Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease

Slides for a presentation delivered by Associate Prof. Adam H. Sparks, DPIRD and USQ, and Dr. Paul Melloy, USQ, to CHaBits (Consortium for Heat and Biotic Stresses) organised by Dr Krishna Jagadish, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA on the effects of climate change on plant disease. The video recording can be found on the CHaBits YouTube: https://youtu.be/PO958Vhdiss.

Transcript

1. Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease
2. Senior Research Scientist - Bioeconomic Modeller, DPIRD WA Dr Adam Sparks
3. Research Fellow University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Crop Health Dr Paul Melloy
4. Current Losses 40% IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the impact of climate change on plant pests – A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. Rome. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en
5. Major Pathogen Groups
6. Prokaryotes
7. Oomycetes Penn State Department of Plant Pathology & Environmental Microbiology Archives, Penn State University, Bugwood.org Charles Averre, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org
10. Parasitic plants USDA APHIS PPQ– Oxford, North Carolina, USDA APHIS PPQ, Bugwood.org
11. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
12. Historical Notes Donald Groth, Louisiana State University AgCenter, Bugwood.org Dr Parthasarathy Seethapathy, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Bugwood.org
13. Tom Creswell, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org
14. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment
15. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment
16. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment
17. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment Disease!
18. Observed Effects of Climate Change on Plant Diseases
19. Relationships • Ability/Inability to infect • Overwintering • Host phenology • Feedback loops
20. Figure 24.2: Garrett et al. 2021, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00024-4 Interactions and potential outcomes
21. Migrations
22. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A. 2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
23. Pierce’s Disease ENSA-Montpellier, Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Montpellier, Bugwood.org
24. PD Migration?
25. Changes in the Pathogen Pathogen Host Environment Disease!
26. Stripe (Yellow) Rust in the USA Gerald Holmes, Strawberry Center, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Bugwood.org
28. Effect of CO2 on plant diseases
29. Winners and Losers Crop Disease CO2 effect References Barley Powdery Mildew Increased resistance Hibberd et al. (1996) Wheat Crown rot Powdery Mildew Leaf & stem rust Fusarium head blight Increased susceptibility – genotype dependent Increased susceptibility Lower susceptibility – genotype dependant Melloy et al. (2010), (2014) Bencze et al. (2013) Rice Blast Nematodes (Psilenchus) Increased susceptibility Increased populations Kobayashi et al. (2006) Li et al. (2007) Maize Smut Increase/decrease Pathogen species dependent Manning & Tiedemann (1995) Arabidopsis Powdery mildew Increased susceptibility – Infection duration dependant Lake and Wade, 2009 Stylosanthes Anthracnose Induced resistance Rapid evolution to overcome resistance Chakraborty and Datta (2003) (2004)
30. Effect of CO2 on crown rot in wheat Glasshouse trials Interaction between temperature and CO2 Controlled environment facility Genotype dependant disease response to CO2
31. Free Air Carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) trials
32. CO2 effect not as simple as first imagined Kazan (2018) • CO2 effects can be mediated by other environmental effects • Temperature, O3, Nitrogen, soil moisture • CO2 affects phytohormone defence pathways. • CO2 affects mycotoxin biosynthesis.
33. Evidence From Simulated (Modelling) Experiments
34. Current potato late blight risk
35. Future potato late blight risk Kenya Rwanda Malawi
36. Countries with high emphasis on potato and high malnutrition
37. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3). RICEPEST 2000 2030 2050 0 10 20 30 40 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 Day of Season Leaf Coverage by Bacterial Leaf Blight Lesions (%) Emission Scenario A1B A2 B1 Base Bacterial Blight in TZA Leaf Blast and Bacterial Blight in Tanzanian Rice
38. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3). Change in Yield Loss due to Bacterial Blight, Tanzania
39. Figure 1: Garrett et al. 2006, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420 Potential effects and research needs
40. Ruling Out Competing Explanations • Pathogen known to have been present • Genetic compositions have not shifted • Cultural practices have not changed • Requirements and interactions are well understood • Change has been observed long enough to establish a convincing trend • Need long-term records
41. Evidence of Changing Patterns
42. Summary
43. Thank you Visit dpird.wa.gov.au Important disclaimer The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it. © State of Western Australia 2018