Review: "Recommending Investors for Crowdfunding Projects"

http://yagays.github.io/blog/2014/07/09/www2014review-kickstarter/

Transcript

1. Recommending Investors for Crowdfunding Projects WWW 2014 Jisun An, Daniele Quercia, Jon Crowcroft ࿦จ঺հ @yag_ays 1
2. ࠓճ঺հ͢Δ࿦จͷ֓ཁ • “Recommending Investors for Crowdfunding Project” [Jisun+ 2014] • WWW 2014 (Seoul, KOREA) • Jisun AnͷYahoo Labs in Barcelona Πϯλʔϯγοϓͷ࢓ࣄ ! • ࠷ऴతͳ໨ඪɿKickstarterͷϑΝ΢ϯμʔͱग़ࢿऀͷϚονϯά • KickstarterͷϓϩδΣΫτ΍ग़ࢿऀͷ෼ੳϝΠϯͳͱ͜Ζ͕͋Δ 2
3. • Ϋϥ΢υϑΝϯσΟϯά • 2012೥ʹूΊͨ౤ࢿ૯ֹ$320 million • c.f. ౤ࢿՈ/ϕϯνϟʔΩϟϐλϧʹΑΔग़ࢿ ! • ϑΝ΢ϯμʔ͸໨ඪֹۚΛઃఆͯ͠౤ࢿΛืΔ • ౤ࢿՈ͸౤ࢿֹۚʹԠͯ͡ใु͕΋Β͑Δ • e.g. $100౤ࢿͰ੡඼1ݸϓϨθϯτɼ$300౤ࢿͰ੡඼5ݸϓϨθϯτ Kickstarterͱ͸ https://www.kickstarter.com/help/style_guide 3
4. Kickstarter੒ޭࣄྫ • Oculus Rift • 9,522 / $ 2,437,429 • Memoto (Narrative Clip) • 2,871 / $ 550,189 • Little Witch Academia 2 • 7,938 / $ 625,518 https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1523379957/oculus-rift-step-into-the-game https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/martinkallstrom/memoto-lifelogging-camera https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1311401276/little-witch-academia-2 4
5. Kickstarterͷಛघੑɿ౤ࢿʹࣦഊͨ͘͠ͳ͍͚Ͳ… • All or Nothing • ໨ඪֹۚʹୡ͠ͳ͚Ε͹ϓϩδΣΫτ͸ࣦഊɼ౤ࢿۚ͸શֹฦ٫ • ϓϩδΣΫτͷ੒ޭ/ࣦഊʹؔΘΒͣɼ౤ࢿऀ͸ଛΛ͠ͳ͍ ! • ιʔγϟϧͳଆ໘ • ॳظ౤ࢿʹ͸਌଒΍༑ୡ͕ଟ͍ʢ20-40%ͱ͍͏ࢉग़΋ʣ • े෼ͳ౤ࢿՈΛूΊΒΕͳ͍ͱϓϩδΣΫτ͕ࣦഊ͠΍͍͢ 5
6. ࿦จͷྲྀΕ • Kickstarterʹ͓͚Δ౤ࢿՈͷڍಈʹ͍ͭͯԾઆΛཱͯΔ • Kickstarter΍Twitterͷ৘ใ͔ΒԾઆΛݕূ͢Δ • ࣗಈతʹϑΝ΢ϯμʔͱ౤ࢿՈͷϚονϯάΛߦ͏ϞσϧΛཱͯΔ 6
7. Kickstarterͷσʔλऩू/ղੳ Dataset and Pledging Behavior 7
8. σʔληοτ • Kickstarter͔ΒΫϩʔϧ • 2013೥7݄͔Β10݄ʹొ࿥͞Εͨ΋ͷ • USA಺෦ͷϑΝϯυͷΈ • ߹ܭ 1,149ϓϩδΣΫτ/ 78,460ग़ࢿऀ • Twitter͔ΒΫϩʔϧ • ϓϩδΣΫτʹݴٴ͢ΔtweetͷΈ • ߹ܭ71,315 tweetΛऩू 8 (Average)
