of Inflated
    Expectations
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS

    View full-size slide

  42. Promise: This will make
    you the 10x developer you
    always hoped you were

    View full-size slide

  43. You are literally
    a Jedi Rockstar

    View full-size slide

  44. (We’ll talk about the
    real promise at the end)

    View full-size slide

  45. You’re on a rocket ride to
    the moooooooon!

    View full-size slide

  46. Except then…

    View full-size slide

  47. Trough of
    Disillusionment
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT

    View full-size slide

  48. Slope of
    Enlightenment
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT

    View full-size slide

  49. Plateau of
    Productivity
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY

    View full-size slide

  50. MySQL isn’t cool. You
    know what’s cool?

    View full-size slide

  51. 3 TYPES:
    Pioneers
    Settlers
    Town Planners
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html

    View full-size slide

  52. PIONEERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html

    View full-size slide

  53. SETTLERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html

    View full-size slide

  54. TOWN PLANNERS
    http://blog.gardeviance.org/2012/06/pioneers-settlers-and-town-planners.html

    View full-size slide

  55. PIONEER
    SETTLER

    View full-size slide

  56. Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive

    View full-size slide

  57. lighthttpd/FastCGI
    Built-in SOAP
    “Email me your gem list”
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive

    View full-size slide

  58. Shopify
    Engine Yard
    Odeo
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive

    View full-size slide

  59. Shopify
    Engine Yard
    Odeo Twitter
    Pre-0.14β: Pioneers Arrive

    View full-size slide

  60. 1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In

    View full-size slide

  61. acts_as_everything
    Restful routes
    Bundler
    Passenger
    1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In

    View full-size slide

  62. Thank you,
    Ryan Bates

    View full-size slide

  63. Heroku
    Zendesk
    New Relic
    GitHub
    1.0-2.3: Settlers Move In

    View full-size slide

  64. 3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over

    View full-size slide

  65. Merb merge & Arel
    SOA
    Rails as API
    3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over

    View full-size slide

  66. Fortune 500 companies
    Basically all of Y Combinator
    Most hacker schools
    3.0-5: Town Planners Take Over

    View full-size slide

  67. Which irritates you most?
    1. Being required to use outdated tools
    2. Team members that try to rewrite your
    codebase in the latest “hipster stack”
    3. Anything that gets in the way of shipping

    View full-size slide

  68. Which do you enjoy most?
    1. Accepting a PR for an OSS library
    2. Applying a technology in a way
    that makes the company money
    3. Solving a tricky performance issue

    View full-size slide

  69. Where do you feel most helpful?
    1. Showing someone that there’s a new,
    better way of doing things
    2. Improving someone’s documentation
    3. Automating a tedious deploy process

    View full-size slide

  70. EACH ROLE IS VALUABLE
    Pioneers: Vision/Experiments
    Settlers: Strategy/Synthesis
    Town Planners: Tactics/Execution

    View full-size slide

  71. PIONEERS OR “HIPSTERS”?

    View full-size slide

  72. SETTLERS OR EXPLOITERS?

    View full-size slide

  73. TOWN PLANNERS OR
    “ARCHITECTURE ASTRONAUTS”?

    View full-size slide

  74. Wrong, but
    hilarious

    View full-size slide

  75. Whichever you are, don’t
    beat up on others
    (or yourself) for not
    being the other two

    View full-size slide

  76. Yeah, but how do I apply
    any of this stuff?

    View full-size slide

  77. There are ways to
    win and lose at the
    hype cycle

    View full-size slide

  78. HOW TO LOSE:
    1. Dismiss new stuff, become
    commoditized
    2. Get caught up in the cycle & burn out
    3. Bet and crash with tech that doesn’t
    clear the trough

    View full-size slide

  79. THE TECH TREADMILL
    BUT YOU CAN HACK

    View full-size slide

  80. How to win depends on
    your preferences

    View full-size slide

  81. Remember me?
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    VISIBILITY
    MATURITY

    View full-size slide

  82. 2 QUESTIONS:
    What stage is it in?
    Should I concern myself?

    View full-size slide

  83. TECHNOLOGY
    TRIGGER
    Technology
    Trigger
    PIONEERS: Probably.
    SETTLERS: Maybe…
    PLANNERS: No.

    View full-size slide

  84. Peak of Inflated
    Expectations
    PEAK
    OF INFLATED
    EXPECTATIONS
    PIONEERS: Yes!
    SETTLERS: Maybe…
    PLANNERS: No.

    View full-size slide

  85. CAN SURF THIS WAVE
    PIONEERS

    View full-size slide

  86. Trough of
    Disillusionment
    TROUGH OF
    DISILLUSIONMENT
    PIONEERS: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    SETTLERS: Probably.
    PLANNERS: Maybe…

    View full-size slide

  87. Slope of
    Enlightenment
    SLOPE OF
    ENLIGHTENMENT
    PIONEERS: Nope
    SETTLERS: Yes!
    PLANNERS: Probably.

    View full-size slide

  88. Plateau of
    Productivity
    PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    PIONEERS: No.
    SETTLERS: Maybe…
    PLANNERS: Yes!

