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Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease

Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight against plant disease

Slides for a presentation delivered by Associate Prof. Adam H. Sparks, DPIRD and USQ, and Dr. Paul Melloy, USQ, to CHaBits (Consortium for Heat and Biotic Stresses) organised by Dr Krishna Jagadish, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA on the effects of climate change on plant disease. The video recording can be found on the CHaBits YouTube: https://youtu.be/PO958Vhdiss.

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Adam H. Sparks

July 01, 2021
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Transcript

  1. Climate change will create winners and losers in the fight

    against plant disease
  2. Senior Research Scientist - Bioeconomic Modeller, DPIRD WA Dr Adam

    Sparks
  3. Research Fellow University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Crop Health

    Dr Paul Melloy
  4. Current Losses 40% IPPC Secretariat. 2021. Scientific review of the

    impact of climate change on plant pests – A global challenge to prevent and mitigate plant pest risks in agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. Rome. FAO on behalf of the IPPC Secretariat. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4769en
  5. Major Pathogen Groups

  6. Prokaryotes

  7. Oomycetes Penn State Department of Plant Pathology & Environmental Microbiology

    Archives, Penn State University, Bugwood.org Charles Averre, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org
  8. None
  9. None
  10. Parasitic plants USDA APHIS PPQ– Oxford, North Carolina, USDA APHIS

    PPQ, Bugwood.org
  11. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A.

    2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
  12. Historical Notes Donald Groth, Louisiana State University AgCenter, Bugwood.org Dr

    Parthasarathy Seethapathy, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Bugwood.org
  13. Tom Creswell, North Carolina State University, Bugwood.org

  14. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

  15. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

  16. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment

  17. Plant Disease Triangle Pathogen Host Environment Disease!

  18. Observed Effects of Climate Change on Plant Diseases

  19. Relationships • Ability/Inability to infect • Overwintering • Host phenology

    • Feedback loops
  20. Figure 24.2: Garrett et al. 2021, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00024-4 Interactions and

    potential outcomes
  21. Migrations

  22. Spores: M. J. Berkeley, Gardeners' Chronicle 1869 via Arneson, P.A.

    2000. Coffee rust. The Plant Health Instructor. DOI: 10.1094/PHI-I-2000-0718-02
  23. Pierce’s Disease ENSA-Montpellier, Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Montpellier, Bugwood.org

  24. PD Migration?

  25. Changes in the Pathogen Pathogen Host Environment Disease!

  26. Stripe (Yellow) Rust in the USA Gerald Holmes, Strawberry Center,

    Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Bugwood.org
  27. None
  28. Effect of CO2 on plant diseases

  29. Winners and Losers Crop Disease CO2 effect References Barley Powdery

    Mildew Increased resistance Hibberd et al. (1996) Wheat Crown rot Powdery Mildew Leaf & stem rust Fusarium head blight Increased susceptibility – genotype dependent Increased susceptibility Lower susceptibility – genotype dependant Melloy et al. (2010), (2014) Bencze et al. (2013) Rice Blast Nematodes (Psilenchus) Increased susceptibility Increased populations Kobayashi et al. (2006) Li et al. (2007) Maize Smut Increase/decrease Pathogen species dependent Manning & Tiedemann (1995) Arabidopsis Powdery mildew Increased susceptibility – Infection duration dependant Lake and Wade, 2009 Stylosanthes Anthracnose Induced resistance Rapid evolution to overcome resistance Chakraborty and Datta (2003) (2004)
  30. Effect of CO2 on crown rot in wheat Glasshouse trials

    Interaction between temperature and CO2 Controlled environment facility Genotype dependant disease response to CO2
  31. Free Air Carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) trials

  32. CO2 effect not as simple as first imagined Kazan (2018)

    • CO2 effects can be mediated by other environmental effects • Temperature, O3, Nitrogen, soil moisture • CO2 affects phytohormone defence pathways. • CO2 affects mycotoxin biosynthesis.
  33. Evidence From Simulated (Modelling) Experiments

  34. Current potato late blight risk

  35. Future potato late blight risk Kenya Rwanda Malawi

  36. Countries with high emphasis on potato and high malnutrition

  37. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial

    modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3). RICEPEST 2000 2030 2050 0 10 20 30 40 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 25 50 75 100 125 Day of Season Leaf Coverage by Bacterial Leaf Blight Lesions (%) Emission Scenario A1B A2 B1 Base Bacterial Blight in TZA Leaf Blast and Bacterial Blight in Tanzanian Rice
  38. Duku, C., Sparks, A. H. and Zwart, S. 2016. Spatial

    modelling of rice yield losses in Tanzania due to bacterial leaf blight and leaf blast in a changing climate. Climatic Change 135(3). Change in Yield Loss due to Bacterial Blight, Tanzania
  39. Figure 1: Garrett et al. 2006, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420 Potential effects

    and research needs
  40. Ruling Out Competing Explanations • Pathogen known to have been

    present • Genetic compositions have not shifted • Cultural practices have not changed • Requirements and interactions are well understood • Change has been observed long enough to establish a convincing trend • Need long-term records
  41. Evidence of Changing Patterns

  42. Summary

  43. Thank you Visit dpird.wa.gov.au Important disclaimer The Chief Executive Officer

    of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it. © State of Western Australia 2018