9. ౤ࢿՈͷߏ੒ • ߹ܭ78,460ਓͷग़ࢿऀ ! • 4ճະຬͷ౤ࢿΛͨ͠ਓ͸51% • ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿऀ “Occasional Investors” • 32ճҎ্ͷ౤ࢿΛͨ͠ਓ͸11% • ৗ࿈౤ࢿऀ “Frequent Investors” ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈ ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ 9
10. ϓϩδΣΫτͷΧςΰϦʔ͝ͱͷ౤ࢿऀͷ಺༁ • Music, DanceͳͲ͸୯ൃͷग़ࢿ͕ଟ͍ • Games͸ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ͕ଟ͍ˠେن໛ͳήʔϜ։ൃͷืूͳͲ 10
11. ౤ࢿՈͷڍಈʹؔ͢ΔԾઆ • ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ͸ҎԼͷΑ͏ͳੑ࣭ͷϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿ͠΍͍͢ • ৘ใ͕සൟʹΞοϓσʔτ͞ΕΔ • ϑΝ΢ϯμʔ͕౤ࢿՈͷ࣭໰ʹ౴͑Δ • ౤ࢿͷใु͕ྑ͍ • ߴ͍౤ࢿֹۚͷϓϩδΣΫτ͸ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈʹ౤ࢿ͞Ε΍͍͢ • ϩʔΧϧͳϓϩδΣΫτ͸ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈʹ౤ࢿ͞Ε΍͍͢ • ૣ͘౤ࢿΛूΊΔϓϩδΣΫτ͸ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈʹ౤ࢿ͞Ε΍͍͢ • ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ͸ࣗ෼ͷڵຯ͋ΔϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿ͠΍͍͢ 11
12. ϓϩδΣΫτͰ஫໨͢Δಛ௃ྔ • ϓϩδΣΫτͷߋ৽਺ • ϑΝ΢ϯμʔͷίϝϯτ਺ • ใुͷϨϕϧ • ΢ΣϒαΠτͷ༗ແ • ໨ඪֹۚ ($) • ஍ཧతͳڑ཭ͷ͹Β͖ͭ • ϓϩδΣΫτͷ੒௕཰ 12
13. ͦΕͧΕͷಛ௃ྔ͝ͱͷ౤ࢿऀͷ಺༁ ϓϩδΣΫτͷߋ৽਺ ϑΝ΢ϯμʔͷίϝϯτ਺ ใुͷϨϕϧ 13 ಛ௃ྔͷ஋͕૿͑Δ΄Ͳʹৗ࿈౤ࢿՈͷׂ߹͕૿Ճ͢Δ
14. ͦΕͧΕͷಛ௃ྔ͝ͱͷ౤ࢿऀͷ಺༁ (cont’d) ໨ඪֹۚ ($) ஍ཧతͳڑ཭ͷ͹Β͖ͭ ϓϩδΣΫτͷ੒௕཰ 14 ໨ඪֹ͕ۚ૿Ճ͢Δ΄Ͳʹ ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈͷׂ߹͕ݮগ͢Δ ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈͷ౤ࢿ͸ ੒௕཰ʹӨڹ͞Εͳ͍
15. Ծઆɿ౤ࢿՈͷڵຯͱ౤ࢿઌͷؔ܎ • LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) Λ࢖ͬͨτϐοΫͷྨࣅ౓ • ౤ࢿͨ͠ϓϩδΣΫτͷ֓ཁͱ౤ࢿՈͷTweetͷ಺༰ (200 tweetsఔ౓) • (τϐοΫ਺͸Ṗ) ! • ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ͸ࣗ෼ͷڵຯ͋Δෳ਺ͷτϐοΫʹ౤ࢿ͕ͪ͠ • ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈ͸ࣗ෼ͷڵຯͱ͸ؔ܎ͳ͍τϐοΫʹ౤ࢿ or ͻͱͭͷτ ϐοΫʹภͬͯ౤ࢿ͍ͯ͠Δ 15