    View full-size slide

  89. If I don’t switch to Elixir
    and Phoenix, am I going
    to be left behind?

    View full-size slide

  90. If I still use the Asset
    Pipeline instead of
    Webpack, am I headed
    for unemployment?

    View full-size slide

  91. If I haven’t built a side
    project in Elm, am I
    intellectually lazy?

    View full-size slide

  92. Your favorite technology
    isn’t dead.

    View full-size slide

  93. No one gets to make
    you feel ashamed of
    liking the stuff you like.

    View full-size slide

  94. IT’S OKAY TO NOT
    LIKE THINGS

    View full-size slide

  95. PLEASE DON’T YUCK
    SOMEONE ELSE’S YUM.
    https://medium.com/@lizzerdrix/being-comfortable-enough-to-talk-15a6eb105ab9

    View full-size slide

  96. But Brandon! If Ruby isn’t
    dead, why do you run a
    JavaScript consultancy?

    View full-size slide

  97. Doesn’t that make you a
    humongous hypocrite?

    View full-size slide

  98. But yeah,
    I’m a hypocrite

    View full-size slide

  99. There comes a time for you
    to leave the plateau.

    View full-size slide

  100. WHEN TO PIVOT

    View full-size slide

  101. Day job
    (productivity)
    Side project
    (curiosity)

    View full-size slide

  102. Make longer term
    bets, less often

    View full-size slide

  103. Avoid tech that
    targets the peak

    View full-size slide

  104. Align with tech that
    targets the plateau

    View full-size slide

  105. The emotional roller coaster of your
    first production app in a new tech
    PLATEAU OF
    CONTINUOUS
    DELIVERY
    SLOPE OF MASTERY
    TROUGH OF
    “IT SHOULDN’T BE
    THIS TOUGH”
    “EMBER NEW”
    TRIGGER
    PEAK OF
    TUTORIAL-
    DRIVEN
    DEVELOPMENT
    ENTHUSIASM
    PROJECT DURATION

    View full-size slide

  106. So you bet on a tool and
    got to “Hello World”

    View full-size slide

  107. That post-tutorial high tho

    View full-size slide

  108. Re-entering Earth’s gravity

    View full-size slide

  109. The problem isn’t “the peak”,
    it’s “inflated expectations”.

    View full-size slide

  110. 3-week PoC
    6-month slog
    Estimation is hard
    impossible

    View full-size slide

  111. TRUE 10x ENGINEERING

    View full-size slide

  112. The problem: Your boss
    thinks “Proof of Concept”
    means “Production”

    View full-size slide

  113. Yeah… If you could just put
    that into production by
    Saturday, that’d be great

    View full-size slide

  114. The emotional roller coaster of your
    first production app in a new tech
    PLATEAU OF
    CONTINUOUS
    DELIVERY
    SLOPE OF MASTERY
    TROUGH OF
    “IT SHOULDN’T BE
    THIS TOUGH”
    “EMBER NEW”
    TRIGGER
    PEAK OF
    TUTORIAL-
    DRIVEN
    DEVELOPMENT
    ENTHUSIASM
    PROJECT DURATION

    View full-size slide

  115. Why wade through the
    trough of disillusionment?

    View full-size slide

  116. While your boss wasn’t
    looking, everything changed

    View full-size slide

  117. While we swam the
    avalanche,
    everything changed

    View full-size slide

  118. Client-driven UX is a thing

    View full-size slide

  119. At 2.x, Ember is approaching
    the plateau of productivity

    View full-size slide

  120. How did Rails & Ember
    “cross the chasm”?

    View full-size slide

  121. Because while some
    churn in this cycle…
    CIRCLE OF
    ETERNAL
    HOPE

    View full-size slide

  122. PLATEAU OF
    PRODUCTIVITY
    …things like Rails and Ember
    have always targeted this

    View full-size slide

  123. I used to think the
    promise was to make
    me a 10x developer

    View full-size slide

  124. “Look at all the
    things I’m not doing!”

    View full-size slide

  125. The real promise is
    about helping you
    reach the plateau

    View full-size slide

  126. On the plateau,
    there is time to focus

    View full-size slide

  127. Focus on things
    that add value

    View full-size slide

  128. (BUSINESS VALUE)

    View full-size slide

  129. On the plateau,
    there is time to think

    View full-size slide

  130. Maybe about how
    your boss is an idiot

    View full-size slide

  131. And since you focus
    on business value,

    View full-size slide

  132. You can afford to
    fire your boss.

    View full-size slide

  133. …and then you do
    ****

    View full-size slide

  134. And you turn out OK.

    View full-size slide

  135. But that’s another talk.

    View full-size slide

  136. Thanks.
    @tehviking
    http://frontside.io

    View full-size slide

  137. IMAGE CREDITS
    Ruby on Rails book collage by Antonio Cangiano http://programmingzen.com/2007/01/05/collage-of-ruby-
    and-rails-books/
    Ox wagon by University of Pretoria Library http://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/8033
    Last Spike at Craigellachie by Wikimedia Commons https://www.wikimedia.org/
    Old map of Austin by Wikimedia Commons https://www.wikimedia.org/
    Meditate by Nadir Hashmi https://www.flickr.com/photos/nadircruise/
    Sandwich by Adam Sherer https://www.flickr.com/photos/arsherer/
    The Weight of Thought by Evan Leeson https://www.flickr.com/photos/ecstaticist/
    The New Fred Meyer on Interstate on Lombard by Lyza https://www.flickr.com/photos/lyza/49545547
    DHH during Dave Thomas' Talk by Jesper Rønn-Jensen https://www.flickr.com/photos/jesper/252308266/
    Main Street Replica by Pioneer Trails Regional Museum http://www.ptrm.org/programs/?program_id=21
    Hipster by Luca Rossato https://www.flickr.com/photos/funky64/16637883503/
    Capitalist Pig by Brandon https://www.flickr.com/photos/darthdowney/3271642232

    View full-size slide