[Unsada 012] Indonesia Economic Update

13 September 2012 International Seminar on Indonesia Economic Update Darma Persada University-Japan Sogo Kenkyu Forum Jakarta

Transcript

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4. Name : Dr. Dadang Solihin, SE, MA Place of Birth : Bandung, 6 November 1961 Campus : Darma Persada University Jln Radin Inten II (Terusan Campus : Darma Persada University, Jln. Radin Inten II (Terusan Casablanca) Pondok Kelapa – Jakarta 13450 Office Ph/Fax : +6221 864 9057 C ll Ph +6281 2932 2202 Cell Phone : +6281 2932 2202 PIN BB : 277878F0 Email : dadangsol@yahoo.com Website : dadang-solihin.blogspot.com Japan Experience : 1. Regional Development and Planning Training Course, JICA, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 1999 Experience 2. Local Government Administration Training Course, JICA, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, 2001 3. International Symposium on Intergovernmental Transfers in Asian Countries, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, 2001 4 A i P f G d S h l f A i P ifi S di 4. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2004 5. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2005 6 Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies 6. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2006 7. Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, 2007 8 Assistant Visiting Professor on Public Administration National 8. Assistant Visiting Professor on Public Administration, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo 2012 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 4
5. Outline Outline Outline Outline • Remarkable Indonesia • Regional Economic Performance • Post Crisis Economic Performance • Persistent Disparity Amidst High Economic Growth • Master Plan to Accelerate Economic Growth (MP3EI) and Poverty Reduction (MP3KI) (MP3KI) • Political Update Sources: Sources: 1. Ginandjar Kartasasmita (2012) 2. Investment Coordinating Board (2012) g ( ) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 5
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15. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD): dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 15
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21. Regional Economic Performance Regional Economic Performance eg o a co o c e o a ce eg o a co o c e o a ce Major Regions (yoy,%) Major Regions (yoy,%) ASEAN (yoy,%) ASEAN (yoy,%) (y y, ) (y y, ) 2 9 4,0 2 7 2 9 4,0 % yoy 16 %, yoy 2,9 1,8 2,5 2,0 2,7 1,7 2,9 2,0 4,0 12 14 16 2009 2010 2011* 2012* -0,7 -2,0 0,0 8 10 -2,6 -4,1 -6,0 -4,0 2 4 6 -6,3 -8,0 US Europe Japan -2 0 Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Phillipina p p 2009 2010 2011* 2012* *Projection Source: WEO, IMF Juni 2011 -4 *Projection Source: WEO, IMF Juni 2011 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 21
22. GDP Gro th GDP Gro th GDP Growth GDP Growth dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 22
23. Wh I d i Wh I d i i i M R ili t? M R ili t? Why Indonesia Why Indonesia i is More Resilient? s More Resilient? • Measures taken in 1998/1999 not only to overcome the y crises • but also to better prepare the i t f t economy against future (external) economic shocks, establishing safety establishing safety mechanism and crisis protocol. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 23
24. E port to GDP Ratio E port to GDP Ratio 1/2 1/2 Export to GDP Ratio Export to GDP Ratio 45 40.8 39.1 34 0 40 45 32.7 32.1 34.0 31.0 29.4 29.9 30 35 30.5 24.1 24.6 26.4 25 15 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 24
25. Export to GDP Ratio Export to GDP Ratio 2 2/2 /2 Export to GDP Ratio Export to GDP Ratio Compared Compared t to Other Regional Countries o Other Regional Countries Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Asian Countries 2006 116.5 47.5 234.4 73.7 39.7 68.0 205.2 2007 110.1 42.9 218.9 73.3 41.9 72.0 207.9 2008 103.0 37.2 233.4 76.4 53.0 73.0 212.4 2009 96.2 32.4 199.9 68.3 49.8 62.3 194.5 2010 97.4 35.0 211.1 71.3 52.4 73.6 222.9 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 25