16. ͜͜·Ͱͷ·ͱΊ • ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ (4ϲ݄ؒʹ32ճҎ্౤ࢿͨ͠Frequent Investors) • Α͘Ϛωʔδϝϯτ͞Εɼ໨ඪֹ͕ۚߴ͘ɼࣗ෼ͷڵຯʹ߹͏ϓϩδΣ Ϋτʹ౤ࢿ͢Δ܏޲ʹ͋Δ • ௨ৗͷ౤ࢿՈͷΑ͏ͳڍಈΛࣔ͢ • ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈ (4ϲ݄ؒʹ4ճະຬͷ౤ࢿΛͨ͠Occasional Investors) • ࠓճબΜͩಛ௃ྔʹ͋·ΓӨڹ͞Εͣ౤ࢿΛߦ͏ • ౤ࢿͱ͍͏ΑΓ΋د෇ͱ͍͏ײ͡ 16
17. ืूऀͷ༑ୡ͕ଟ͍΄Ͳ୯ൃͷग़ࢿׂ߹͕૿͑Δ • ϑΝ΢ϯμʔͷFacebookͷ༑ୡͷ਺ͱ ౤ࢿՈͷ಺༁ͷؔ܎ • ҼՌؔ܎͸ෆ໌ ! • Facebookͷ༑ୡͷ਺͕ଟ͍΄Ͳؾ·͙ Ε౤ࢿՈΛूΊ΍͍͢ • Facebookͷ༑ୡͷ਺͕গͳ͍΄Ͳৗ࿈ ౤ࢿՈΛूΊ΍͍͢…??? 17
18. ϑΝ΢ϯμʔͱग़ࢿऀͷϚονϯά Recommending Investors 18
19. ϓϩδΣΫτͱ౤ࢿՈͷϚονϯάํ๏ • Twitterʹ͍Δજࡏతͳ౤ࢿՈʹରͯ͠ϓϩδΣΫτΛਪન͢Δ • KickstarterͷϢʔβ໊͔ΒTwitterͷΞΧ΢ϯτΛඥ෇͚ • 7,429ਓͷ౤ࢿՈ͕891ͷϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿͨ͠σʔλΛݩʹਪન • ౤ࢿऀ͕౤ࢿ͢Δ= 1ɼ౤ࢿऀ͕౤ࢿ͠ͳ͍ = 0ͱͨ͠ೋ஋෼ྨ ! • Ϋϩʔϧͨ͠σʔλ͸ਖ਼ྫͷΈͳͷͰɼϥϯμϜͰෛྫΛࠞͥΔ • ਖ਼ྫෛྫͷׂ߹͸50-50 19
20. Ϩίϝϯσʔγϣϯͷख๏ͱධՁํ๏ • ੑೳධՁ͢Δख๏4ͭ : {LR, SVM-linear, SVM-poly, SVM-RBF} • ϩδεςΟοΫճؼʢLRʣ • 3छྨͷΧʔωϧΛ༻͍ͨSVM ʢLinear, polynomial, RBFʣ ! • ධՁɿ5-fold cross validation • σʔληοτͷ80%Ͱֶशˠ20%ͰධՁ Λ5ճ܁Γฦͯ͠ධՁΛฏۉ 20
21. ࢖༻͢Δಛ௃ྔ • Static Feature: ϓϩδΣΫτൃ଍࣌ʹΘ͔Δಛ௃ྔ • ໨ඪֹۚɾใुͷϨϕϧɾաڈʹ౤ࢿͨ͠ϓϩδΣΫτͷΧςΰϦɾ Twitterͷ౤ߘʹΑΔ౤ࢿՈͷڵຯ • Dynamic Feature: ϓϩδΣΫτͷਐߦʹΑͬͯ൑໌ͯ͘͠Δಛ௃ྔ • ϓϩδΣΫτͷ੒ޭ཰ɾߋ৽਺ɾίϝϯτ਺ɾ஍ཧతͳڑ཭ͷ͹Β͖ͭ 21
22. ϨίϝϯσʔγϣϯͷධՁ • RBFΧʔωϧΛ༻͍ͨSVM • Static͚ͩͷಛ௃ྔ ɿ82% • Dynamic͚ͩͷಛ௃ྔɿ73% ! • StaticͱDynamicΛ߹ΘͤΔͱACC 84% ! • ਖ਼ྫෛྫͷׂ߹͕50-50ɿϕʔεϥΠϯ͸50% ACC : Accuracy P : Precision R : Recall F1 : F-score AUC : ROCۂઢԼͷ໘ੵ 22
23. Ͳͷಛ௃ྔ͕ޮ͍͍ͯΔͷ͔ʁ • C : ίϝϯτ਺ • R : ใुͷϨϕϧ • S : ஍ཧతͳڑ཭ͷ͹Β͖ͭ • G: ੒௕཰ • E : ΧςΰϦʔͷҰக౓ • TS: ڵຯ͋ΔτϐοΫͱͷྨࣅ౓ →EͱTS͕ਫ਼౓޲্ʹد༩͍ͯ͠Δ 23
24. ࿦จͷ·ͱΊ • ౤ࢿՈʹΑͬͯKickstarterͷ౤ࢿελΠϧ͕ҧ͏ • ৗ࿈౤ࢿՈ͸໺৺తͳϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿ͢Δ • ؾ·͙Ε౤ࢿՈ͸د෇ײ֮Ͱ౤ࢿ / ܳज़ʹؔ࿈ͨ͠ϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿ • ౤ࢿՈͱϓϩδΣΫτͷϚονϯά͸Մೳ • ౤ࢿՈ͕ϓϩδΣΫτʹ౤ࢿΛ͢Δ͔Ͳ͏͔͸84%ͷਫ਼౓ͰਪଌՄೳ • ౤ࢿՈͷڵຯ͋ΔΧςΰϦʔ΍಺༰͕Ϛονϯάʹڧ͘Өڹ͢Δ 24