The Coming Technological Singularity

Transcript

1. Technological Singularity Its Coming ! Veeresh Taranalli 05EC64
2. The Technological Singularity • A concept that has become more recognized as we advance in technology • A concept that deals with the rate of our advance in technology • What we will discuss – What is the Technological Singularity? – Key proponents of the Singularity concept – How it could happen? – What technologies are advancing us in this direction? – Scenarios after the Singularity – Why this is not a figment of science fiction 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 2
3. What is The Technological Singularity? • Hypothesized creation of smarter-than-human entities • Machines can keep augmenting their own mental abilities • “The first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make” – Irving Good • Rapidly accelerate technological progress • Human beings no longer capable of participating 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 3
4. What is The Technological Singularity? • Intelligent Machines • Machines able to learn and evolve • Machine Intelligence that surpasses mankind‟s ability to understand • Technological Singularity not necessarily a good or bad event 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 4
5. What is The Technological Singularity? • Term first coined by Vernor Vinge – Former San Diego State University professor of computer science and mathematics – Used the term first in his 1993 presentation • Key proponent of the Singularity concept, Raymond Kurzweil. – Graduate of computer science at MIT, respected in field of artificial intelligence – The Law of Accelerating Returns 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 5
6. The Law of Accelerating Returns • Developed by computer scientist Raymond Kurzweil • Generalized version of Moore‟s Law • Technological advance increases at an exponential rate. • When a technology encounters a barrier, a new technology is created which takes its place. 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 6
7. How it could happen? • The AI Scenario – We create super-human artificial intelligence (AI) in computers • The IA Scenario – We enhance human intelligence through human-computer interfaces; that is, we achieve intelligence amplification 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 7
8. How it could happen? • The Internet Scenario – Humanity, its networks, computers, and databases become sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being • The Digital Gaia Scenario – The network of embedded processors becomes sufficiently effective to be called a superhuman being 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 8
9. How it could happen? • Soft Takeoff – The Singularity event could occur over a long period, possibly decades. • Hard Takeoff – The Singularity event would happen extremely fast, occurring over a matter of weeks or days 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 9
10. Singularity Enabling Technologies 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 10
11. Where are we currently? • The Blue Brain Project • Reverse Engineering the Brain – A project at Janelia Farm, Virginia (Kind of Bell Labs for neurobiology) • BrainGate – A brain implant developed by the bio-tech company Cyberkinetics along with Brown University (2003) 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 11
12. Where are we currently? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 12
13. Where are we currently? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 13
14. What After the Singularity? • Big Brother Scenario – A State which will control the whole life of its citizens through AI technology – Wealth gap between rich and poor countries increases – Privacy Invasions by ICT and Biometric Implants – Identifying Dissent 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 14
15. What after the Singularity? • The „Matrix‟ Scenario – AI technology able to replace humans at work – Massive unemployment? – People gradually spend more and more time in Virtual Worlds – Eventually forget about “real” world – Example: World of Warcraft has over 9M subscribers • More than the population of many countries • June 2005 child died due to neglect by her World of Warcraft- addicted parents in Korea 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 15
16. What after the Singularity? • The „Rise of the Machines‟ – US defense systems placed under the control of AI „Skynet‟ (Fiction) – Skynet becomes self-aware and is out to destroy humanity (Fiction) – How credible is this? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 16
17. What after the Singularity? • Most of the current research in AI is funded by the US military (DARPA) • As AI improves, tendency to give it more control (especially in time-critical situations) • USS Vincennes – Human Error – What if it was computer controlled? • Machines in control of military hardware seems credible 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 17
18. Is Singularity really real? • Singularities have already occurred in the past 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 18
19. Is Singularity really real? • The Singularity Summit at Stanford – To further understanding and discussion about the Singularity concept and the future of human technological progress – Founded as a venue for leading thinkers to explore the subject, whether scientist, enthusiast, or skeptic 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 19
20. Arguments against the Singularity • Have technological advances really accelerated? • Extrapolation  How valid is it? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 20
21. Some Difficult Questions… • Rights for Robots ? • If intelligent robots have rights, … Is it fair to create „disabled‟ robots for menial chores ? • Where to draw the line ? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 21
22. Some Difficult Questions… • Is it ethical to be moving towards a technological singularity, whether we mean to or not? • If we are striving to obtain advances that might one day be a harm to us, should we stop researching altogether? 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 22
23. References • IEEE Spectrum Magazine, Vol. 45, June 2008 • Vinge, Vernor (30-31 March 1993), The Coming Technological Singularity, Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science & Engineering in the Era of CyberSpace, proceedings of a Symposium held at NASA Lewis Research Center (NASA Conference Publication CP-10129) • Wikipedia Entry for Technological Singularity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity • The Blue Brain Project, http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/ • Wikipedia Entry for BrainGate, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BrainGate • Edsinger Domo, http://people.csail.mit.edu/edsinger/domo.htm • MERTZ: An active vision head robot for exploring social learning http://people.csail.mit.edu/lijin/mertz.html 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 23
24. References • Wikipedia Entry for ASIMO, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASIMO • Wikipedia Entry for USS Vincennes, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49) • The Singularity Summit at Stanford, http://www.singularitysummit.com • Human rights for robots? We’re getting carried away, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article1695546.ece 20 March 2009 Technical Seminar 24
25. THANK YOU !