26. I d i ’ E t D ti ti I d i ’ E t D ti ti Indonesia’s Export Destination Indonesia’s Export Destination dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 26
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28. E port E port Export Export dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 28
29. R piah Mo ement R piah Mo ement Rupiah Movement Rupiah Movement dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 29
30. Fiscal Deficit (%) Fiscal Deficit (%) Fiscal Deficit (%) Fiscal Deficit (%) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 30
31. Debt Profile Debt Profile (% GDP) (Trillion Rp) Debt Profile Debt Profile 47% 39% 35% 40% 45% 50% 3,500 4,000 35% 33% 28% 26% 25% 24% 22% 25% 30% 35% 2 000 2,500 3,000 655 609 652 853 754 774 779 824 807 808 22% 20% 15% 20% 25% 1 000 1,500 2,000 659 693 737 784 836 902 1,034 1,134 1,205 1,221 655 609 652 0% 5% 10% 0 500 1,000 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Domestic Foreign % GDP (right) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP 2,774 3,339 3,957 4,954 5,613 6,423 7,227 8,120 9,123 10,278 Total Debt 1,313 1,302 1,389 1,637 1,590 1,677 1,813 1,958 2,012 2,029 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 31
32. Debt Debt t to GDP Ratio o GDP Ratio i in Selected Countries (2009) n Selected Countries (2009) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 32
33. PRC = People’s Republic of China, UK = United Kingdom, US = United States. 1Daily stock price indexes of combined Shanghai and Shenzhen composites, weighted by respective market capitalizations Source: ADB, 2011 33 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com
34. National Currency Reserve National Currency Reserve National Currency Reserve National Currency Reserve Net International Reserves dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 34
35. Inflation Inflation Inflation Inflation Source: BPS dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 35 Source: BPS
36. Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 36
37. Unemplo ment Unemplo ment Unemployment Unemployment dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 37
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39. Rising Gini Ratio Rising Gini Ratio Rising Gini Ratio Rising Gini Ratio dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 39
40. Regional Disparity Regional Disparity Regional Disparity Regional Disparity 31.9 32.0 30 35 16 917.5 18.8 19.619.7 21.2 23.0 20 25 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2 10.310.711.3 13.914.214.214.6 15.815.816.1 16.9 10 15 3.7 4.2 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.4 0 5 0 0 Jakarta Bali Kalsel Babel Banten Kalteng Kaltim Keppri Riau Sulut Kalbar Jambi Sumbar Malut Sulsel Jabar Sumut Sulbar Jatim Sumsel Sultra Jateng Sulteng Yogya ampung engkulu orontalo Aceh NTB NTT Maluku P.Barat Papua S La Be Go dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 40
41. Western vs Eastern Indonesia Western vs Eastern Indonesia Western vs Eastern Indonesia Western vs Eastern Indonesia % RGDP 1980 1990 2000 2010 WI 80 84 83 82 EI 20 16 17 18 % Population 1980 1990 2000 2010 WI 83 82 81 80 WI 83 82 81 80 EI 17 18 19 20 Gini Coefficient 2007 2008 2009 2010 WI 0.33 0.31 0.32 0.35 Western Indonesia: Aceh, Sumut, Sumbar, Riau, Kepri, Jambi, Sumsel, Babel, Bengkulu, Lampung, DKI, WI 0.33 0.31 0.32 0.35 EI 0.34 0.33 0.34 0.38 , , , , p , , , , g , p g, , Jabar, Banten, Jateng, DIY, Jatim, Bali Eastern Indonesia: Kalbar, Kalteng, Kalsel, Kaltim, Sulut, Gorontalo, Sulteng, Sulsel, Sultra, Sulbar, NTB, NTT, Maluku, Malut, Papua, Papua Barat dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 41
42. Open Unemployment Open Unemployment a and nd Under Under- -employment (2005 employment (2005- -2010) 2010) 2005 2010 Open Unemployment (Not Working) 11,9 Million (11,2%) 8,3 Million (7.1%) Under-employment (Working Less than 35 Hours/Week) 28 9 Million (30 8%) 33 3 Million (30 7%) Under employment (Working Less than 35 Hours/Week) 28,9 Million (30,8%) 33,3 Million (30.7%) OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDER 33,5 LLION) 12 MILLION) 33,3 11,9 10 9 OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDER 2001 - 2010 30,9 32,2 YMENT (MIL 10 11 OYMENT (M 30,4 31,1 31,6 9,1 9,9 10,3 10,9 10,0 9,4 9 0 27 28,3 29,6 ER-EMPLOY 7 8 9 EN UNEMPLO 27,7 28,9 29,2 27,9 28,9 29,1 8,0 9,0 8,3 27 UNDE 7 OPE 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 UNDER-EMPLOYMENT OPEN EMPLOYMENT dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 42
