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Completing the Picture: Integrating Plant Disease Into Ag Systems Modelling

Adam H. Sparks
February 05, 2019

Completing the Picture: Integrating Plant Disease Into Ag Systems Modelling

I present four scenarios that cover various spatial and temporal scales where plant disease models can be used to help inform growers or researchers. This was presented for the official opening of the USQ Agriculture Systems and Engineering Precinct in Toowoomba as a part of a symposium on the future of agriculture.

Adam H. Sparks

February 05, 2019
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  1. CRICOS QLD 00244B | NSW 02225M TEQSA: PRV12081
    Completing the Picture
    Integrating Plant Disease Into Ag Systems
    Modelling
    Adam Sparks
    USQ Centre for Crop Health

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  2. PeDiMIP:
    Pests and Diseases Model
    Intercomparison Project
    Holzworth et al. “APSIM - Evolution towards a New Generation of Agricultural
    Systems Simulation.” Environmental Modelling & Software 62
    (December 2014): 327–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.009.

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  3. Problems
    Four
    that modelling can help solve across different scales

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  4. 1. Pre-season decisions on where and what
    to plant
    2. In-season decisions to treat disease
    3. Post-season definitions of where, when
    and why there are yield limitations
    regionally
    4. Future estimates of yield limiting factors
    nationally

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  5. Pre-season
    Crop
    Previous Season
    Low Medium
    Low High
    Medium
    Moderate
    Low Low
    Low
    Next Season Risk
    Dr. Paul Melloy

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  6. 5 20
    3 0
    18 10
    20 25
    27 24
    25 23
    3.5 3.2
    3.6 3.6
    Satellite-derived,
    georeferenced data
    x
    y
    y
    x
    y
    Georeferenced
    Yield Loss
    Estimates
    x
    y
    Precip
    Temp
    Tons/HA
    In-Paddock
    Survey
    x
    Crop & Disease
    Model
    Post-season

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  7. Map data ©2019 GBRMPA, Google & SARDI PIRSA
    Low
    Medium
    High
    Below Detection Limit
    Disease Risk
    P. thornei 2018
    Future-looking

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  8. Crop
    Diseases
    Holzworth et al. “APSIM - Evolution towards a New Generation of Agricultural
    Systems Simulation.” Environmental Modelling & Software 62
    (December 2014): 327–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.009.

    View full-size slide

  9. Find out more:
    CRICOS QLD 00244B | NSW 02225M TEQSA: PRV12081
    7 4631 1948
    https://www.facebook.com/CCHUSQ
    https://twitter.com/CCH_USQ
    [email protected]
    Broad Acre Cropping Initiative

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