Stochastic Space Exploration

Stochastic Space Exploration

These are slides from my presentation at the 2011 AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference in Portlannd, Oregon.

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Zac Manchester

August 10, 2011
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Transcript

  1. Why you should trade your $500M spacecraft for 500 million

    $1 spacecraft STOCHASTIC SPACE EXPLORATION WITH MICROSCALE SPACECRAFT Zachary Manchester Space Systems Design Studio Cornell University
  2. •  Capabilities •  Work Done at Cornell •  Future Developments

    MICROSCALE SPACECRAFT 2
  3. WHAT CAN WE DO WITH A CHIPSAT? 3

  4. WHERE WE ARE… Solar Cells Microcontroller Radio Chip Antenna 3.8

    cm Energy Storage Capacitor DC-DC Power Converter 4
  5. WHERE WE'RE HEADING… Solar Cells Radio Passive Components Microcontroller GPS

    Receiver Battery Dipole Antenna 5
  6. •  The Way Space Exploration Works Now •  The Big

    Picture •  Asteroid Impact Example •  Conclusions STOCHASTIC SPACE EXPLORATION 6
  7. HOW IT’S DONE NOW 7 New Horizons Envisat

  8. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS Series Components Probability of Success 8

  9. A NEW PARADIGM Probability of Success Number of ChipSats 9

  10. •  Don’t think about individual ChipSats •  Manage the statistics

    of the cloud •  Use little or no closed-loop control •  Take advantage of environmental effects HOW DO WE PLAN MISSIONS? f(qi, ˙ qi, t) @f @t + @f @qi ˙ qi + @f @ ˙ qi ¨ qi = 0 @f @t µ r2 @f @ ˙ r + ˙ r @f @r + ˙ ✓ @f @✓ + ˙ @f @ = 0 10
  11. •  2011 MD •  Near Earth Object (NEO) •  Passed

    within 12,000 km of Earth •  Diameter 10-50 meters •  Impact Mission •  Deploy ChipSats from a carrier spacecraft •  Maximize number that impact •  Survivors transmit sensor data to carrier ASTEROID IMPACT MISSION 11
  12. ASTEROID POSITION KNOWLEDGE Range (km) Range Error (km) Angular Error

    (km) 12
  13. CHIPSAT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION 13 Level Surface at Timpact : Level

    Surface at Deployment:
  14. •  Calculate impact probabilities by integrating probability flux through asteroid

    surface •  Calculate confidence bounds by repeating for different trajectories and asteroid sizes •  Pimpact = 1.4% •  90% Confidence Interval 0.16% - 2.4% •  Impact Survival ASTEROID IMPACT 14
  15. CONCLUSIONS •  Because of their small size and low cost,

    ChipSats can be deployed in large numbers •  Probabilities and confidence intervals associated with mission objectives can be rigorously calculated •  Successful missions can be designed even for very low probabilities of individual success 15 FUTURE WORK •  Impact survival model •  Include perturbations and uncertainty in dynamics •  Develop a general mission planning framework
  16. 16 Questions?

  17. Why you should trade your $500M spacecraft for 500 million

    $1 spacecraft STOCHASTIC SPACE EXPLORATION WITH MICROSCALE SPACECRAFT Zachary Manchester Space Systems Design Studio Cornell University