43. Unemployment by Age Unemployment by Age p y y g p y y g 3.500.000 Age 15-24 3.000.000 Age 15-24 Years % 2007 (Ø) 35 2.500.000 31% 29% 2008 (Ø) 29 2009 (Ø) 28 1 500 000 2.000.000 NEMPLOYED 15 - 19 29% 2010 (Ø) 29 1.000.000 1.500.000 UN 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - Ø = Average February and August 500.000 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 *) 49 50 - 54 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 43
44. Imbalance Economic Imbalance Economic a and nd Employment Structures Employment Structures Employment Structures Employment Structures ECONOMIC STRUCTURE 2010 EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE February 2011 Mining (11,15%) Agriculture (15,34%) Transportation (6,50%) Finance (7,21%) Services (10,19%) Agriculture (38,17%) Transportation (5,02%) Finance (1,85%) Social Services (15,30%) y Manufacturing (24,82%) Trading (13,72%) C t ti (10 29%) Mining (1,22%) M f t i (12 31%) Trading (20,88%) Construction (5,02%) Unemployed g ( , ) Construction(10,29%) Electricity(0,78%) Manufacturing (12,31%) Construction (5,02%) Electricity, gas, water (0,23%) Unemployed 7% Manufacturing/ Industry Others 15% 0% y 6% Agriculture 72% Poor Household dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 44 Poor Household
45. Imbalance Imbalance i in Land Available n Land Available f for or Farming Households (%) Farming Households (%) GINI RATIO GINI RATIO 0.562 Households Land Source: BPS dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 45
46. Tradables and Non Tradables Tradables and Non Tradables i GDP 2001 i GDP 2001 2010 (%) 2010 (%) in GDP 2001 in GDP 2001- -2010 (%) 2010 (%) 8,96 10,00 7,13 7,81 7,43 8,96 8,55 8,19 7 00 8,00 9,00 4,89 5,28 6,30 6,02 5,00 6,00 7,00 3 81 3.85 5 03 5,69 5,50 6,35 6,01 6,10 3,00 4,00 5,00 2.64 3.86 3.51 3.23 3.72 3.47 3.81 3.85 3.05 3,64 4,50 4,78 5,03 , 5,50 4,58 1,00 2,00 0,00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 PDB Sektor non tradable Sektor tradable Non Tradable GDP Tradable Sektor tradable: (1) Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Forest and Fishery, (2) Mining (3) Manufacturing Industry. Sektor non-tradable: 1. Electricity, Gas, Clean Water, 2. Construction, Trading, Hotel, and Restaurant, 3. Transportation and Communication, 4.Finance, Real Estate and Corporate Service, 5. Social Services. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 46
47. Human Development Index Human Development Index p p Indonesia, 1980 Indonesia, 1980- -2011 2011 Source: Human Development Report – UNDP, 2011 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 47
48. HDI Asean 2010 HDI Asean 2010 HDI Asean 2010 HDI Asean 2010 Country 2010 L l I d y Level Index Singapore 27 0.846 Brunei 37 0 805 Brunei 37 0.805 Malaysia 57 0.774 Thailand 92 0 654 Thailand 92 0.654 Phillipines 97 0.638 Indonesia 108 0 600 Indonesia 108 0.600 Viet Nam 113 0.572 Cambodia 124 0 490 Cambodia 124 0.490 Myanmar 132 0.451 # Countries 169 # Countries 169 In 2009 Indonesia’s HDI was 111 Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 48 ( )
49. HDI HDI b by Components y Components HDI HDI b by Components y Components (Selected Countries, 2011) (Selected Countries, 2011) Life Expectancy Means Years Of Schooling Expected Years Of Schooling g g Philippines 68.7 8.9 11.9 China 73 5 7 5 11 6 China 73.5 7.5 11.6 Thailand 74.1 6.6 12.3 Malaysia 74 2 9 5 12 6 Malaysia 74.2 9.5 12.6 Indonesia 69.4 5.8 13.2 Viet Nam 75 2 5 5 10 4 Viet Nam 75.2 5.5 10.4 Source: HDR 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations (UNDP) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 49
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51. MP3EI MP3EI MP3EI MP3EI Number of Projects and Amount of Investment Number of Projects and Amount of Investment 2011 2012 Institution Investment (Rp. Trillion) Project No. Investment (Rp. Trillion) Project No. Government 76.6 24 66.2 15 SOE 131 24 90.3 20 Private 168.6 38 301.6 38 Mix 128.3 8 78.2 11 Total 490.5 91 356.3 84 dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 51
