Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease

Slides for a presentation delivered by Associate Prof. Adam H. Sparks, DPIRD and USQ, and Dr. Paul Melloy, USQ, to CHaBits (Consortium for Heat and Biotic Stresses) organised by Dr Krishna Jagadish, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA on the effects of climate change on plant disease. The video recording can be found on the CHaBits YouTube: https://youtu.be/PO958Vhdiss.

Transcript

1. Climate change will create
   winners and losers in the fight
   against plant disease
   

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2. Senior Research Scientist - Bioeconomic Modeller, DPIRD
   WA
   Dr Adam Sparks
   

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3. Research Fellow University of Southern Queensland, Centre
   for Crop Health
   Dr Paul Melloy
   

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4. Current Losses
   40%
   IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests –
   A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems.
   Rome. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en
   

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5. Major Pathogen Groups
   

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6. Prokaryotes
   

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7. Oomycetes
   Penn State Department of Plant Pathology &
   Environmental Microbiology Archives,
   Penn State University, Bugwood.org
   Charles Averre, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org
   

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10. Parasitic plants
    USDA APHIS PPQ– Oxford, North
    Carolina, USDA APHIS PPQ,
    Bugwood.org
    

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11. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000.
    Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor.
    DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
    

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12. Historical Notes
    Donald Groth,
    Louisiana State University AgCenter,
    Bugwood.org
    Dr Parthasarathy Seethapathy,
    Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
    Bugwood.org
    

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13. Tom Creswell, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org
    

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14. Plant Disease Triangle
    Pathogen
    Host
    Environment
    

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15. Plant Disease Triangle
    Pathogen
    Host
    Environment
    

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16. Plant Disease Triangle
    Pathogen
    Host
    Environment
    

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17. Plant Disease Triangle
    Pathogen
    Host Environment
    Disease!
    

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18. Observed Effects of Climate Change on Plant Diseases
    

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19. Relationships
    ●
    Ability/Inability to infect
    ●
    Overwintering
    ●
    Host phenology
    ●
    Feedback loops
    

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20. Figure 24.2: Garrett et al. 2021,
    DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00024-4
    Interactions and potential outcomes
    

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21. Migrations
    

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22. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000.
    Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor.
    DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
    

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23. Pierce’s Disease
    ENSA-Montpellier,
    Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Montpellier,
    Bugwood.org
    

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24. PD Migration?
    

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25. Changes in the Pathogen
    Pathogen
    Host Environment
    Disease!
    

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26. Stripe (Yellow) Rust in the USA
    Gerald Holmes, Strawberry Center, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Bugwood.org
    

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28. Effect of CO2 on plant diseases
    

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29. Winners and Losers
    Crop Disease CO2 effect References
    Barley Powdery Mildew Increased resistance Hibberd et al. (1996)
    Wheat Crown rot
    Powdery Mildew
    Leaf & stem rust
    Fusarium head blight
    Increased susceptibility – genotype
    dependent
    Increased susceptibility
    Lower susceptibility – genotype
    dependant
    Melloy et al. (2010), (2014)
    Bencze et al. (2013)
    Rice Blast
    Nematodes (Psilenchus)
    Increased susceptibility
    Increased populations
    Kobayashi et al. (2006)
    Li et al. (2007)
    Maize Smut Increase/decrease Pathogen species
    dependent
    Manning & Tiedemann
    (1995)
    Arabidopsis Powdery mildew Increased susceptibility – Infection
    duration dependant
    Lake and Wade, 2009
    Stylosanthes Anthracnose Induced resistance
    Rapid evolution to overcome resistance
    Chakraborty and Datta
    (2003) (2004)
    

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30. Effect of CO2 on crown rot in wheat
    Glasshouse trials
    Interaction between temperature and CO2
    Controlled environment facility
    Genotype dependant disease
    response to CO2
    

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31. Free Air Carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) trials
    

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32. CO2 effect not as simple as first imagined
    Kazan (2018)
    • CO2
    effects can be mediated by other environmental
    effects
    • Temperature, O3, Nitrogen, soil moisture
    • CO2
    affects phytohormone defence pathways.
    • CO2
    affects mycotoxin biosynthesis.
    

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33. Evidence From Simulated (Modelling) Experiments
    

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34. Current potato late blight risk
    

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35. Future potato late blight risk
    Kenya
    Rwanda
    Malawi
    

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36. Countries with high emphasis on potato and high malnutrition
    

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37. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf
    blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3).
    RICEPEST
    2000 2030 2050
    0
    10
    20
    30
    40
    25
    50
    75
    100
    125
    25
    50
    75
    100
    125
    25
    50
    75
    100
    125
    Day of Season
    Leaf Coverage by Bacterial Leaf Blight Lesions (%)
    Emission
    Scenario
    A1B
    A2
    B1
    Base
    Bacterial Blight in TZA
    Leaf Blast and Bacterial Blight in Tanzanian Rice
    

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38. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf
    blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3).
    Change in Yield Loss due to Bacterial Blight, Tanzania
    

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39. Figure 1: Garrett et al. 2006,
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420
    Potential effects and research needs
    

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40. Ruling Out Competing Explanations
    • Pathogen known to have been present
    • Genetic compositions have not shifted
    • Cultural practices have not changed
    • Requirements and interactions are well understood
    • Change has been observed long enough to establish a
    convincing trend
    • Need long-term records
    

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41. Evidence of Changing Patterns
    

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42. Summary
    

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43. Thank you
    Visit dpird.wa.gov.au
    Important disclaimer
    The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional
    Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of
    negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
    © State of Western Australia 2018
    

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