52. Investment Plan Investment Plan a and nd Employment Created Employment Created b by y Economic Corridor Activities Economic Corridor Activities Economic Corridor Activities Economic Corridor Activities Investment (Trillion Rupiah) New Employment SUMATERA; 35,6 JAWA; 117 ,2 PAPUA - SUMATERA; 93,9 JAWA; 188,0 KALIMANTAN; 1 .074 ,2 p y (Thousand) KALIMANTAN; 488 ,1 PAPUA KEPULAUAN MALUKU; 440,9 SULAWESI; 693 ,4 PAPUA - KEPULAUAN ; , MALUKU; 3.422, 4 SULAWESI; 189,7 BALI -NUSA TENGGARA; 57, , 1 BALI-NUSA TENGGARA; 241,0 INVESTMENT R 1 328 6 T illi SUMATERA JAWA KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALI -NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA -KEPULAUAN MALUKU SUMATERA JAWA KALIMANTAN SULAWESI BALI-NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA -KEPULAUAN MALUKU Rp. 1.328,6 Trillion NEW EMPLOYMENT 5.713,0 Thousand dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 52 ,
53. Employment Employment t to o b be Created e Created i in Each Economic Corridor n Each Economic Corridor SUMATERA CORIDOR KALIMANTAN CORIDOR SULAWESI CORIDOR SUMATERA CORIDOR Leading Sector: Palm Oil, Coal, and JSS (Sunda Strait Bridge) Leading Sector: Steel, Bauxite; Palm Oil, Coal; Oil and Timber Leading Sector: Nickel; Agriculture Food; Oil; Cocoa and Fisheries JAWA CORIDOR Leading Sector: Food BALI-NUSA TENGGARA PAPUA-MALUKU ISLANDS CORIDOR g Beverages, Textiles; Transportation Equipment; Shipping; iron steel, and defense CORIDOR Leading Sector: Tourism, Livestock and Fisheries Leading Sector: Nickel; Copper; Agriculture Food; Oil and Fishing NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) 93,9 188,0 1.704,2 693,4 241,0 3.422,4 NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) NEW EMPLOYMENT (Thousand) dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 53
54. Clusters Clusters o of Poverty Alleviation Programs f Poverty Alleviation Programs 3rd CLUSTER Micro- & Small-scale Enterprise Empowerment 1ST CLUSTER 2nd CLUSTER [Facilitate with fish rod] 3 CLUSTER [Assist to have fish-rod & boat] Assistance & Social Protection Programs Community Empowerment Programs Block grants for 6,408 sub- p p Micro credits provision (< Rp 5 million) through banks, & other types of [Provide fish] Target: 17.5 mil. poor HH: rice subsidy, cash transfers, health i & h l hi g districts (rural, urban, dis- advantaged regions, regional & village infrastructures) PNPM Mandiri , yp financial assistance insurance, & scholarships Target: the poorest, poor Target: poor communities of subdistricts Target: SMEs 4th Cluster & near poor Households 4 Cluster 6 Pro-Poor Programs and 3 additional programs dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 54 programs
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56. Political Update Political Update Political Update Political Update • Indonesia is coping well with democratic imperatives. – Strong parliament – Strong media – Strong civil society • Indonesia’s Democracy: t bl ib t d d i stable, vibrant and dynamic. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 56
57. • Political temperature is rising ahead of 2014 Parliament and Presidential Election. • With democracy comes: – Human rights – Freedom of association F d f i – Freedom of expression – Etc. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 57
58. • Giving rise to conflicts: Sectarian – Sectarian – Environmental – Local interest – Labor and wage disputes • Political implications of economic policies subsidy issue policies subsidy issue • Governance and Corruption Governance and Corruption Issues. • These are the challenges that g Indonesia as a young, functioning democracy has the cope with, wisely peacefully and fairly wisely, peacefully and fairly. dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 58
59. Indonesia Indonesia Japan Japan Indonesia Indonesia- -Japan Japan  BILATERAL  G to G  BILATERAL REGIONAL  G to G  REGIONAL  G to P  MULTILATERAL  P to G  P to P P to P dadang-solihin.blogspot.com 59
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